China's Emergence as a Superpower (till 2014)

[Ray]

This is nothing at all new... the dispute is old and the US position is as well. The US considers the Spratlys to be disputed territory, not an integral part of the Philippines... which makes sense, because deciding these disputes is not in any way up to the US. Given this, Chinese military action in the Spratlys is not regarded as an attack on the Philippines and would not trigger the mutual defense pact. Again, this has been the US position for ages, and comes out every time the issue comes up, as it has done periodically for decades.

There's a big difference between being willing to protect allies from actual attack on their territory and taking a blanket position of support that actually encourages allies to take an unnecessarily bellicose stance that could provoke a conflict that would benefit nobody. I don't see that kind of common sense as a disincentive to anyone who wants a mutual defense relationship with the US.

The armed forces of the Asia Pacific countries can only offer token resistance to China, hence China’s writ will run with Asia Pacific countries merely as bystanders. In short, they have no options. At best, they can sue for Peace on China’s terms.

The US on the other hand, has her national interests in the Asia Pacific region. In this connection this thread is pertinent:

Alliances and relationships are force multipliers. The more tightly integrated the US and its allies, the more convincing the signal to potential adversaries that the United States is committed to the defence of those partners – in other words, it strengthens our deterrent. And that is the most important element of our security strategy in the Asia Pacific.
http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...429#post122429

If Alliance and Pact Partners of the US, who have no military clout, find the US allowing them to succumb to China’s pressure tactics, then the Alliance and Pact becomes redundant and useless.

If in their time of need, the US does not show some sort of solidarity with them, then such Pacts with the US would remain suspect and it would not be surprising if such countries wonder if there is any guarantee that the US will honour its commitment or fight shy that it would go against US' interests.

If one observes the US Pacts from the Third World perspective and not from the US perspective, Pakistan, which was in the CENTO and SEATO, has felt let down by the US when the push came to shove. Even now, when Pakistan’s very existence depends on US finance and military assistance, they are very wary of the US. On the other hand, China, without doing as much as the US, is assisting Pakistan in key areas of concerns, riding at times against the tide of international opinion. It is obvious, that China is being perceived as 'a friend in need, is a friend indeed'. This is not lost of the Third World countries.

Observe the situation of Taiwan. One never knows when, where and which side the cat will jump. A sense of deep insecurity. It is not material whether there is One China policy or Two China policy. The US had always charged itself with the defence of Taiwan, come what may. Now, it is ‘iffy’.

Philippines has been left on the limb. I am not too sure if they have a Defence Pact with the US or not. It is obvious they feel that they have been let down if one goes by statement of its government.

What may appear as common sense to the US wherein US interest overrides Pact/ Alliance obligations, such common sense remains obviously a disincentive for Third World countries to enter into Pacts and Agreements.

It would not be a strange if one is wary of ‘fair weather friends’, more so, when faced with a totally disproportionately strong adversary breathing down the neck.

[Backwards Observer]

The armed forces of the Asia Pacific countries can only offer token resistance to China, hence China’s writ will run with Asia Pacific countries merely as bystanders. In short, they have no options. At best, they can sue for Peace on China’s terms.

Ray, do you think India would go to war with China to protect Taiwan or any other Asia-Pacific country? As a close neighbour, wouldn't it be common sense to do so?

[Ray]

Ray, do you think India would go to war with China to protect Taiwan or any other Asia-Pacific country? As a close neighbour, wouldn't it be common sense to do so?

India does not have a military alliance or Pact with any country and hence, I presume, it will just be a bystander.

In Afghanistan, India should show more than platonic interest, but then not much can be expected of the Indian Govt.

[Backwards Observer]

India does not have a military alliance or Pact with any country and hence, I presume, it will just be a bystander.

In Afghanistan, India should show more than platonic interest, but then not much can be expected of the Indian Govt.

Ray, thanks for replying. Do you think a military alliance between the US and India would be a potent enough deterrent to China? What are your feelings on the likelihood of such an alliance/pact from the Indian side?