China's Emergence as a Superpower (till 2014)

[Dayuhan]

Worth a look...

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...r-hu?page=show

Before and After Hu
Is China Better Off Than It Was Ten Years Ago?

...If the Chinese people were allowed such a choice, however, they would likely ask the perennial question of U.S. presidential elections since the time of Ronald Reagan, albeit in a slightly modified form: Are you better off now than you were ten years ago?

Despite all that is made of China’s spectacular rise, the numbers show that many people in China would likely answer no. As Hu prepares to leave office, China is prosperous but staggeringly unequal, and strong but profoundly insecure. Indeed, in recent years, China has experienced intensifying clashes between bottom-up demands for social equality, individual freedoms, and environmental stewardship and the Chinese Communist Party’s aggressive defense of the status quo...

...That so many domestic problems are coming to a head at the same time reveals that the premises on which China’s economic miracle have rested are proving untenable in the long term.

[Bob's World]

As China continues to rise, I believe two very interesting conditions rise with it:

1. US influence as a strong, but distant, security partner for the nations living within China's strengthening sphere of influence is growing. These nations do not want the monopolistic relationships (with us or against us) that the US has grown used to, but rather want to grow both strong economic relations with China, while balancing with greater security relations with the US. We need to appreciate this and play it to our advantage. We should also appreciate that these nations are not looking to rush into some grand Chinese coalition and exclude us from the region. Most worked far too hard for their independence, and simply wish to sustain it.

2. China has had a major (untold millions killed) internal revolution in each of the past 3 centuries. Those with more knowledge on this can probably attest to more. As the growing economy places growing pressure on seems and cracks within Chinese society their internal instability will continue to grow. I suspect the government of China is far more concerned with a handful of powerful populace groups than they are with the US Navy or Air Force. My prediction is that China is far more likely to implode in than explode out, and that they are nearer to their next revolution than they are to their last.

(But Western Nations are wise to appreciate that the "100 years of humiliation" and clearly expressed red lines are very real to China, and we do well to stop poking this growing, but restlessly sleeping dragon with little sticks. If we do not make room for Chinese influence in the world, they will take the room they believe they deserve. Better to sort this out now rather than overly cling to postures that are long obsolete.)

[Dayuhan]

The Chinese will certainly try to play the nationalist card ("we deserve to rule because we made China great again") to distract the populace from their domestic issues. They're doing it now and they will continue. They will do this whether or not we cooperate by providing a unifying threat, but it will be more effective if we fall into the trap of providing that threat.

[Fuchs]

It will be a bit more difficult to play up the U.S. as huge threat as long as both countries are doing so much business together.
Even the ruling elite's wealth will suffer if said business was reduced.

India and even Japan would probably be more beneficial bogeymen to the Chinese elites.

I suppose the march towards rivalry is in an essential part a U.S. move, for the military-industrial-congressional-think tank complex needs a new bogeyman now that Arabs are less and less suitable as such.
Romney wanted to revive the Russian bogeyman in order to keep business with China intact and probably to bolster influence in East Europe, but Obama appears to have decided 'in favour' of rivalry with China instead.

The army lobby loses - while navy, marines and air force lobbies win.

[Dayuhan]

The Chinese need a bogeyman more than the US does - they have a military-industrial complex too, and their corruption probably exceeds even that of the US - and the US is by far the most credible candidate. Business is no obstacle, never has been, as long as you can scare the populace without interfering with business... which exactly what the Chinese have been trying to do, generally successfully.

[Backwards Observer]

2013 - Year of the Snake

Barack Obama - Metal Ox -

Like metal, these Oxen are amazingly strong. They’re extremely hard-working individuals who will do whatever is necessary to achieve their goals. They’re trustworthy, dependable individuals who are not likely to show emotion. They have difficulty interpreting the feelings of others.

