Iraqi Ethnic Tensions Stoke Insurgency in Mosul

[Jedburgh]

ISN Security Watch, 7 Feb 08: Questioning the Mosul Offensive

With Iraqi and US forces poised for a major offensive in the northern city of Mosul, questions need to be asked concerning the wider strategic import of recent and upcoming security and political developments on the future stability of the country.

Residents of Mosul are reportedly stocking up on supplies as US and government reinforcements arrive ahead of what Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki describes as a "decisive battle against al-Qaida."

The military buildup in Mosul is part of a large-scale offensive involving 24,000 US soldiers and 130,000 Iraqi troops, designed to root out purported al-Qaida-linked militants in several provinces.

Militants in Mosul have reportedly conducted around 30 attacks a day in recent months as al-Qaida and other anti-occupation Sunni movements reportedly regrouped in the city and surrounds following reverses in al-Anbar province and Baghdad.....

[Rob Thornton]

24,000 US soldiers and 130,000 Iraqi troops

- Open source media has reported the differences between Mosul and Baghdad - and the ways that it may effect operations. If the numbers hold true - even accounting for the support troops - this will 10 times what Mosul has seen in the last year or so.That is probably enough troops not only to get after the tactical problems within Mosul, but to conduct a greater operation in the surrounding areas - I think we'll be able to clear, build & hold - plus Interdict - the intent would seem to be not to allow the enemy to relocate. Mosul has allot of character as a city - and I think allot of potential too. God Speed to U.S. and ISF involved.

Best, Rob

[Jedburgh]

Terrorism Monitor, 23 Oct 09: Challenges to U.S. Proposal to Pacify Northern Iraq May Lead to Extended American Military Presence

As the U.S. military prepares for rapid disengagement from Iraq following parliamentary elections to be held early next year, growing Arab-Kurdish tensions in northern Iraq over the ownership of “disputed territories” are emerging as the main threat to Iraqi stability. In response to rising violence and high-profile insurgent attacks in Ninawa province, U.S. General Raymond Odierno announced an initiative to facilitate Arab-Kurdish cooperation. But as elections approach, his proposal is facing political opposition and practical challenges that complicate U.S. plans to reduce ethnic tensions ahead of the scheduled withdrawal of all U.S. combat forces in August 2010.

At the fault-line of the Arab-Kurdish conflict in northern Iraq is Mosul – Iraq’s second largest city and the capital of Ninawa province. Mosul is often characterized as an ethnic tinderbox, with its population consisting of 70% Sunni Arabs and 25% Kurds; the remaining residents include Arab Shi’a, Turcomans, Yezidis, and Christians. Home to a predominately Sunni population and well known as a former Ba’athist stronghold near the Syrian border, Mosul is an ideal locale for active insurgent support and recruitment. According to one report, as many as 300,000 inhabitants of the city offered to contribute to Ba’athist military, security, and intelligence efforts before Operation Iraqi Freedom.....

ICG, 28 Sep 09: Iraq's New Battlefront: The Struggle Over Ninewa

.....Conflict chiefly has occurred where Arabs and Kurds vie for administrative control and where Iraq’s army and Kurdish peshmergas face off across an increasingly tense divide. On several occasions, these forces have come perilously close to head-on collision. Further contributing to the governorate’s growing instability and tinderbox quality is the vast array of official and unofficial armed groups: the national army and police; the Kurdistan regional government’s (KRG) security forces (peshmerga) and security police (asaesh); what remains of Sunni Arab insurgent groups; and tribal militias.

Caught between Arabs and Kurds are ethnic and religious minorities in whom the central government has evinced little interest. While Ninewa is majority Arab with a strong Kurdish minority, it also counts a number of smaller groups – Christians, Yazidis, Turkomans and Shabaks – that may comprise a mere 10 per cent of the population but are concentrated in disputed borderlands between Kurdistan and Arab Iraq. They have suffered a disproportionate share of the hardship caused by war, occupation and intercommunal violence and fight today for survival. At times co-opted, at others threatened by one of the camps, they have become vulnerable pawns in a contest that often sees them as little more than fodder. In August and September 2009, four bombings took over 100 lives and left many hundreds more wounded. For minorities, these have been among the deadliest of months....