China's Emergence as a Superpower (till 2014)

[SWJED]

7 Feb Washington Times - China's Emergence as Military Power Splits Strategists on Threat to U.S..

A new Pentagon strategy report and recent congressional testimony by the director of national intelligence show the Bush administration remains divided on the threat posed by China's rise.

The Quadrennial Defense Review report made public last week bluntly states that China is the greatest potential challenge to the U.S. military and is rapidly building up its military.

John Negroponte, the director of national intelligence, by contrast, stated in an annual intelligence threat briefing for Congress that China's rise is similar to that of democratic India. He left out any reference to the threat to Asia or the United States posed by the military buildup...

Some officials -- who dominate the State Department and the intelligence agencies -- consider China a nonthreatening state that will evolve into a benign power through trade and other global economic interaction.

Other officials, however, view China as a growing potential danger, engaged in strategic deception to mask hidden goals and objectives...

[Strickland]

7 Feb Washington Times - China's Emergence as Military Power Splits Strategists on Threat to U.S..

So if I understand the above article correctly, when the US pursues foreign markets, foreign direct investment, and foreign arms sales, it is simply pursuing its national interest through security cooperation; however, when the Chinese do it, it is some sort of aggressive move aimed at weakening US interests by destabilizing regional alliances in preparation for the forward projection of the PLA?

As Barnett writes, "until there are equal rules, we are not all equal."

[Jedburgh]

Amid all the discussion of China's current and potential capabilities to project power - economic and military - beyond its borders, here's some discussion of the internal stability issues China is facing...

RAND Congressional Testimony: Challenges to China’s Internal Security Strategy

...and a special issue of the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief

[Stu-6]

Has China really done anything aggressive? I mean they might be pretty rough on other Chinese but have they really threatened the US? I think we are looking for an enemy here. It seems that we want another Cold War. If I was a cynic I’d suspect a military-industrial complex

[Martin]

Stu-6, first two examples coming to mind:
A Chinese general threatened to use nuclear weapons.
The official line is that they will use force in case Taiwan declares independance, the direct implication of which is use of force against the US (because of alliance).

Also of consequence is how the Chinese dictatorship would handle themselves in a strong international position (assertiveness, need to unite people, etc). I remember reading that asian societies tend to want a hierarchy rather than a multipolar system.

I think the Chinese would gain more from draining the US of information by sending their people to the universities and spies in the industries rather than conquering it. If you'd have a threat from the Chinese in that case, it would be more of isolation and affecting opinion and policy in the US.

Just IMHO...

Martin

[Stu-6]

While you maybe right your examples ring hollow to me. I don’t recall China saying anything more threaten about nuclear weapons than any other nuclear state facing a strong conventional threat, to include the US during the Cold War. Also while China has made threats directed towards Taiwan there has never been a formal alliance between the US and Taiwan, to the best of my recollection from Nixon until the current administration the US was always deliberately ambiguous on the situation.

[SWJED]

16 Feb. Washington Times - Commercial Photos Show Chinese Nuke Buildup.

Commercial satellite photos made public recently provide a new look at China's nuclear forces and bases images that include the first view of a secret underwater submarine tunnel.

A Pentagon official said the photograph of the tunnel entrance reveals for the first time a key element of China's hidden military buildup. Similar but more detailed intelligence photos of the entrance are highly classified within the U.S. government, the official said.

"The Chinese have a whole network of secret facilities that the U.S. government understands but cannot make public," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. "This is the first public revelation of China's secret buildup."

The photographs, taken from 2000 to 2004, show China's Xia-class ballistic missile submarine docked at the Jianggezhuang base, located on the Yellow Sea in Shandong province.

Nuclear warheads for the submarine's 12 JL-1 missiles are thought to be stored inside an underwater tunnel that was photographed about 450 meters to the northwest of the submarine. The high-resolution satellite photo shows a waterway leading to a ground-covered facility.

Other photographs show additional underground military facilities, including the Feidong air base in Anhui province with a runway built into a nearby hill...

