China's Emergence as a Superpower (till 2014)

[Backwards Observer]

While important, in the end it appears to be same as it ever was.

Well then, enjoy.

[Backwards Observer]

Japan could tender a significant diplomatic coup in the restive region by gifting the Diaoyutai/Senkaku islands to Taiwan, pending a pledge by the PRC to (solemnly) recognise sole Taiwanese administration of said islands. Given the currents of human history, a peaceful gesture of this magnitude by all three parties would probably immediately lead to war. Such is life.

A major territorial dispute is brewing in the East China Sea.

As one of the founders of the United Nations, the Republic of China (Taiwan) believes it has the responsibility to resolve the dispute in a peaceful manner under the principles of the U.N. Charter. We are committed to the peaceful resolution because at the heart of the dispute are islands that belong to Taiwan.

These islands are known as the Diaoyutai Islands, which means “fishing platform” in Chinese. We see the islands as more than a platform for fishing, we also see them as a platform for peacemaking. (from The East China Sea Peace Initiative)

The East China Sea Peace Initiative - Taiwan Today

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(Image Source - Dwight Hwang Calligraphy)

[Bill Moore]

http://www.ted.com/playlists/73/the_...wer_shift.htmlAn interesting presentation on TED by the man who wrote, "When China Rules the World."

It is the third talk on global power shifts. A couple of key points I don't think many will refute.

Westerners tend to look at the world through western eyes, and incorrectly believe that when China modernizes will become like the West. The fact is the State of China is seen as more legitimate than any government in the West. The people view the State as the representative and protector of China's great culture.

The West hasn't had to learn about the rest of the world due to its power, if it didn't get its way it could always employ force, while most countries in the world couldn't do this. When China and East Asia surpasss the West as the geopolitical center of world power Europe will be lost, they're walking blind into the future now and have no idea how much the world is changing around them.

The first presentation by Paddy Ashdown was equally interesting. It is now projected that China will surpass the U.S. as the world's largest economy by 2020. Seems our rebalance strategy is a step in the right direction to me if we want to maintain secure access to the world's largest market.

[slapout9]

It is the third talk on global power shifts. A couple of key points I don't think many will refute.

Bill,
I wouldn't call it refuting the points but I will bring up some concerns. First one is wanting to rule the world is a pretty Western idea to begin with??? and assuming that China wants to do that may not be such a wise perspective to start with. As far as I can see China is pursuing a make China as great as possible policy, and if any body gets in the way then smack them down, if not don't worry about them.

IMO what makes China scary is they don't believe in any of that "Invisible Hand" Bullsheet that is spewed from American business schools. China has a planned program for success.......we give tax breaks to rich people as our policy for success......we may be doomed

[Bill Moore]

Bill,
I wouldn't call it refuting the points but I will bring up some concerns. First one is wanting to rule the world is a pretty Western idea to begin with??? and assuming that China wants to do that may not be such a wise perspective to start with. As far as I can see China is pursuing a make China as great as possible policy, and if any body gets in the way then smack them down, if not don't worry about them.

IMO what makes China scary is they don't believe in any of that "Invisible Hand" Bullsheet that is spewed from American business schools. China has a planned program for success.......we give tax breaks to rich people as our policy for success......we may be doomed

Slap that was the title of his book, that wasn't the point of the post or his presentation. You have to listen to it to pick up on some important points he is making.

[slapout9]

Slap that was the title of his book, that wasn't the point of the post or his presentation. You have to listen to it to pick up on some important points he is making.

Bill I got it and I did listen to the first 3 videos but still think the same way.

[Bill Moore]

Bill I got it and I did listen to the first 3 videos but still think the same way.

If you mean you don't think China want's to rule the world I agree. I don't think they want to be bothered with an Empire, but they do want to become the leading power in the Asia-Pacific and marginalize the U.S. in the region, which "could" have a somewhat devastating economic impact on the U.S., since East Asia is now the world's economic power house and will likely continue to be in the coming decades. That would be a threat to our vital national security interests.

If you recall the first video the speaker talked about the probability of conflict being pretty high when another power arises that challenges the existing power. That is the concern, and I think/suspect that both China and U.S. would prefer to avoid conflict even if history isn't on our side. History may not repeat itself, but it still rhymes, and we may see a shift from ideological conflicts back to economic conflicts in the coming years.

Globalism isn't new, and a popular argument in Europe prior to WWI was that war in Europe was impossible because the economies were so integrated. That is a mitigating factor, but obviously it wasn't the decisive one.

[Dayuhan]

The fact is the State of China is seen as more legitimate than any government in the West. The people view the State as the representative and protector of China's great culture.

All 1.3 billion of them? What's the basis for that assumption?

China's huge domestic economic and political problems seem often underrated in conversations on this topic

IMO what makes China scary is they don't believe in any of that "Invisible Hand" Bullsheet that is spewed from American business schools. China has a planned program for success.......we give tax breaks to rich people as our policy for success......we may be doomed

You think the rich in China don't get tax breaks? Have you any idea of the scale of corruption in that country?

[slapout9]

You think the rich in China don't get tax breaks? Have you any idea of the scale of corruption in that country?

I work for a company that has a rather large factory in China and soon one in Cambodia for that matter, so I am somewhat familiar with the corruption problem as in big country, big population, big corruption.



Link to 60 minutes piece on China's Real estate bubble H/T to Fab Max for posting it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxjwh...layer_embedded

[Bill Moore]

All 1.3 billion of them? What's the basis for that assumption?

China's huge domestic economic and political problems seem often underrated in conversations on this topic



You think the rich in China don't get tax breaks? Have you any idea of the scale of corruption in that country?

Dayuhan, I think you posted elsewhere that you couldn't access videos in your location, something to due with the nice tropical weather interfering with your bandwidth The speaker actually goes into a fair amount of detail on why he thinks the Chinese view their government as legitimate and points out it is not near as centralized as most of us think. He does point out that most Chinese identify themselves as Han, so those that don't like Tibetans, Uyghers, etc. don't share that view. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with his argument, simply posted it for consideration.

[Dayuhan]

Dayuhan, I think you posted elsewhere that you couldn't access videos in your location, something to due with the nice tropical weather interfering with your bandwidth The speaker actually goes into a fair amount of detail on why he thinks the Chinese view their government as legitimate and points out it is not near as centralized as most of us think. He does point out that most Chinese identify themselves as Han, so those that don't like Tibetans, Uyghers, etc. don't share that view. I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with his argument, simply posted it for consideration.

I do have a hard time loading videos, and I'd also really rather read, if the matter is at all serious. I have read various perspectives on the subject. Any time you start talking about what "the Chinese" collectively think of their government you're on thin ice: in China, as everywhere else, there's a spectrum of opinion. There's certainly a sense of renewed nationalism and pride; the government gets a fair bit of credit for that and tries very hard to promote it. There's also a whole lot of anger and frustration, much of it directed at local governments, over corruption, rising inequality, an increasingly unliveable environment, and many other things. There are conflicting currents and opinion can swing very quickly. To put it's simply, it's way too complex to write off with a simple statement of what the Chinese think.

I do think the Chinese government is very deeply concerned with the possibility of domestic unrest, and that when growth starts to stutter they may rely on jingoism to sustain support. Thay also know that's dangerous.

It's complicated, like a lot of other things.