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Thread: Russia and the US

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    Council Member Brian Hanley's Avatar
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    Default Russia and the US

    But the player here that is not being focused on is the Kremlin. Compare their current support of Iran and Ahmedinejad's mouth to what they did with Milosevic in Serbia. While the Kosovo business didn't happen under Putin's watch, key players such as Primakov, who engineered that one, are part of Putin's cadre. The Kosovo war gave Putin the election in my view, after we got suckered in a rope-a-dope fight. (Kosovo nearly led to a successful coup against Yeltsin before the election, but that's another matter.)

    Consider also that when Putin took power the Russian Federation's national budget was roughly equal to that of New York City. The nation was lurching toward breakup with provincial governors assuming more and more power. Now Putin is supervising a Russia that is not exactly wealthy but well on the road to health and the breakup is not even a distant echo.

    How did that happen? It happened because of oil price rises. What pushed that? The Iraq war.

    What would be the outcome for Russia if we attacked Iran? Major increase in the price of oil. And likely, in the long term, a resurgent Russia taking control as they are equipped to do by virtue of ruthlessness, since I'll bet the Kremlin is banking on the USA withdrawing within 10 years if we did. A weakened Iran on their border? What could be better?

    What would be the outcome for Russia if we didn't attack Iran? Increase in Russian influence in the Middle East.

    What would be the outcome for Russia if Iran fires nuclear missiles at Israel (or even better fires them at Riyadh and UAE)? Huge increase in the price of oil. And it would give Russia an excuse to roll into Iran and take it over "for the sake of world peace."

    Heads Putin wins. Tails we lose.

    My view of the Kremlin's goals (in a region that is as close to it as Mexico and Guatemala are to us) is that the neo-FSB patriots aim to take over 60% to 70% of the world's oil supplies by 2015. Barring that, they aim to destroy it or stir the pot to ensure regular price increases in order to raise the wounded bear back up on its feet.

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    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default Good post and quite valid

    Quote Originally Posted by Brian Hanley View Post
    But the player here that is not being focused on is the Kremlin...
    . . .

    My view of the Kremlin's goals (in a region that is as close to it as Mexico and Guatemala are to us) is that the neo-FSB patriots aim to take over 60% to 70% of the world's oil supplies by 2015. Barring that, they aim to destroy it or stir the pot to ensure regular price increases in order to raise the wounded bear back up on its feet.
    I'd suggest only two caveats. Putin visited Iran and he talked a lot -- but he didn't really say anything. They got no promises from him...

    Also note that your stated presumed goal of oil supply control is probably true but we, China and India may have other ideas.

    As they say, "the other guy gets a vote."

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    Council Member Brian Hanley's Avatar
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    Default Russia and the US

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    I'd suggest only two caveats. Putin visited Iran and he talked a lot -- but he didn't really say anything. They got no promises from him...

    Also note that your stated presumed goal of oil supply control is probably true but we, China and India may have other ideas.
    No promises in public. Putin's public statements should always be understood in light of his past as spymaster. What you see ain't what you get with him.

    Note that when Primakov visited Milosovic just before Milo grew a backbone he told the Western press that it was sad but he couldn't talk sense into Milosevic. Then Primakov got off the plane in Moscow and announced in Russian that he was reconstructing the Eastern Bloc alliance and Serbia was its first member. (Predictably missed by every news outlet.) Then Russia ran our blockade with fuel for the duration and sent a spy ship to provide signal intelligence. By the end of that conflict by some estimates 10% of all infantry were Russian born "volunteers". Believe me, Russia's old guard would have made much hay from dead Russian volunteers in the Russian homeland. They made the bombs falling on Serbia into a regime change in the motherland.

    I'll note that Ahmedinejad isn't the sharpest tool in the shed. What the powers behind the throne in Iran are probably paying attention to is the practical support Russia is giving. That's what I attend to also. That and the outcomes of the game. As we have seen, it is easy to screw things up, and in the last resort, to raise the price of oil that is all it takes. The Kremlin is nothing if not ruthless. One sees that very clearly sitting in a small nation nearby to Russia when they don't give a damn if the iron claws get seen.

