Russia and the US

[Brian Hanley]

But the player here that is not being focused on is the Kremlin. Compare their current support of Iran and Ahmedinejad's mouth to what they did with Milosevic in Serbia. While the Kosovo business didn't happen under Putin's watch, key players such as Primakov, who engineered that one, are part of Putin's cadre. The Kosovo war gave Putin the election in my view, after we got suckered in a rope-a-dope fight. (Kosovo nearly led to a successful coup against Yeltsin before the election, but that's another matter.)

Consider also that when Putin took power the Russian Federation's national budget was roughly equal to that of New York City. The nation was lurching toward breakup with provincial governors assuming more and more power. Now Putin is supervising a Russia that is not exactly wealthy but well on the road to health and the breakup is not even a distant echo.

How did that happen? It happened because of oil price rises. What pushed that? The Iraq war.

What would be the outcome for Russia if we attacked Iran? Major increase in the price of oil. And likely, in the long term, a resurgent Russia taking control as they are equipped to do by virtue of ruthlessness, since I'll bet the Kremlin is banking on the USA withdrawing within 10 years if we did. A weakened Iran on their border? What could be better?

What would be the outcome for Russia if we didn't attack Iran? Increase in Russian influence in the Middle East.

What would be the outcome for Russia if Iran fires nuclear missiles at Israel (or even better fires them at Riyadh and UAE)? Huge increase in the price of oil. And it would give Russia an excuse to roll into Iran and take it over "for the sake of world peace."

Heads Putin wins. Tails we lose.

My view of the Kremlin's goals (in a region that is as close to it as Mexico and Guatemala are to us) is that the neo-FSB patriots aim to take over 60% to 70% of the world's oil supplies by 2015. Barring that, they aim to destroy it or stir the pot to ensure regular price increases in order to raise the wounded bear back up on its feet.

[Ken White]

But the player here that is not being focused on is the Kremlin...
. . .

My view of the Kremlin's goals (in a region that is as close to it as Mexico and Guatemala are to us) is that the neo-FSB patriots aim to take over 60% to 70% of the world's oil supplies by 2015. Barring that, they aim to destroy it or stir the pot to ensure regular price increases in order to raise the wounded bear back up on its feet.

I'd suggest only two caveats. Putin visited Iran and he talked a lot -- but he didn't really say anything. They got no promises from him...

Also note that your stated presumed goal of oil supply control is probably true but we, China and India may have other ideas.

As they say, "the other guy gets a vote."