China's Emergence as a Superpower (till 2014)

[Rex Brynen]

An interesting counter-argument on China's rise to superpower status (and a "near-peer" challenger):

A Long Wait at the Gate to Greatness
By John Pomfret
Washington Post
Sunday, July 27, 2008; Page B01

Nikita Khrushchev said the Soviet Union would bury us, but these days, everybody seems to think that China is the one wielding the shovel. The People's Republic is on the march -- economically, militarily, even ideologically. Economists expect its GDP to surpass America's by 2025; its submarine fleet is reportedly growing five times faster than Washington's; even its capitalist authoritarianism is called a real alternative to the West's liberal democracy. China, the drumbeat goes, is poised to become the 800-pound gorilla of the international system, ready to dominate the 21st century the way the United States dominated the 20th.

Except that it's not.

Ever since I returned to the United States in 2004 from my last posting to China, as this newspaper's Beijing bureau chief, I've been struck by the breathless way we talk about that country. So often, our perceptions of the place have more to do with how we look at ourselves than with what's actually happening over there. Worried about the U.S. education system? China's becomes a model. Fretting about our military readiness? China's missiles pose a threat. Concerned about slipping U.S. global influence? China seems ready to take our place.

But is China really going to be another superpower? I doubt it.

[Ken White]

and a local China scholar -- and that's just two of whom I happen to be aware. With about six years in the Orient to bounce against my two in the ME, I'm pretty well convinced that in the ME, things are never as they seem while in the Orient, they are exactly as they seem.

All an excessively lengthy way of saying I think he's right...

[Fuchs]

The rise of PR China is much less the issue than the erosion of classic military power attributes of the West.

The shipyard industry of the U.S. is tiny, inferior to Croatia's or Poland's - but its navy is the biggest one.
Western steel production is much greater than in WW2 - but dwarfed by steel production in China.
Our electronics industry is good - but lots of electronics production happens in Asia.
Our chemical industry is strong - but new production plants are typically either close to natural gas resources or in Asia (because that's where so much of the manufacturing industry is now).
We still have huge populations - but their age structure and the rise of China and India to relevance dwarfes our mobilization strengths.

Even if you believe that major conventional wars are a thing of the past - we should adjust the perception of ourselves to reality.
It's not just the rise of developing countries that changes the balance - it's also our relative and often even absolute decline in many areas.

It would be dangerous to base our foreign policy on the feet of clay that the perception of our own strength really is.
Maybe the ongoing wars help our populations and politicians to understand the message.

[Watcher In The Middle]

is that we (the "West") look at China through Western eyes, and concepts. That's our filter, it what we've grown up with, so it's understandable. Problem is, we miss stuff as a result. Here's a great example of something missed:

China's `Underground' Loans Top $1.5 Trillion, Wen Wei Po Says
By Patricia Kuo

Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- So-called ``underground'' lending in China exceeds 10 trillion yuan ($1.5 trillion), the Wen Wei Po newspaper reported, citing lenders and market watchers it didn't identify.

Funding made available by unauthorized lenders including pawn shops and auction firms is thriving as banks tighten credit after a series of interest rate and reserve ratio increases, the Chinese-language newspaper said. Some such loans carry interest rates higher than 5 percent a month, it said.

LInk to the Article

Now, this is "off-the-books" lending that's not part of any official statistics, and in modern Western society, literally has no counterpart (Well, maybe loan sharking). But imagine $1.5 trillion dollars annually worth of loan sharking.

Or maybe a different, but more realistic comparison. How about the Chinese equivalent of sub-prime real estate mortgages?

[William F. Owen]

is that we (the "West") look at China through Western eyes, and concepts. That's our filter, it what we've grown up with, so it's understandable. Problem is, we miss stuff as a result. Here's a great example of something missed:

There's a huge difference between something you don't know and something you don't understand.

The idea that "Westerners" don't understand China (or the Middle East) is, IMO, simplistic, misleading and basically not true. There is, however a lot about China, we don't know.

The Chinese are very pretty easy to understand, and what it more there is a whole raft of westerners, who read and speak Chinese, who are good at understanding them. It is simply a matter of values, and assembling them in the right order.

The idea that the Chinese are complexity and arcane is an out growth of "China Watchers" wanting to make themselves more skilled than they actually are. What has emerged is a perception that doing the blindingly obvious is somehow clever.

A friend of mine sat through a very uncomfortable dinner in Singapore where a Washington based "China Expert" was lecturing a Thai Air Force officer on the Chinese threat to Thailand. After about 20 mins, the RTAF guy held up his hand and asked "Do you speak Cantonese?" The Expert said he spoke a little. The RTAF guy then suggested, "perhaps if we speak Cantonese, you will improve." No one laughed. If they had, they would have lost face.