    The Kremlin is playing, "Heads we win, tails you lose" right now. Our side isn't being clever at all about big picture strategy. That the USA is weakening itself economically with warfare that simultaneously raises the price of oil is a bonus for the Kremlin (which has few economic ties to us unlike China). That economic malaise in the USA will cause a case of economic bird flu in China is another bonus. Those boys in Moscow are excellent zero-sum game thinkers. They ain't dumb, they just look at the world through a different lens than we do. A very different lens. And they are motivated as all hell these days. They have watched their country collapse into a state so far below that of the USA in the great depression it's hard for Americans to imagine.

    For what it's worth, I got one report a few years back from a fairly reliable source (i.e. every other checkable report from that source had been correct) that Igor Giorgadze had been meeting with bin Laden prior to 9-11. But that's just a report and even if true proves nothing. It would make sense for their intelligence service to keep tabs on ol' Osama. They had fewer illusions about what he was about than we did prior to 9-11. But on the other hand, Giorgadze is a very high level agent whose previous assignment was to take over a nation...

    Frankly, I think our side has gotten fat, dumb, happy and full of hubris. I advise serious caution. We blew a big opportunity in th 90's to make a great friend. Let's hope we can weather the rise of Russia without becoming too much of enemies again. Rise they will, with a seriousness of purpose that hasn't been seen in our nation for a couple hundred years.

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    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Cool I try to do that. Still alive so I must be doing fairly well at it.

    I'm aware of the facts in your first paragraph but I suggest what he did say gives a clue to what he did not say. We'll see.

    Agree that we are not being clever on world strategy; I think we got tunnel vision and are just now starting to realize that. Probably some in high places in DC still haven't realized it.

    The war isn't weakening us all that much though it certainly isn't strengthening us. Only concern to me is that someone will over estimate the weakening effect...

    I totally agree with your last paragraph and spent a lot of the early 90s fulminating about the errors of Bush 41 and Clinton in trying to be clever and in the process, alienating Russia. Dumbb -- With two 'b's...

    We live in interesting times...

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    Council Member MattC86's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    I totally agree with your last paragraph and spent a lot of the early 90s fulminating about the errors of Bush 41 and Clinton in trying to be clever and in the process, alienating Russia. Dumbb -- With two 'b's...

    We live in interesting times...

    In regards to Russia, I think the errors are at least partly understandable given that our Big Enemy of fifty years had suddenly disintegrated. Clinton's foreign relations people were groping for a new US strategic concept for their entire eight years in office.

    Additionally, I'm not sure exactly how befriending an authoritarian, corrupt oligarchy is in our interests - or are you saying better relations with Russia in the early-to-mid-90s would have prevented Russia's slipping to it's position today?

    Matt
    "Give a good leader very little and he will succeed. Give a mediocrity a great deal and he will fail." - General George C. Marshall

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    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default I think your first paragraph answers itself.

    Quote Originally Posted by MattC86 View Post
    In regards to Russia, I think the errors are at least partly understandable given that our Big Enemy of fifty years had suddenly disintegrated. Clinton's foreign relations people were groping for a new US strategic concept for their entire eight years in office.

    Additionally, I'm not sure exactly how befriending an authoritarian, corrupt oligarchy is in our interests - or are you saying better relations with Russia in the early-to-mid-90s would have prevented Russia's slipping to it's position today?

    Matt
    I agree they were groping -- so was Bush 41 -- and it was a whole new world. Further, the lack of direction was fed by a lack of intelligence (apparently). Those understandable things were compounded by a lack of vision and the old American ego; "Nana-nana nana -- we won!"

    It would have been in our interest to help because that may have precluded the oligarchy turning into government by KGB. They needed money, we waste more money in a week than it would have taken to buy some of their stuff (all sorts, including oil), like AN 74s for which we could find a good use. Stuff for other people.

    That may or may not have changed things for the future but the condescension and arrogance we showed wasn't helpful. We do that way too often and it never helps, usually does a lot of harm.

    We're still good at that; saw last week where in the messages we sent to Poland and The Czech Republic re: antimissile stuff, we provided responses that they only need to sign and return-- which caused both nations to go into the diplomatic stall mode. Rightly so. That isn't just arrogant, it's stupid.

