Quote Originally Posted by Global Scout View Post
The fact remains that irregulars achieved their goal, and just as in Vietnam it doesn't necessarily matter who actually wins the individual battles. This conventional mindset still blinds our military to the reality that in irregular warfare the fight is to shape the perceptions of the population (and other target audiences), not destroy the opposing military forces, because they know they can't.

We need to evaluate how the Hezbollah utilized tactical operations to defeat Israel in the last campaign, not how they used tactical operations to defeat the IDF, because they didn't, but then once again that wasn't the point.

We have this habit of saying we kicked their butt based on metrics that simply are not important, when we're actually getting our butt handed to us if you look at the metrics that count.
I added the bold because I think the statement needs to be evaluated. Defeat is an interesting word, true defeat for Israel means no more Israel, but Global Scout states defeat in the campaign, a much more microcosmic defeat. One that could sow the seeds of true defeat if Israel isn't careful.

Irregular forces have throughout history demonstrated an ability to quickly achieve a salient, to make a break through and to defend thick forest or urban areas. They have also proven that they generally lack the sustainment power to press salients-meaning continue attacks into foriegn terrain. On the defense side however they are highly effective and with the local population in support they have long legs and are capable of sustaining their defense against heavy attacks.

What I was getting at (with the reference to the stormtroops) was exactly that defensively they (irregulars) can conduct local counter attacks and prolong a defensive stand so long as a local population can render support. In the offense however they run into serious logistic problems, they are lacking in sustainanbility when attacking into unsupportive terrritory, their ability to live off the land diminishes. The stormtroops of WWI required massive supply and this is one of the reasons they faltered (there are too many reasons to discuss here maybe on a seperate thread).

Why I bring this up is because it comes back to the intent of the operation. The intent of Hezbollahs operation was what? I will give it a simplified answer: to provoke the IDF to attack into thier territory and to give the IDF a black eye, thereby gaining experience fighting the IDF and gaining a lot of support via a strong IO campaign. It hurt Israel, but they recover. It hurt Hezbollah but they too recover. The Arab World still hates Israel, no real substantive change there and Israel still exists again no change.

My question is has something changed? Can an irregular force bring about the defeat of a first rate power, and i mean true defeat, on its own? I do not believe it could not even if they had the perfect IO campaign along with it.

Could an assault by Hezbollah irregulars take down (or initiate the demise) of Israel proper? Possibly yes, If they made serious headway into Israel (like the NVA/VC in Tet) seizing multiple towns in the north and set in like the VC/NVA at Hue City. AND if the bordering Arab states (smelling blood) rushed in to provide them support. AND IF the Palestinians rose up to join the Hezbollah. Then Hezbollah fighters could take out Israel.

BUT the Hezbollah irregulars could not do it on their own. Once they entered Israel the population would be against them and their supply lines would be exposed. If they tried it on their own and no one rushed to thier aid with resupply then they would falter, become isolated, then be hunted and trapped or forced to withdraw. Again they can hurt Israel but on their own they cannot take Israel out.