[Jedburgh]

From RAND: Chinese Responses to US Military Transformation and Implications for the DoD

Chinese strategists have avidly consumed U.S. Department of Defense writings over the past 10 years and have keenly observed the changing nature of U.S. national strategy and military transformation. Commentary by People’s Liberation Army (PLA) experts on Operation Iraqi Freedom suggests that Beijing believes the Pentagon’s efforts at achieving a Revolution in Military Affairs are not just succeeding, but accelerating. Yet the concomitant acceleration of the pace of Chinese military modernization also suggests that the Chinese are not dissuaded by U.S. military prowess, but instead are driven by a range of strategic and military motivations to continue their efforts apace. This report examines potential Chinese responses to U.S. transformation efforts and offers possible U.S. counterresponses. It should be of interest to analysts, warfighters, and policymakers who seek to better understand the modernization trajectory of the Chinese military, and the potential implications of PLA efforts for U.S. military capabilities in a potential China-Taiwan scenario...

[SWJED]

Released yesterday - DoD's Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People's Republic of China.

The FY2000 National Defense Authorization Act (Section 1202) directs the Secretary of Defense to submit a report "…on the current and future military strategy of the People’s Republic of China. The report shall address the current and probable future course of military-technological development on the People’s Liberation Army and the tenets and probable development of Chinese grand strategy, security strategy, and military strategy, and of the military organizations and operational concepts, through the next 20 years."

This report, submitted in response to the FY2000 National Defense Authorization Act, addresses (1) China’s grand strategy, security strategy, and military strategy; (2) developments in China’s military doctrine and force structure, to include developments in advanced technologies which would enhance China’s military capabilities; and, (3) the security situation in the Taiwan Strait.

The link contains five reports, 2002 through 2006.

I have also placed links to all the MSM buzz about the report on today's SWJ Daily News page

[goesh]

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...esItRight.aspx

According to this article (Jim Jubak), China is in the lead with this concept/application. 50 years ago, China was essentially an agrarian economy. Their 3 Gorge Dam when fully functional will produce 9x the output of Hoover Dam and they are soon implimenting some massive road construction projects and they're into outer space and nuclear active.

[tequila]

In 50 years, I think the industrialization and economic rise of China will be looked back on as the world-historical event of our lifetime - far surpassing the Iraq War or 9/11 or the GWOT - on par with the industrial rise of continental Europe and the United States from 1865-1912.

[LawVol]

Food for thought on China's rise:

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/c...?story_id=3719

I'm not completely convinced that China is the same threat as the Soviet Union, Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan was at one time. I'm not saying we shouldn't be prepared, I just don't think the sky is falling.

[tequila]

I agree that they are not a genuine military threat as those other powers were.

[goesh]

I hope you guys are right but if you were the bosses over there, what in the he** would you do with 1.3+ billion people? Our DNA that makes us tribal pretty much dictates expansion and control of land/resources. I still say they are going to start building carriers and projecting force into the sea lanes and no amount of intelligent, researched reasoning and analysis is going to make me think to the contrary. They remind me of Wal-Mart heavily armed and I'm not yet conditioning my grandchildren to liking chop sooey, but we as a nation better be on our toes and get some things turned around. China doesn't have the immigration problem we have nor the Islamic fundamentalist problem we have. When the latter flares up on them and there are rumblings to that affect already, they have a proven model and recourse of action, Tibet, that they will employ without any compunction and they won't spend a cent on grooming perceptions, images and spin over their actions . World opinion be damned. Blowing up mosques and shooting any and all curfew violators will do wonders in convincing the ummah in any pocket of unrest to follow the Chinese party line. Nor will they ever be burdened with the Entitlement mind-set the West has and the counter productive burden it imposes. An old Circuit Court Judge once told me, " everyone has so much freedom, nobody has any freedom any more". Their criminals don't live better than their victims and that mind set is most conducive to economic, political and military dominance IMO.

[JeffC]

I don't know how many of the posters here subscribe to John McCreary's NightWatch newsletter, but as a free resource I find its contents preferable to most of the more mainstream outlets. Here's the relevant bit:

China-Central Asia: Yesterday the Ministry of Foreign Affairs summarized the results of Premier Wen Jiabao's swing through central Asia and Russia between 2 and 6 November. Wen paid official visits to Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Belarus and Russia; attended the sixth meeting of the Prime Ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Tashkent; and led the Chinese delegation to the 12th China-Russia Prime Ministers’ regular meeting, where he attended the closing ceremony for the “China Year “in Moscow.

