China's Emergence as a Superpower (till 2014)

[Stan]

I'm not really sure how to respond to this...

I'll just borrow one of your quotes real quick for my summation

12. Having DOOMED SPIES, doing certain things openly for
purposes of deception, and allowing our spies to know of them and
report them to the enemy.

[slapout9]

Hi JeffC, how about trying this. I learned this at the SMART wars workshop.

Simple country analysis:
1-system assets
2-system attitude
3-system technology state
4-system scope
5-system obstacles
6-system momentum

Do one for China and do one for the US and show who is winning or losing.

[JeffC]

Hi JeffC, how about trying this. I learned this at the SMART wars workshop.

Simple country analysis:
1-system assets
2-system attitude
3-system technology state
4-system scope
5-system obstacles
6-system momentum

Do one for China and do one for the US and show who is winning or losing.

That's an interesting application of Systems Analysis, but it would only show where the two nations stand today, and we already know the answer to that. In order to see if the U.S. will continue to be a Superpower in the future, you would need to look at trends, both in the U.S. and in China, and based on those trends, project an outcome at some point in the future.

[Ron Humphrey]

I would have to heartily agree that this was a well done paper, packed with good information and kept short sweet and to the point.

That being said as to where the future lies I find myself reviewing one main thought process.

China is adept at taking what works and doesn't work for others and learning from it. They have very little compunction about anything from ethical, moral, or social restriction in research, re-engineering, medical practice, etc unless it finds itself in conflict with the desires of the leadership.

They have seen what can happen to a society completely dependant on socialist or communist principles alone and have not failed to adjust some of their eco policies in this regard.

They have large enough populace that they can contain any number of types of societies within their borders while still maintaining the overwhelming communist base. And further more they are part and parcel one of the most planned out societies in history.

Any actions, reactions, planning or hope to understand their path must:

1- Take nothing for granted as possible or not

2- Expect to see any known weaknesses of democratic society well exploited

3- Expect to see economy of scales largely used for political and geographic goals

4- expect a willingness to work with any country who may help to create such instabilities as would be beneficial to said future

5- Always expect that they see what you see

Just somewhat of a part-time preoccupation of mine

[JeffC]

I would have to heartily agree that this was a well done paper, packed with good information and kept short sweet and to the point.

Thanks!

5- Always expect that they see what you see

I'll add one more to your list. Remember that no one sees everything, so anticipate what you don't know (easier said then done, of course).

[Global Scout]

JeffC,

While I enjoyed the paper, I thought it was inconclusive and I am not exactly sure what your point was. For example, China, and several other countries, are modernizing their military, and of course the U.S. Special Operations is seen as especially effective, so they'll adapt that model where it fits. As for UAVs, not only is China adapting them, so is Hezbollah, and I'm sure several other countries. Economic competition? France, Russia, UK, and a slew of others. My point is you could have selected a number of countries and have basically written the same paper with minor changes. I'm not arguing with your facts, but with your slant. China may be a looming menance to our national security, but this paper was not convincing. I think a serious counter argument could be made that China is very fragile on a number of levels, militarily, politically, and economically. I still enjoyed the paper though, thanks.

[JeffC]

[QUOTE=Global Scout;32488]JeffC,

Hi Global Scout

While I enjoyed the paper, I thought it was inconclusive and I am not exactly sure what your point was.

My primary point was that China will most likely become the world's next Superpower, while my secondary point was that the U.S. should pay attention to its own fragilities in that regard (partricularly it's growing reliance on foreign nation's owning our debt, and our nation's declining Science and Math graduates).

For example, China, and several other countries, are modernizing their military, and of course the U.S. Special Operations is seen as especially effective, so they'll adapt that model where it fits.

The underlying point for my example of China's modeling of U.S. Special Operations Command techniques is that China is leveraging what we do best as a means of rapid development for their own nation's advancement. They follow that method across the board: technology, education, military, consumer goods.

My point is you could have selected a number of countries and have basically written the same paper with minor changes.

I don't believe that to be the case. China's in a unique position due to it's enormous population with its undeniable attraction as consumers for global companies, the size of its military, it's nuclear capability, it's scientific community, and the fact that it currently holds almost US$1.5 Trillion in foreign debt (and that's expected to continue to rise). None of those factors can be duplicated by any other nation except possibly India, and that to a much lesser extent.

I'm not arguing with your facts, but with your slant. China may be a looming menance to our national security, but this paper was not convincing. I think a serious counter argument could be made that China is very fragile on a number of levels, militarily, politically, and economically.

That's fair, and accurate. China isn't a Superpower yet, and it does face serious problems, although I don't believe that any of them are insurmountable.

My main concern with some of the skeptics that I've read regarding China is that they seem to think that acknowledging China's rise to power is somehow un-patriotic. If history teaches us anything about the rise and fall of nations, it's that a great nation (like the U.S.) takes its position for granted at its peril. In my opinion, in order for the U.S. to remain a great nation, it needs to use clear vision in viewing both its own troubles (and fixing them) and its competitors' strengths. I don't see that happening as often as it should.

I still enjoyed the paper though, thanks.

My pleasure.