talk to the hard hand
Here's my guess for how a Taiwan scenario might play out. If a fracas starts, guys like the jovial General Liu "Power Machine Made Of Violence" Yuan will move to the forefront and Taiwan will be wiped flat in the first 72 hours. No invasion, no negotiation. Then the real fun begins. Curtis LeMay and 'Linebacker II in '64' fans will understand this, I'm sure.
Would the US allow Taiwan to fold up because of a Mainland attack?
And would the Communists dare attacking Taiwan given the US business inroads into China?
Will China's economic progress survive without the US?
China's economy survives on copycating foreign items and goods and selling it cheap and shoddy.
If that route is closed, when what happens to China?
Last edited by Ray; 05-24-2011 at 07:12 AM.
Maybe I mentioned this before in SWC...
U.S.shipbuilding 2010 - deliveries
http://shipbuildinghistory.com/today...tivity2010.htm
16 Large Deep-Draft Vessels and Structures
(= actual "ships", including five for the USN)
29 Offshore Service Vessels
9 Crew Boats
81 Towing Vessels
23 Passenger Vessels > 50 feet in Length
8 Commercial Fishing Vessels > 50 feet in Length
19 Other Self-Propelled Vessels > 50 feet in Length
14 Large Oceangoing Barges (> 5000 GT)
Without Great Lakes, Mississippi/Missouri and the Gulf of Mexico oil industry there would be almost no shipbuilding industry left in the nation that produced insane quantities of ships and warships in 1942-1945 and won the Pacific War that way. The current shipyard capacity of the United States would be hard-pressed to meet the peacetime shipbuilding program of the early 1900's.
-------------------------
The global shipbuilding share of the United States in 2009 was 0.4%, less than Croatia's, Denmark's and Poland's (individually!!!). China: 28.4%.
(source: http://www.sajn.or.jp/e/statistics/S...s_Mar2010e.pdf PDF page 5)
The Koreans, among others, build ships cheaper.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
Posts moved
Moderator's Note
A number of recent posts in this thread on disorder / insurgency / terrorism in China's far west provinces have been moved to a more appropriate thread, re-titled as 'China's Far West provinces: a Small War':http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...read.php?t=246
That thread is the Central Asia area, not Asia-Pacific as this is.
There maybe similar posts in other threads yet to be found.
davidbfpo
owner of a ronery heart
Tell me Sister, all men are (not) brothers?
China losing Asian popularity contest - Asia Times - Aug 17, 2011.China losing Asian popularity contest
By Jian Junbo
LONDON - Though China purses a "good neighbor policy" in Asia, it faces increasing criticism from regional officials, media and populations. It seems the time is ripe for Beijing to review and improve its Asia strategy.
Water Margin (All Men Are Brothers) - Wikipedia
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Not the only one...Originally Posted by Backwards Observer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xh_9QhRzJEs
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
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