Ox Fortune - 2013, Year of the Snake

$$$

Vladimir Putin - Water Dragon -

Water calms the Dragon’s fire. Water Dragons are able to see things from other points of view. They don’t have the need to always be right. Their decisions, if well-researched, are usually better since they allow others to become involved.

Dragon Fortune -2013, Year of the Snake

$$$

Manmohan Singh - Water Monkey -

Water Monkeys are extremely sensitive and often feel hurt by the things that are said to them. They refuse to show their sensitive side to others and as a result, are extreme jokesters. If they can stay focused, they can succeed, but more often than not, they’re easily distracted from their goals.

Monkey Fortune - 2013, Year of the Snake

$$$

Xi Jinping - Water Snake -

Influential, motivated, insightful, and highly intellectual are words that best characterize Water Snakes. These Snakes work well with others and enjoy being recognized and rewarded. They’ll reveal feelings to those closest to them, but no one else.

Snake Fortune - 2013, Year of the Snake

[Fuchs]

The Chinese need a bogeyman more than the US does - they have a military-industrial complex too, and their corruption probably exceeds even that of the US - and the US is by far the most credible candidate. Business is no obstacle, never has been, as long as you can scare the populace without interfering with business... which exactly what the Chinese have been trying to do, generally successfully.

You seem to disregard the Chinese situation.

Their story is the revival of the great Chinese nation from the ashes of the embarrassing 19th century up to 1945 period.
They do not need so much a bogeyman (too bad I used the term myself) as an antagonist - and it suits them to have a now inferior antagonist since, after all, they are now back in their natural greatness and glory!

Japan with its nationalism and particular history concerning the Chinese fits nicely, and even India fits. The U.S. will only fit nicely once it's widely perceived in the PRC as being well past its zenith IMO.

[Dayuhan]

People who think China is destined to swallow the world should be paying close attention to what's going on inside...

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/22/wo...=fb-share&_r=0

For Chinese children and their devoted parents, education has long been seen as the key to getting ahead in a highly competitive society. But just as money and power grease business deals and civil servant promotions, the academic race here is increasingly rigged in favor of the wealthy and well connected, who pay large sums and use connections to give their children an edge at government-run schools...

...“Corruption is pervasive in every part of Chinese society, and education is no exception,” Mr. Li said...

[Ray]

People who think China is destined to swallow the world should be paying close attention to what's going on inside...

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/22/wo...=fb-share&_r=0

One wonders if they are wanting to 'swallow the world'. But what does this indicate?

China angers neighbours with sea claims on new passports


The Philippines and Vietnam condemned Chinese passports containing a map of China's disputed maritime claims on Thursday, branding the new design a violation of their sovereignty.

The map means countries disputing the Chinese claims will have to stamp microchip-equipped passports of countless visitors, in effect acquiescing to the Chinese point of view.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...aterialsSector

[Dayuhan]

One wonders if they are wanting to 'swallow the world'. But what does this indicate?

The question is less what they want than what they can do. They won't be able to swallow anything if they're choking on their own internal issues. I wouldn't want to guess at the timing, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if a significant internal conflict is coming down the road over there. Of course that could end up in the drivers seat and things could wind up worse, but that's beyond anyone's capacity to predict or control.

The passport thing is just one more in a long line of little bouts of pushing and shoving, wouldn't assign it any great importance.

[davidbfpo]

A different perspective:

We’d all assume that China would come to Brazil for the sole reason that there are resources it wants here. That, after all, would be the dominant tale in Australia where I am now based. Chinese Overseas Direct Investment, we’re all reassured, is driven by the country’s immense hunger for energy and minerals to feed its massive industrial and manufacturing needs. Brazil has an abundance of these. So, logically, you’d look to see Chinese investment going into these sectors.

And in fact that was true till the end of 2010. But then things changed dramatically. The vast bulk of Chinese money coming into Brazil since then has been into services, into leasing, into supporting its export industries – into, in fact, the very same sectors it has gone into in Europe.

