Jumping Ship

[goesh]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21836566/

"Army desertion up 80 percent since Iraq war
Nine in 1,000 went AWOL in fiscal 2007; seven in 1,000 a year earlier

updated 45 minutes ago
WASHINGTON - Soldiers strained by six years at war are deserting their posts at the highest rate since 1980, with the number of Army deserters this year showing an 80 percent increase since the United States invaded Iraq in 2003.

While the totals are still far lower than they were during the Vietnam war, when the draft was in effect, they show a steady increase over the past four years and a 42 percent jump since last year."

The lead on this story strongly implies the desertion rate is primarily an anti-war sentiment unfolding. I'm sure this factors in no doubt but there are bound to be other reasons as well.

[J Wolfsberger]

The story could equally well, and for more accurately have been that the rate climbed from .007 to .009. No where near as much impact.

[goesh]

it says a steady increase from 7 to 9 out of every 1,000 - we'll soon be overrun by jihadis here on mainstreet if our boys won't stand their ground - I better buy a burkha for my wife this afternoon

[Danny]

I agree with Wolfsberger. I would comment that numerically, and given the lack of data with which to trend, this is not statistically significant. No mathematician would have written a story like this based on the data they use. Even if true and a pointer to a larger trend that will sustain itself in the future, a whole host of contributors could be culpable.

[goesh]

I'd still like a breakdown - how many are truly anti-war, how many are going off the deep end due to divorce/broken relationships, plain old criminal actions, etc It is instilled bias, plain and simple IMO

[wm]

Did anyone else note the article's conflation of desertion with being AWOL. Last time I checked the UCMJ and Manual for Courts Martial, these two offenses are quite different especially as to the severity of their maximum punishments.
Based on my experience leading troops in the Army of the 70s and 80s, an AWOL rate of 0.7% or 0.9% per year quite low.

IMO, an even better indicator of troops' issues with the war might be a count of those charged for missing movement as part of an OCONUS deployment.

Of course I'd like to see a lot of other demographic information--time in service, marital status, enlistment category, MOS, component (AC/RC), among others. Right now, all I get from this report is another attempt at a "sensational" sound bite by a media that doesn't really understand what it is reporting.

[Danny]

WM,

That's a good point. Or they may have even conflated UA with desertion. This study is pretty close to pointless without a whole lot of clarification and stipulations.

[Stan]

Hey Wayne !

Did anyone else note the article's conflation of desertion with being AWOL.
Of course I'd like to see a lot of other demographic information--time in service, marital status, enlistment category, MOS, component (AC/RC), among others. Right now, all I get from this report is another attempt at a "sensational" sound bite by a media that doesn't really understand what it is reporting.

Right on the money ! Their star for this feature article, PVT Jeremy Hinzman fills your information request to a 'T'. Hinzman deserted, little more.

Quite frankly, the Army and her soldiers are better off without him.