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  1. #1
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    I just finished this report last night, along with those "Lessons Learned" pieces on the subject by CSIS - Cordesman. Based off what I read, it appears that Hizb'allah did a considerable amount of damage regardless of the fact as you point out, that there is no mention of the use of mortars or SAMs. However, the report estimates that they were able to engage 48 of 400 tanks that were involved in the operation, and hit over 6,000 homes/business with their rockets, killing or wounding 4800. Thus, while incapable of mitigating the damage done by the Israeli Air Force, they certainly could counter a ground offensive. In the end, our friends the British, Germans, Vietnamese, and Serbs all demonstrated that a determined foe can survive and thrive during a sustained air campaign in the absence of a credible ground threat. In the end, Hizb'allah surely appear to be the "winners" if there was one.

    While Hizb'allah is on the short list of FTOs with the US, I definitely think it would cross-over into a different category with the US and the EU if they received a significant quantity of SAMs. I would imagine that the "most-likely" nightmare scenario for most counter-terrorism folks remains a civilian airliner being downed by a missile fired from a lone gunmen (SAM operator).
    Last edited by Strickland; 10-12-2006 at 12:15 PM.

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    I believe this is the CSIS piece that Strickland is referring to:

    Preliminary "Lessons" of the Israeli-Hezbollah War

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    Council Member aktarian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    After reading this report I'm wondering how would Hezbollah perform if they could use SAM's as close protection agains Israeli air force. What is your oppinion?
    If they would be MANPADS IDF/AF would counter it with different flying procedures and defence measures (something similar to what Soviets had to do in Afghanistan), if it would be any sort of radar guidiance those radars would be first and high priority targets for ARM strikes.

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    As far as I did understand, big part in countering the rockets was done by armed drones.

    http://www.defensetech.org/archives/....html#comments

    Katyshas with lower trajectory went unnoticed. The same phenomena was/is in Iraq, where guerillas shot mortars with very low angle. This kind of modus oprandi was very hard to detect for counter battery radars.

    In Afganistan the appearce of Stingers changed Soviet tactics against guerillas. They had to fly much higher which ment that accuracy of their attacks was never the same.

    In Kosovo/Serbia campiagn the SAM threat made US Air Force very careful. There was unbeliveable number of Wild Weasels per bombers. It would be great media boost for Hezbollah to have 1 downed F-16 or even drone. ... but maybe Iranian sponsors knew that Israelies have some kind of counter measures that make all attempts futile. If I remember correctly Isrealis boastes some time ago that their Air Force does have contermeasures against S-300 (aybe they ment those decoys that US used also against Iraq). There has been talk about anti-SAM lasers for airliners. Maybe fighter planes have those also. If palnes could afford them, I doubt drones do.

    It would be very interesting to know why Hezbollah didn't use those simple portable weapons despite the fact that sponsors could afford that.

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    Here's the first two parts of a three-part series being published in the Asia Times:

    12 Oct 06: Part 1: Winning the Intelligence War
    ...Our overall conclusion contradicts the current point of view being retailed by some White House and Israeli officials: that Israel's offensive in Lebanon significantly damaged Hezbollah's ability to wage war, that Israel successfully degraded Hezbollah's military ability to prevail in a future conflict, and that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), once deployed in large numbers in southern Lebanon, were able to prevail over their foes and dictate a settlement favorable to the Israeli political establishment.

    Just the opposite is true. From the onset of the conflict to its last operations, Hezbollah commanders successfully penetrated Israel's strategic and tactical decision-making cycle across a spectrum of intelligence, military and political operations, with the result that Hezbollah scored a decisive and complete victory in its war with Israel...
    13 Oct 06: Part 2: Winning the Ground War
    ...Moreover, and more significant, Hezbollah's fighters proved to be dedicated and disciplined. Using intelligence assets to pinpoint Israeli infantry penetrations, they proved the equal of Israel's best fighting units. In some cases, Israeli units were defeated on the field of battle, forced into sudden retreats or forced to rely on air cover to save elements from being overrun. Even toward the end of the war, on August 9, the IDF announced that 15 of its reserve soldiers were killed and 40 wounded in fighting in the villages of Marjayoun, Khiam and Kila - a stunning casualty rate for a marginal piece of real estate...
    Edit to add: 14 Oct 06: Part 3: The Political War
    Last edited by Jedburgh; 10-15-2006 at 09:54 PM.