A taster followed by a punch line - with my emphasis:

The idea that Chinese overseas investment is some highly strategic, well articulated and structured force is almost certainly wrong for the very simple reason that many of the main actors on the Chinese side are as puzzled and surprised by what is happening as people are outside.

This mutual confusion explains why, at least for the short to medium term future, these conferences on China are not likely to disappear. They are simply a testament to how hard we are all finding it to make sense of what is happening.

Link:http://blogs.nottingham.ac.uk/chinap...her-countries/

[Dayuhan]

If there's no apparent strategic logic to an investment pattern, it's always possible that the investing party is simply trying to make money. People, companies, even nations do invest for profit as well as for strategic gain.

[Ray]

Taipei protests China’s new passports

China’s official maps have long included Taiwan and the South China Sea as Chinese territory, but the act of including those in its passports could be seen as a provocation since it would require other nations to tacitly endorse those claims by affixing their official seals to the documents.
Presidential Office spokesman Fan Chiang Tai-chi (范姜泰基) said President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) hoped China would not take inappropriate action to break the hard-earned stability across the Taiwan Strait.
Fan Chiang said the two famous tourist destinations are “under the jurisdiction of the Republic of China [ROC] government and not under the control of China.”
He said Ma had instructed the Mainland Affairs Council to issue a statement on the issue.
Fang Chiang said the government promotes cross-strait exchanges on the basis of “not recognizing each other’s sovereignty and not denying each other’s right to rule.”

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/fron.../24/2003548465

It is not only the non Chinese who are riled, but also Taiwan, who are also Chinese.

Therefore, it is only the Red or Communist Chinese and the like who are the one who are trying to create issues that can only unnecessarily upset the stability of the area.

Hegemonic pursuit is known, but not in such a crass and crude manner.

The peace and stability of the region should not be imbalanced.

Soon the major part of the US naval fleet will shift from the Middle East to the Asia Pacific region.

Therefore, it will become a tinderbox and the Communist Chinese aggressive initiative is hardly worth its while to act as a match to the fire.

Peace is the necessity and not confrontation, physical or contrived!

It is a hope in hell if China feels that it can physically capture the areas they claim to give credence to their dreams!

China puts Himalayan claims on passport map, India maps its own

India on Friday termed as 'unacceptable' China depicting Arunachal Pradesh and Aksai Chin as its territory in maps of the country on their new e-passports, a step that led to retaliatory action by New Delhi.

China sprung the surprise on India when it showed these territories as part of its own in the maps on their new e-passports.

The Indian Embassy in Beijing responded by issuing visas to Chinese nationals with a map of India including Arunachal and Aksai Chin as part of its territory.

In India's first official reaction, External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid said,"We are not prepared to accept it."

"We, therefore, ensure that our flags of disagreement are put out immediately when something happens. We can do it in an agreeable way or you can do it in a disagreeable way," he told a TV channel.

China, on its part, sort of fudged the issue with its Foreign Ministry Spokesperson saying that the matter should be dealt with in a 'level headed and rational manner' to avoid 'unnecessary disruptions' to people to people exchanges.
http://www.deccanchronicle.com/chann...ps-its-own-829

[Ray]

People, companies, even nations do invest for profit as well as for strategic gain.

What strategic aim has China to invest around the world to including making inroads into the US and western economies?

He who pays the piper calls the tune!

[Fuchs]

I suppose in the case of the U.S. there might be some interesting potential given the influence of money on elections and the (afaik) fact that foreign parties must not donate such money while foreign-controlled ones (say, with 45% foreign-held shares) can do.

Maybe the Chinese want to outdo the U.S. in a corruption race to the bottom by accelerating the latter.

What strategic aim has China to invest around the world to including making inroads into the US and western economies?

He who pays the piper calls the tune!

