Economic Warfare

[Fabius Maximus]

China is following the trajectory of by W Germany, Japan and the SE Asian Tigers. Overlaying the growth charts shows that China is at an early stage in the process. It's easy to forget how long China's predecessors sustained their rapid growth rates. And China is much larger.

Ian Flemming wrote Dr No in 1955. In the opening Bond was musing about a fellow 00 agent sent to Singapore, feeling happy it was not him. In 1955 James Bond was afraid to visit Singapore. Look at it now.

China is still in the export-driven growth stage. Despite its rapid export growth, its share of global exports is slightly less than Japan (both roughly 9%). Of course, China is potentially a much larger economy than Japan. The next stage is rapid growth driven by domestic demand; given China's incredible high savings rate, that phase could also be long and powerful.

As for dependence on the US, only 20% of Chine's merchandise exports go to US. Our share of their total exports is even lower (they export other things, like coal). To whom are their exports growing fastest? The EU.

China will participate in any global downturn, but its fate is not linked to the US. But is the reverse true? They hold almost $2 trillion in US IOU's (including Hong Kong and Macao), and we borrow tens of billions more every month.

America seems to have forgotten that creditors make the rules, not debtors. Creditors are masters of their fate, not debtors.

China's US dollar holdings are assets in the same sense as bullets, valuable only in what they can do. They can use them to exert pressure on the US or to buy our tangible assets. And they will use them at some point.

The fall of the US dollar, as your read this breaking through long-term lows, is potentially a historical event -- the end of the post-WWII global financial order. None can say how it will play out, or what lies on the other side.

[Shek]

The fall of the US dollar, as your read this breaking through long-term lows, is potentially a historical event -- the end of the post-WWII global financial order. None can say how it will play out, or what lies on the other side.

A little bit of hyperbole. The post-WWII global financial order based on Bretton Woods was ended back in 1972. The question is whether the implicit "Bretton Woods II" that emerged over the past decade will remain in effect or disintegrate. The fall of the US dollar is a market reaction to the global imbalances that have been created by the lack of saving in the US, and it is not a bad thing. It is better to see the correction take place in the form of bits and pieces as opposed to a sudden change.