    You can kick a dog just so many times and sooner or later it's going to turn around and bite you -- and Nations aren't as tolerant as dogs...

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    Council Member Brian Hanley's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    ... Further, the lack of direction was fed by a lack of intelligence (apparently). Those understandable things were compounded by a lack of vision and the old American ego; "Nana-nana nana -- we won!"

    It would have been in our interest to help because that may have precluded the oligarchy turning into government by KGB.
    Yes, with caveats. We should have concentrated on trade and opening treaty relations, doing things like giving them mutual passport recognition a la Europe to build bridges. There is an excellent book about the time. "Collision and Collusion: The Strange Case of Western Aid to Eastern Europe" by Wedel.

    I'd say it was compounded by academia churning out Russian Studies doctorates who got ahead by quoting each other. Very few spent more than a few days or weeks in the USSR (highly supervised) if that. The fate of Russia was sealed by Clinton's decision to let academia loose to test their theories, as in "Shock Treatment" and giving the field to the 5-Star aid contractors.

    In fact, the amount of aid loans and the way they were given were worse than nothing at all. Imagine what would happen in the USA if a nation came in and handed out unsecured loans starting at $1 billion and up to $1 trillion based on the ability of the petitioners to deliver buzz-words in Arabic and kept that up for 4 years, then pulled the plug?

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    Council Member Brian Hanley's Avatar
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    Default Hey!

    Hey there. Don't go all soft on the new guy so soon. I'll get lazy.

    Personally, I think some of the best lobbying we could all do right now is to grant Russia most favored nation status and grant Russian Federation Citizens automatic right to enter the USA without a visa and work. Set up a special mutual passport recognition, but make it unilateral if Putin doesn't like it.

    There'll be some criminals, but most of them get over here anyway, they just bribe people at embassies. Costs about $50K to wash a record over there and convince key people to put the stamps on. (I've heard reports of as low as $10-$15K, but if they're true, somebody has an employee over a barrel.)

    I think it would force Putin to accept the treaty and it would be very popular in Russia, and help us develop business ties more than anything else ever could. That is the only lever I can see that will pry the Kremlin away from its present course.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Brian Hanley View Post
    Frankly, I think our side has gotten fat, dumb, happy and full of hubris. I advise serious caution. We blew a big opportunity in th 90's to make a great friend. Let's hope we can weather the rise of Russia without becoming too much of enemies again. Rise they will, with a seriousness of purpose that hasn't been seen in our nation for a couple hundred years.
    Aside from that nagging little demographic problem...

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    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Question Pandora's Box

    Hey Brian !

    Quote Originally Posted by Brian Hanley View Post
    Personally, I think some of the best lobbying we could all do right now is to grant Russia most favored nation status and grant Russian Federation Citizens automatic right to enter the USA without a visa and work. Set up a special mutual passport recognition, but make it unilateral if Putin doesn't like it.
    I might be inclined to most favored nation status, but visa-free entry would literally equate to opening Pandora's Box on this end of the world. The long-awaited Schengen Visa policy is already a quagmire promising little benefit in exchange for Russians to freely tramp across Europe.

    Quote Originally Posted by Brian Hanley View Post
    There'll be some criminals, but most of them get over here anyway, they just bribe people at embassies. Costs about $50K to wash a record over there and convince key people to put the stamps on. (I've heard reports of as low as $10-$15K, but if they're true, somebody has an employee over a barrel.)
    Jeez, I hope that's not going on at US Embassies. Washing one's record of mafia-relation is one thing (eliminates the host nation MFA from declining the visa request), but 'selling' a US visa for 15K seems highly unlikely.

    There's an interesting Russian opinion here regarding Putin's visit to Tehran.

    Solution of the Iranian nuclear issue is in Tehran and Washington, not in Moscow

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    Council Member Brian Hanley's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Granite_State View Post
    Aside from that nagging little demographic problem...
    Having spoken to Pakistanis in Moscow talking about Russia as the land of wide open opportunity I'd not worry my head about that. We have our own demographic problem, and we have "solved" it the same way. Illegal immigrants. In Russia, most are happy. Russian cops are happy to have more bribe money. Russian workers are happy to have people they can feel better than for a change, maybe even be able to afford a maid or a gardner. Illegals are happy to be out of "fookin' Pakistan." Just like here with south of the border...