It is no accident that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization members were the first to be visited after the 17th National Congress approved the latest leadership lineup. China’s turn to the countries in the Asian landmass is historic and strategic because these are the barbarian lands in antiquity and more recently they were hostile as members of the Soviet Union. After years of meetings that achieved little, they are now becoming the centerpiece of a non-western strategic economic center. High oil and natural gas prices are reshaping trade and development patterns faster.

The level of interaction seems to be gathering momentum as patterns of trade shift. For example, in Uzbekistan, China promised to buy more cotton, as part of the ten cooperation agreements signed last week in Tashkent. To ensure the cotton reaches China, China has agreed to accelerate transit road construction across Kyrgyzstan. China also intends to continue to expand the railroads that will link to the Chinese system. The Chinese quest for resources is accelerating the development of the continent.

Older maps show China’s railroad west of Urumqi ending at the Chinese border so that invaders from the Soviet Union could not use it. Now it is a 32 hour train trip from Urumqi to Almaty, Kazakhstan and costs $63. Many readers will not know there are two rail systems from Moscow to the Far East: the well-known Trans-Siberian Railway and the newer Silk Road route that links all the central Asian states and terminates in Beijing.

As a visual aid, McCreary includes a map displaying the growth of the two railroad lines, and when you add that to the existing transportation hubs that tie into Moscow, you can clearly see the potential for a game-changing shift of power from the Western hemisphere to the Far East, driven by the rapid technological development of a nation that contains 20% of the world's population.

[JeffC]

I just wrote an analysis entitled "Divine Manipulation of the Threads: China's Certain Rise to World Dominance in the 21st Century" that's available for download at IntelFusion. I'd love to hear any comments on it.

[Stan]

Hey Jeff !

I just wrote an analysis entitled "Divine Manipulation of the Threads: China's Certain Rise to World Dominance in the 21st Century" that's available for download at IntelFusion. I'd love to hear any comments on it.

Well Done...An excellent read !

I've been asked this boring question a gazillion times as a Harley driver: Why did/does China hold the USA's most-favored-nation trade status ? What in creation was Bill thinking about in 94

Great job, Stan

[JeffC]

Hey Jeff !



Well Done...An excellent read !

I've been asked this boring question a gazillion times as a Harley driver: Why did/does China hold the USA's most-favored-nation trade status ? What in creation was Bill thinking about in 94

Great job, Stan

Thanks, Stan. I appreciate it.

Regarding MFN status, it was a vastly different China back in '94. I doubt if anyone could have predicted the way things shifted in only 10 years. And today, the answer for MFN continuing is simple. They own a huge portion of our debt. If we squeeze, they squeeze harder. And American consumers have a low pain tolerance, if you know what I mean.

[bismark17]

Good article! I never did verify this but read on slashdot how one of their subs recently popped up close to one of our carrier groups without being spotted. It wouldn't surprise me with how the U.S. has been neglecting funding in it's ASW capabilities.

[Bill Moore]

JMA,

I don't think the U.S. or any other nation for that matter is unaware of the big changes regarding China's assertiveness. Russia is also more assertive. The question is how to manage and respond to it. The U.S.'s ability to influence based on superpower status is waning, but it is still very powerful. I am not sure what you are proposing the U.S. do at this point that it isn't already doing? I hope you are not proposing we go to war with China over some important, but still relatively minor incidents the SCS? I can't see how that will benefit us, or the global economy.

LawVol posted,

Have we focused too much on the "war of terror" and thus dropped the ball in the Pacific? Is this issue evidence of our need to pursue a different strategy with respect to terrorism, so we can remember the big picture?

Our narrow laser like focus on the WOT has been at a detriment to our larger interests, but it isn't that black and white. The WOT remains important, and the WOT is also being waged (intelligently) in the Asia-Pacific region. State powers have always leveraged surrogates, insurgencies and other violent and non-violent movements to further their own goals, so as during the Cold War we need to look under the blanket a little closer to see who all the players are. In my opinion we are intentionally deceiving ourselves now because the truth is too unpleasant to accept.