China's Emergence as a Superpower (till 2014)

[jmm99]

Taiwan, the Philippines or Vietnam within, say, my lifetime - which may or may not be a short guarantee.

As to planning, I'd expect that the PLA planning folks are war gaming all three scenarios. E.g., we might expect something similar to this 2009 RAND report, A Question of Balance: Political Context and Military Aspects of the China-Taiwan Dispute - 180+ pages of NOT a "slam dunk" for the US vs PRC.

But, on the whole, I'm a gullible sort and accept that, like their peace-loving agrarian reformer ancestors of 1948, the present PRC folks are peace-loving cultural reformers in the mold of Zheng He.

How do I know that to be true ? The People's Daily, Zheng He: Master explorer (April 6, 2011), tells me so:

China's motives were not conquest but expanding influence and knowledge of its culture. China had been richer and more cosmopolitan than any country in Europe for thousands of years. Already in the 1400's China and India represented more than half of the world's GDP together. A paragon of fair trade practices with conflicts internal rather than international. Then, like now, China supported stability over change domestically and abroad.

Zheng He's China wanted global prominence and respect matching its superiority. His mission: a charm offensive without historical precedent. He was the face of expansionist friendly China. People's Daily described him as an "Ambassador of Peace." For the most part he was, unless provoked to defend national interests for which he is credited with masterful genius. Not until World War I would the world see the naval might Zheng He mobilized for his journeys as he single-handedly revolutionized navigation.

China was ahead of the world in most areas of development. He's fleet was larger than anything the world had known, with expeditions of up to 317 ships and around 28,000 men aboard — experts calculate 20,000 of them were military men. Crews with interpreters of many languages, astrologers, astronomers, doctors, pharmacists, entertainers, diplomatic and protocol experts to coordinate official receptions with dignitaries in the more than 35 countries visited.

The intent of the voyages was to create a showcase of the splendor and strength of the Ming dynasty not trade, conquer or as a crusade to promote China's religions.

"These were friendly diplomatic activities. During the overall course of the seven voyages to the Western Ocean, Zheng He did not occupy a single piece of land, establish any fortress or seize any wealth from other countries. In the commercial and trade activities, he adopted the practice of giving more than he received, and thus he was welcomed and lauded by the people of the various countries along his routes,"

stated Xu Zu-yuan, PRC Vice Minister of Communications, on July 2004.

A goal was to bring foreign VIPs to China's imperial court. It was a Noah's ark gathering of top diplomats to introduce them to its sphere of influence. It was not hard to convince key foreign figures to accompany Zheng He in an all-expense-paid trip to China's to meet the emperor.

I'm sure the current PLAN would be happy to offer Ray and his fellow Indian flag officers a luxury trip to the nearest Chinese port.

Besides, so long as its trade routes are open, why should China take the risks of a blockade and of a nuclear war easily mounted from US Micronesia ?

US Blockade.jpg

Of course, the PLA and the PLA Navy (the oddest thing, an army's navy) may miscalculate, etc.

And, there is that troublesome Geoff Wade again, who just refuses to see Zheng He as an "Ambassador of Peace" - Power grew out of Zheng He's gunboats (Asia Times Online, Jan 26, 2012).

BTW: The Singapore E-Press and the Asia Research Institute (Geoff Wade is POC) have assembled all of the references to Southeast Asia contained within the MSL (the Ming Shi-lu, aka Veritable Records of the Ming Dynasty) and provides them to readers in English-language translation. Each of the shi-lu comprises an account of one emperor's reign, for each of the emperors of Ming China (1368-1644). See, Wade, The Ming Shi-lu as a source for Southeast Asian History (2005).

Regards

Mike

[Backwards Observer]

Speaking of the Merlion City, from a couple months ago:

Singapore's Foreign Minister K Shanmugam has warned the United States against anti-China rhetoric:

[...]

There is also a tendency, he added, in the media, to portray politics in ''win-lose sporting terms'' and the US engagement in Asia ''as a means to contain China''.

''Such rhetoric is a mistake on many levels,'' he said. ''The world and Asia are big enough to accommodate a rising China and a reinvigorated US.''

Singapore warns US against anti-China election rhetoric - BBC - Feb 9, 2012.

Not sure what he's worried about here, as the dialogue is generously populated with China sympathisers, camp followers and those who paint China as pure as the driven snow. More to the point, it's probably a given that no commenter on SWC, in attempting to put forth an argument, would wittingly stoop to a continuous loop of goalpost-shifting nincompoopery and specious exaggeration, periodically laced with vapid expressions of soft bigotry and overly-biased ignorance.

[Ray]

Speaking of the Merlion City, from a couple months ago:



Singapore warns US against anti-China election rhetoric - BBC - Feb 9, 2012.

Not sure what he's worried about here, as the dialogue is generously populated with China sympathisers, camp followers and those who paint China as pure as the driven snow. More to the point, it's probably a given that no commenter on SWC, in attempting to put forth an argument, would wittingly stoop to a continuous loop of goalpost-shifting nincompoopery and specious exaggeration, periodically laced with vapid expressions of soft bigotry and overly-biased ignorance.

Nice adjectives, adverbs and whole lot of English grammar thrown in to say a simple point!

Good to see you angry and not with smart innuendos for a change.

Thank Heavens you are now talking turkey!

Learn to take the thick with the thin.

No goal post have been shifted. The goalpost are where they are. Hallucination or effect of depressants may make one feel so!

Han cultural supremacy has been seen through.

Manchus may have succumbed but not all are Manchus, what ho?

Ignorance?

Speaking to yourself?

The facts are on the table.

No peripheral state will accept Chinese hegemony on fake maps or show of muscle!

Is that too hard to understand?

[Ray]

Remember how China covers selling weapons to rogue regime as Mugabwe and Sudan?

China 'NEVER interferes with the internal politics of a country'.

Indeed, even if they kill their own with Chinese weapons and aircraft!!

Ever so pious!

[Backwards Observer]

Nice adjectives to say a simple point!

Learn to take the thick with the thin.

No goal post have been shifted. The goalpost are where they are. Hallucination or effect of depressants may make one feel so!

Han cultural supremacy has been seen through.

Manchus may have succumbed but not all are Manchus, what ho?

Ignorance?

Speaking to yourself?

The facts are on the table.

No peripheral state will accept Chinese hegemony on fake maps or show of muscle!

Is that too hard to understand?

Well said, Ray. Your swelling rhetorical priapism can only be admired by those less well-endowed.

[Ray]

Well said, Ray. Your swelling rhetorical priapism can only be admired by those less well-endowed.

Thank you.

You are ever so magnanimous in your pious offerings!

Left handed compliments in English and speaking from both sides of the mouth in American!

Nonetheless, thanks!

[Backwards Observer]

Thank you.

You are ever so magnanimous in your pious offerings!

Left handed compliments in English and speaking from both sides of the mouth in American!

Nonetheless, thanks!

You're welcome. A toast to your continuing efforts to plumb the depths of integrity whilst scaling the heights of incoherence.