    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    I might be inclined to most favored nation status, but visa-free entry would literally equate to opening Pandora's Box on this end of the world. The long-awaited Schengen Visa policy is already a quagmire promising little benefit in exchange for Russians to freely tramp across Europe.
    ...
    What Pandora's box? So the FSB could do a little S&T spying slightly more easily. Big deal. so we have more pretty Russian girls who like to cook for their husbands? So sad. So we have legions of well educated white folks wanting to attain the American dream and work their asses off. Now that's a problem. You got me.

    The Europeans are doing that for three benefits. A. Low cost labor and immigrant blood that doesn't come from the Muslim world. (They're seriously worried - no kidding.) B. Money from Russians who come to Europe to deposit money in banks that won't go belly up next week. Then they go home. This helps European banks with deposits, and it helps stabilize Russia by allowing the middle class to be protected from Kremlin currency manipulation. C. To develop interlocking business ties with Russia so that Russia will be less difficult in the coming years of ascendancy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    Jeez, I hope that's not going on at US Embassies. Washing one's record of mafia-relation is one thing (eliminates the host nation MFA from declining the visa request), but 'selling' a US visa for 15K seems highly unlikely.
    There, there. Seriously, it happens all the time. Ever wonder how those Visas got granted that weren't even filled out properly for the 9-11 boyz? Yes, it does. As I said, usually the price is around $50K, but it goes lower. At least the US embassy doesn't have sales reps hawking space in the diplomatic pouch. Many countries do. I was offered a couple bucks a kilo to transport whatever I wanted to the USA in Pakistan's diplomatic pouch. The Germans pouch has a corner on art and antiques, that sort of thing.

    Think about the attitude of the foriegn service officers being assigned to Iraq. They gots yer basic bad attitude, they gots their college compadres making more than they are, it's a setup.

    It's too bad I wasn't allowed to communicate with embassy audit. But yes, Virginia, there IS a santa claus in the foriegn service!

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    Council Member nichols's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brian Hanley View Post
    There, there. Seriously, it happens all the time.
    Brian,

    Are the FSOs working in conjunction with the FSNs? I just ran this past my wife, there are a lot of checks and balances to prevent this from happening.

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    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Gotta agree with an old Africa hand there.

    I've only served in 7 Embassies during 23 years of active duty, so pardon my lack of experience herein

    Just exactly how does one sell a US Visa ?

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    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default Ver-ree stealthily... Or one goes to the bazaris

    and gets a rubber stamp made, buys some odd paper and sets up shop...

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    Council Member nichols's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brian Hanley View Post
    It's too bad I wasn't allowed to communicate with embassy audit. But yes, Virginia, there IS a santa claus in the foriegn service!
    Brian,

    Skip embassy audit, you need to report this to DS at the very least. Your background in anti terrorism dictates this gapping hole in our security needs to be plugged ASAP.

    If you need some POCs, send me a PM. One of my buddies works at State, I'll pass this thread on to him if you want.

    S/F

    Paul

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    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Default Thanks for that, Ken !

    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    and gets a rubber stamp made, buys some odd paper and sets up shop...
    Actually, the days of the rubber stamp are older than Christ when he was just a Corporal (in the Army, Nichols )

    The application approval process is at best arduous and no one individual can rubber stamp you to the USA. The 'foils' that are printed are a royal pain in the Alpha to handle, and are so sensitive they often tear when applying them.

    I've done both full tours and various TDYs in places like Tbilisi where Brian was, but life in the fish bowl is often more secure, with or without an MSG, than the common person thinks.

    I fully concur with Nichols. This situation regardless of how long ago and where it took place, should be immediately reported.