[Ken White]

Have to again agree with Wilf. The Chinese and most Asians are really pretty straightforward. They are just far more patient than westerners and they talk less than -- or do not think out loud like -- westerners. Compared the the absolute duplicity, legerdemain and flat out lies in the ME (all in western terms, not those of the ME), Asians are an open book.

Saving face is quite far from an Asian-only activity...

[Jedburgh]

SSI, 17 Sep 08: The "People" in the PLA: Recruitment, Training, and Education in China's Military

This volume represents the latest in the series published by the Strategic Studies Institute and describes the advances and reforms the PLA has made in its recruitment, officer and NCO training and education, and mobilization. As part of its larger reform effort to modernize and transform its military into a technologically sophisticated force, the PLA has implemented a number of measures aimed at training up a “new-type” officer for its modernized forces—one capable of operating effectively in a technologically advanced “informationalized” environment. This volume sheds light on such important questions as how the PLA’s personnel system is adapting to fulfill the requirements of a military force capable of “winning local wars under informationalized conditions” and how the PLA is cultivating a new generation of officers and what capabilities these new officers will likely possess.

Complete 401-page document at the link.

[blueblood]

The rise of PR China is much less the issue than the erosion of classic military power attributes of the West.

The shipyard industry of the U.S. is tiny, inferior to Croatia's or Poland's - but its navy is the biggest one.
Western steel production is much greater than in WW2 - but dwarfed by steel production in China.
Our electronics industry is good - but lots of electronics production happens in Asia.
Our chemical industry is strong - but new production plants are typically either close to natural gas resources or in Asia (because that's where so much of the manufacturing industry is now).
We still have huge populations - but their age structure and the rise of China and India to relevance dwarfes our mobilization strengths.

Even if you believe that major conventional wars are a thing of the past - we should adjust the perception of ourselves to reality.
It's not just the rise of developing countries that changes the balance - it's also our relative and often even absolute decline in many areas.

It would be dangerous to base our foreign policy on the feet of clay that the perception of our own strength really is.
Maybe the ongoing wars help our populations and politicians to understand the message.

China's shipbuilding capacity or rather manufacturing capacity as a whole is huge and it's only getting bigger.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/busines...t_11863027.htm

http://news.chinaa2z.com/news/html/2...256244750.html

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/photo/2...nt_9366573.htm

But China still lacks a formidable semiconductor industry like other East Asian nations like Japan And South Korea and also their technology will need some 10 - 20 years to be on par with West. Their natural resources are dwindling fast but they are trying to have a stronghold in Central Asia and its abundant natural resources.

India on the other hand is all together a different story, unlike China our growth is driven by the private sector so it will take a bit more time when compared to China. But then again India is no threat to any country other than Pakistan and up to certain extent China.

Regarding mobilization of American and European troops to China, I don't think its feasible as China's population is nearly twice as much as that of the whole Europe therefore it has a very large pool to draw soldiers and after its economic success, a surge of nationalism and assertiveness has engulfed the nation.

Thanks.

[davidbfpo]

Paul Rogers writes, with a variety of links, to technical comments on the J-20 fighter and the strategic and ends with:

...by allowing the release of information about the J-20 they may also achieve the aim of diverting some of America's best scientific and technological talent into big new defence projects - while China maintains the priority of building its civil economy. Such a policy would be even more complicated for the United States: for if a jungle full of elusive snakes was difficult to "keep track of", a devious new dragon that remains one step ahead even as you think you have its measure - that is much more tricky.

Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-ro...hreat-or-twist

[davidbfpo]

From IISS Strategic Comments:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...air-dominance/

[AdamG]

Beijing, Feb 12 : Terming US attempts to woo India and other neighbours of China as "unbearable," an article in a Communist party magazine has said that Beijing must send a "clear signal" to these countries that it is ready to go to war to safeguard its national interests.

The article published in the Qiushi Journal, the official publication of the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) said China must adhere to a basic strategic principle of not initiating war but being ready to counterattack.

"We must send a clear signal to our neighbouring countries that we don't fear war, and we are prepared at any time to go to war to safeguard our national interests," the article said, suggesting an aggressive strategy to counter emerging US alliances in the region.

and

China on its part, it said, can consider the idea of launching economic warfare through strategies to contain the US dollar and making effective use of forums like the IMF and initiating a space war by developing strong space weapons.

It also suggested as a counter-strategy the idea of pursuing a strong policy against neighbours joining the US alliance, even attacking a nearby enemy and forming anti-US alliances in Latin America and Africa.

http://www.indiatvnews.com/news/Worl...arty-3010.html