China's Emergence as a Superpower (till 2014)

[carl]

Dayuhan:

True. But you will note that in both my posts I said what I said depended upon the USN being out of the picture.

[Dayuhan]

Dayuhan:

True. But you will note that in both my posts I said what I said depended upon the USN being out of the picture.

The point I'm trying to make is that the USN can operate effectively against China without being physically close to China. Why would we fight them where they are strong when we can fight them where they are weak? That being the case, why must we assume that we need the capacity to fight close to the Chinese mainland?

[carl]

Point granted. However that was not the point under consideration, since I said, twice, what I was said depended upon the USN being out of the picture. Now I've said that 3 times.

[Dayuhan]

Instead of repeating it, why not tell us why you think it matters. I can't see that it does.

PS to clarify the above: I'm not sure what you mean by "in the picture" here. The USN does not need to be physically anywhere near Taiwan to be "in the picture" in such a case, if we define "in the picture" as "capable of inflicting unacceptable consequences". Too much of the discourse on US capabilities vs Chinese capabilities seems to assume a need to operate within the range of land-based aircraft and missiles. It seems to me legitimate to question whether this need actually exists, especially since maintaining such a capacity would be an extremely expensive venture.

[carl]

Sorry Dayuhan. The short exchange between me and the Cuyahoga Kid was pretty clear and plain. Nothing else I can do to clarify it.

[carl]

David:

If a bunch of Americans are deciding the fate of Asia I don't see why an Englishman can't join in.

My guess is any RoC people caught on the mainland in the event of trouble would lay very low and quiet. The secret police would not look upon obstreperous behavior with favor.

The anti-Apartheid stuff worked because it didn't cost much money. The feel good/financial pain balance was way over on the left. If people tried in on Red China it would shift way over to the right and it wouldn't be done.

The financial question is a good one and I have no clue.

[Dayuhan]

Sorry Dayuhan. The short exchange between me and the Cuyahoga Kid was pretty clear and plain. Nothing else I can do to clarify it.

Sorry, I'm not seeing it. Possibly I'm just dense. Why would the Chinese blockade Taiwan unless they were actually prepared for a full-scale war with the US, a war with enormous risk and not much potential gain for them? Why would they go into a war in which they know their antagonist can inflict enormous damage on them without ever coming within range of most of their weapons? A war that could potentially go nuclear? To gain what?

Do you assume the Chinese to be irrational, or unskilled at weighing profit and risk?

To enter into a blockade, the Chinese would have to be either absolutely 100% sure that there would be no response, or absolutely 100% sure that they could win a war. That kind of certainty is a tough thing to come by in this world, and Chinese behavior has not typically tended toward that kind of brinksmanship. The status quo is not going all that badly for them, and when that's the case you don't rock the boat unless you are very sure it will rock your way.

[carl]

If you are not seeing it, it is because you choose not to.

Read what was written, all of it.

[davidbfpo]

I know we have discussed the defence of the RoC / Taiwan before, which Carl has raised again, posing his question.

My first reaction to offensive action by PRC was how would the one million RoC citizens who have been reported to reside in PRC react? Even if outnumbered and there mainly pursuing business and with a good number of students.

On reflection I cannot recall any mention of Taiwan's non-military capabilities, notably financial to possibly disrupt the PRC.

Then's the evolving, if ephemeral feeling that "small is beautiful, leave them alone". It is not as if the larger states have an impeccable record, say in comparison to Switzerland. Imagine if buying Chinese products was frowned upon by a movement akin to Anti-Apartheid - Boycott the Bully. Yes I know many cite a US bank's decision on South African loans was the catalyst for change. The Chinese have historically paid great attention to 'face'.

Apologies for this non-American interlude.