Seriously; a country with goods and services balance surplus (such as Chin) has by definition a capital export surplus. It owns a lot of foreign money. You can put this into foreign government bonds, but that's not 100% unproblematic if said government may simply decide to solve a debt problem by ordering its central bank to print more money (which the U.S. can, while South Europeans cannot anymore - it even works despite inflation-indexed bonds).

The Chinese need practically no specific reason to invest abroad. They have the cash, and its only uses are abroad. It's that simple.

[Dayuhan]

A look at the emergence of more aggressive voices among the Chinese military/foreign policy elite:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...90G00C20130117

What remains to be seen is whether these voices represent a dominant bloc or are making actual policy, or whether they are encouraged as the harsh half of a good cop/bad cop routine.

If the Chinese ever did decide to do a "limited war" just to show will, they would of course want to have a go at the Philippines. A limited naval encounter with Japan would be way too equal for the Chinese liking and would very likely end with the Chinese taking a black eye and a bloody nose, which would be politically catastrophic. Even the Vietnamese could pull a surprise or two.

The question of course would be how far the Chinese could go against the Philippines without suffering repercussions that could affect trade and an increasingly vulnerable domestic economy. My guess is that if they limited it to sinking or seizing a few ships and expelling the Philippine garrison from the Spratlys, they could probably get away with it, meaning the consequences would be manageable. An attack on the major islands would be a lot more problematic.

It could happen. Probably won't, but it could. We'll see...

[Ray]

China ships in waters around disputed islands: Japan

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, speaking at a joint news conference with Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida in Washington on Friday, said the disputed area was under Japan's administration and hence protected under a US security treaty with Tokyo.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/global-fi...-islands-japan

[Ray]

Japan talk of warning shots heats up China dispute

Japan says it may fire warning shots and take other measures to keep foreign aircraft from violating its airspace in the latest verbal blast between Tokyo and Beijing that raises concerns that a dispute over hotly contested islands could spin out of control.

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/news/world/art...#ixzz2IVRG8PvL

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to The Lowy Institute and Zenpundit for drawing attention to:

During the panel discussion on the Chinese Navy last week at the USNI West Conference in San Diego, Captain James Fanell, Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence and Information Operations for US Pacific Fleet had some “bracing” comments about the Chinese Navy. When I quote “bracing” I am actually quoting Sam Roggeveen of the Australian Lowy Institute Interpreter blog.

What makes the comments “bracing” is that they are both blunt and honest in commentary.

What did the Captain say? You can watch the video or peruse select quotes:

Select quotes:

(China’s) expansion into the blue waters are largely about countering the US Pacific fleet.’
The PLA Navy is going to sea to learn how to do naval warfare…Make no mistake: the PRC navy is focused on war at sea, and sinking an opposing fleet.’
On China Marine Surveillance, which supervises and patrols China’s claimed maritime territory: ‘If you map out their harassments you will see that they form a curved front that has over time expanded out against the coast of China’s neighbours, becoming the infamous nine-dashed line, plus the entire East China Sea…China is negotiating for control of other nations’ resources off their coasts; what’s mine is mine, and we’ll negotiate what’s yours.’
China Marine Surveillance cutters have no other mission but to harass other nations into submitting to China’s expansive claims…China Marine Surveillance is a full-time maritime sovereignty harassment organisation’.
In my opinion, China is knowingly, operationally and incrementally seizing maritime rights of its neighbours under the rubric of a maritime history that is not only contested in the international community but has largely been fabricated by Chinese government propaganda bureaus in order to “educate” the populous about China’s rich maritime history, clearly as a tool to sustain the Party’s control.’

The video:http://thomaspmbarnett.com/globlogiz...avy-video.html

Lowy Institute:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...m-US-Navy.aspx

Zenpundit:http://zenpundit.com/?p=19115

[Backwards Observer]

I love the smell of honesty in the morning.

"Kill Japs, kill Japs, kill more Japs!" - Fleet Admiral William “Bull” Halsey, Jr.

WW II Quotes - wwiidogtags.com