China's Emergence as a Superpower (till 2014)

[Dayuhan]

Control is hard to relinquish, but at a certain point many issues long managed through control are better managed by a transition to influence.

What exactly do we control? How do you relinquish something you haven't got?

If Taiwan were lost it would be a serious naval defeat. Preventing Red China from taking the island means keeping control of the Taiwan Strait and that is a naval task.

Control of the strait is not exactly a navy vs navy issue... the US Navy's problem in that area is proximity to the mainland and land-based missiles and aircraft. For that reason, the US response to an imminent invasion - it's not like the preparations could be kept secret - would likely involve interdiction on inbound shipping (oil and other raw materials) and outbound shipping (manufactured goods bound for Europe, Africa, and the Middle East) in the Indian Ocean.

I personally think such an invasion is so unlikely that discussing it is largely a hypothetical exercise... look at China's minimal military sealift capacity. Do you think anyone would seriously want to mount an amphibious invasion on the scale of the Normandy landings in the age of satellite surveillance and guided missiles?

If the Chinese economy crashes (a real possibility), leading to major turmoil and the rise of a militarist government, then it's a possibility. Other than that, not likely.

I do not think a Taiwan conflict will see the direct engagement of US and PRC forces. Rather, the Chinese would likely deter direct US participation through economic leverage.

What economic leverage would that be? Economic leverage is a major factor deterring such an invasion.

[carl]

Dayuhan:

I can't disagree with much of what you say. When I said naval, I meant in the full sense of the word to include land based forces affecting control of a body of water etc., not just ship vs. ship. It would involve all kinds of things, including my favorite, naval mine warfare.