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    Default Hizballah threat

    Hi!
    Need to know the movement and strategy of Hizballh in Lebanon.
    Regards,
    George

    http://counterterrorismblog.org/2006...in_lebanon.php

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    Default Russian AT Weapons vs Israeli Tanks in Lebanon

    Russian Anti-Armour Weapons and Israeli Tanks in Lebanon

    Mikhail Barabanov

    According to various Israeli and Western sources, during the course of battle in Lebanon, between 46 and 50 Merkava main battle tanks (of the 400 deployed) and 14 APCs were hit by anti-tank weapons, including 22 incidents where tank armour and 5 cases where APC armour was penetrated. Another six tanks and at least one APC were blown up by mines and IDEs.

    Of those tanks hit by anti-tank weapons, 18 were the newest Merkava Mk 4 version (from the 401st armoured brigade), and six of these had their armour penetrated. Twenty-three tank and five APC crew members were killed. A large number of anti-tank guide-missiles and RPG grenades hit the tanks, but in most cases these did little damage. It was reported that one of the Merkava Mk 4 tanks survived 23 hits from anti-tank guided—missiles before it was finally disabled and its armour penetrated. All penetrations of Merkava armour, according to Israeli statements, were achieved by the Konkurs, Metis-M and Kornet-E anti-tank guided—missiles, and the RPG-29 rocket-propelled grenades. If one considers that 22 of 50 tanks had their armour penetrated, that gives a penetration rate of 44% (and only 33% for the Merkava Mk 4). According to Israeli Army statistics, the penetration rate for tanks during the 1982 Lebanon War was 47%, and 60% during the 1973 War. The crew casualties rate was also much higher in 2006 at 0.5 crew member for each damaged tank, while the rate per disabled tank in 1973 War is one full crew member.

    The number of irrecoverable tank losses among those damaged, according to recent Israeli publications, was five altogether, of which two (a Merkava Mk 2 and Mk 4) were destroyed by IDEs and three tanks were completely burned out after hits by guided anti-tank guided—missiles. This attests to the high degree of protection afforded by the most modern Merkava Mk 4 tanks, which could be damaged only by the most modern anti-tank weapons with powerful tandem HEAT warheads hitting, it would seem, weakened armoured zones.
    http://mdb.cast.ru/mdb/2-2007/item2/item1/

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    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    Actually, all but "the most modern" AT weapons predate the Merkava, so it should not come as a surprise that the old tools are blunt.

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    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Default Approximate IDF Casualties analysis

    Here is a breakdown of actual IDF casualties from the Lebanon, that I have cobbled together from Israeli sources.

    Of the 23 members of the armoured corps killed in action, 15 were killed by ATGMs, and 7 by mines.

    The cause of death for the other 1 is not recorded specifically. Most probably gunfire from commanding "heads out".

    Over 50% of the armour casualties are attributable to just 3 incidents.
    The ATGM deaths are all accounted for by just 6 hits.

    For APCs 14 were hit by ATGM killing 7 embarked troops in 2 incidents. 3 APCs hit mines killing 5 infantrymen in two incidents (4 and 1). 90% of these casualties all occurred in one night.

    In comparison, 14 infantrymen were killed by ATGMs fired at buildings.

    The vast majority of casualties were still incurred by the infantry, in gun battles.
    Last edited by William F. Owen; 08-24-2008 at 08:26 AM. Reason: spread sheet fever!
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

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    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Default Combined analysis

    So extrapolating on from this, and using the most reliable sets of open source figures.

    Let us assume Hezbollah fired only 100 ATGM and RPG. They hit 50 tanks, of which 22 hits perforated the armour. Of those 22 hits, only 6-7 caused deaths. That's a 6-7 percent "success" rate per 100 rounds fired. Only 3 MBTs were total losses to ATGM fire. The reality is more likely a >2% success rate.

    APCs got perforated 11 times, causing 7 casualties across 2 hits.

    Essentially there are only 8-9 recorded incidents where Hezbollah AT fire was able to cause deaths inside armoured vehicles, and 4 times where AT fire killed troops in buildings.
    Last edited by William F. Owen; 08-24-2008 at 09:39 AM.
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
    - If we can double the ratio of kills per contact, we will soon put an end to the shooting in Malaya.
    Sir Gerald Templer, foreword to the "Conduct of Anti-Terrorist Operations in Malaya," 1958 Edition

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    Default Hizbullah Spying Through 'Facebook'

    Hizbullah Spying Through 'Facebook'
    5 Elul 5768, 05 September 08 10:16

    by Gil Ronen

    (IsraelNN.com) According to the intelligence community in Israel, Hizbullah terrorists are becoming increasingly computer savvy, using Facebook to learn more about IDF soldiers, potential targets for kidnappings.