  17. #17
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Brian,

    Quote Originally Posted by Brian Hanley View Post

    What Pandora's box? So the FSB could do a little S&T spying slightly more easily. Big deal. so we have more pretty Russian girls who like to cook for their husbands? So sad. So we have legions of well educated white folks wanting to attain the American dream and work their asses off. Now that's a problem. You got me.
    I'm not at all concerned about additional FSB wannabes getting visas. They are not the likely ones to set up OC and prostitution rings in CONUS, they're too busy killing their former FSB agents and (ahem) spying. Suffices to say, that things have changed exponentially since your time in Georgia. I'm only 3 hours from St. Pete, and have observed first hand who and what makes the border crossings (legally or otherwise). As for all those pretty girls running to the States, well that's just naive to conclude. Better to observe the current Nashi forums all over Europe nearly identical to Kim's concept, only these Nashi are volunteering and procreating for Putin. We're a long, long way from those patriotic days of merely sleeping/spying for the Motherland.

    Quote Originally Posted by Brian Hanley View Post
    The Europeans are doing that for three benefits. A. Low cost labor and immigrant blood that doesn't come from the Muslim world. (They're seriously worried - no kidding.) B. Money from Russians who come to Europe to deposit money in banks that won't go belly up next week. Then they go home. This helps European banks with deposits, and it helps stabilize Russia by allowing the middle class to be protected from Kremlin currency manipulation. C. To develop interlocking business ties with Russia so that Russia will be less difficult in the coming years of ascendancy.
    A. Been to Germany lately ? Those are not cheap Russian laborers.
    B. You got me there. Even the nouveaux riche here don't do banks. Strickly cash transactions, no trails that lead home.
    C. I feel you adequately answered this one earlier. There's no such animal as interlocking business relationships or ties with Russia. They break every deal and business arrangement at will.

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    Council Member nichols's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    Actually, the days of the rubber stamp are older than Christ when he was just a Corporal (in the Army, Nichols )
    Stan, my friend, buddy, fellow SNCO; I can see where you are confused, some people think BC means Before Christ's birth. It's a good thing I'm here to teach you. BC stands for Before Corps


    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    The application approval process is at best arduous and no one individual can rubber stamp you to the USA. The 'foils' that are printed are a royal pain in the Alpha to handle, and are so sensitive they often tear when applying them.)
    You should have seen the interview that I had to take with the RSO when I reported that I was dating a girl from Visa Services

    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    with or without an MSG, than the common person thinks.
    Stan, if you wuld be so kind as to let me know your future posts, I'll let Battalion now so that they will only send MSGs (now they are MCESC) that smoke in order to borrow cigarettes from you.......

  19. #19
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Hey Paul !

    Quote Originally Posted by nichols View Post
    Stan, my friend, buddy, fellow SNCO; I can see where you are confused, some people think BC means Before Christ's birth. It's a good thing I'm here to teach you. BC stands for Before Corps
    Ya know, you almost got me there, bud. A quick check for the acronym Bravo Charlie revealed some additional interesting meanings, but it seems Acronym Finder lacks the USMC variant

    Birth Control
    Boot Camp
    Bill Clinton
    Basket Case
    Big Cheese
    Bacon Cheeseburger
    Baghdad College
    Before Children
    Before Computers
    Bull Crap and Biocomposites Centre (that's a latrine)
    bottom current, US DoD (hmmm, an E-1 ?)

    Quote Originally Posted by nichols View Post
    You should have seen the interview that I had to take with the RSO when I reported that I was dating a girl from Visa Services
    You should have seen my RSOs and especially Tom's face when I told them I had more than once instance of 'bonds of affection' with a Romanian woman during a civil war

    Quote Originally Posted by nichols View Post
    Stan, if you wuld be so kind as to let me know your future posts, I'll let Battalion now so that they will only send MSGs (now they are MCESC) that smoke in order to borrow cigarettes from you.......
    You just couldn't leave at least one acronym alone so the rest of us could keep up

  20. #20
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default This geriatric abuse has gotta stop!

    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    Actually, the days of the rubber stamp are older than Christ when he was just a Corporal (in the Army, Nichols )
    Just because I'm the only one here whose clothing record documents the issue of a "Fig Leaf, Winter Service, Green"...

    The application approval process is at best arduous and no one individual can rubber stamp you to the USA. The 'foils' that are printed are a royal pain in the Alpha to handle, and are so sensitive they often tear when applying them.
    Heh. Even as long ago as when I was in Tehran the common complaint from the Iraniha who applied was that they could get a UK Visa in three days with two signatures and a US Visa took weeks and four signatures. Bureaucracy r us.

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