    Yeshiva World News reported that IDF intelligence officials are concerned that soldiers may unwittingly give the enemy information through social networking sites or even arrange to meet an internet companion who is in fact a terrorist.
    Last edited by Tom Odom; 12-08-2008 at 08:15 PM. Reason: edited to avoid copyright issues

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    Old news - even older than the more-than-three-month old article linked. I first saw it begin to recycle through the e-mail lists a couple of days ago. If anyone is surprised that any threat organization uses open social-networking sites to gather information on their enemies, then shame on them. The only thing that is really newsworthy is the number of people who honestly find this to be an eye-opener and are shocked by the revelation.

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    Council Member Kevin23's Avatar
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    Default Ties to "Lebanese Bernie Madoff" hits hezbollah

    A financial scandal has hit the leadership of Hezbollah after they are indirectly linked to a prominent Lebanese businessman who is accused of swindling money out of Shia throughout the country.

    Which comes on the heels of series of setbacks for the Shia militant group.

    http://www.time.com/time/world/artic...924186,00.html

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    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Stockpiling in Bangkok

    A really odd report from Bangkok via LWOT Blog, citing news wire services:
    Thai police on January 12 arrested a suspected member of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Atris Hussein, and later charged him with illegal weapons possession after receiving a tip from Israeli intelligence sources that Hezbollah operatives were plotting to attack various tourist attractions in the Thai capital of Bangkok (NYT, CNN, Reuters, AP, AFP). After his arrest Hussein led police on January 16 to a warehouse he had been renting for a year, where he had stockpiled a large amount of ammonium nitrate and urea, both of which can be used to make explosives, though a police spokesman later said the alleged plot involved the chemicals being shipped out of Thailand for use in another country (BBC).
    Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...chemical_stash
    davidbfpo

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    Default Bangkok: clarity & smoke

    Stratfor's report is interesting, not only for the details, such as this "taster":
    The sheer amount of fertilizer (nearly 5 tons) is a wholesale amount. The largest vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) in recent history have contained about a ton of fertilizer.
    Naturally there is speculation too on what was going on:http://stratfor.com/weekly/hezbollah-threat-thailand
    davidbfpo

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    This part:

    Hezbollah operatives were plotting to attack various tourist attractions in the Thai capital of Bangkok
    ...makes no sense at all. It's just not a Hizbullah modus operandi.
    They mostly come at night. Mostly.


  17. #17
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Covert conflict speads

    This Israeli think tank report 'Iranian and Hezbollah Terrorist Attacks against Israeli Targets Abroad: The Situation on the Ground and Background Information'
    would really fit a thread on the covert conflict between interested parties around the world, but there isn't one. So here it will rest.

    Link:http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/mal.../iran_e157.htm

    It is interesting that the Bangkok attack did not feature large bombs, but "sticky" bombs - a very basic effective method.
    davidbfpo

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    Default Will Hezbollah Attack Israel? Only if...

    Will Hezbollah Attack Israel? Only if...

    Entry Excerpt:



    --------
    Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
    This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.

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    Council Member bourbon's Avatar
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    Default Paintballing with Hezbollah

    Paintballing with Hezbollah, By Mitchell Prothero. Vice, vol.19 no3.
    Yes, I remind myself, this is really happening: Four Western journalists (two of whom alternated in and out of our rounds of four-on-four), plus one former Army Ranger-turned-counterinsurgency expert, are playing paintball with members of the Shiite militant group frequently described by US national security experts as the “A-Team of terrorism.” It took nearly a full year to pull together this game, and all along I’d been convinced that things would fall apart at the last minute. Fraternizing with Westerners is not the sort of thing Hezbollah top brass allows, so to arrange the match I’d relied on a man we’ll call Ali, one of my lower-level contacts within the group.
    Four Beirut based ex-pat journalists and Abu Muqawama challenge five members of Hezbollah to a night of paintball in Beirut. Surreal.
    “[S]omething in his tone now reminded her of his explanations of asymmetric warfare, a topic in which he had a keen and abiding interest. She remembered him telling her how terrorism was almost exclusively about branding, but only slightly less so about the psychology of lotteries…” - Zero History, William Gibson

  20. #20
    Council Member The Cuyahoga Kid's Avatar
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    Saw this last night, definitely a worthwhile read.

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