Quote Originally Posted by Culpeper View Post
AQI doesn't come close to the infrastructure of North Vietnam's ability to fight both as a guerrilla presence and a standing conventional force poised for the final conventional victory. A Tet action would result in a defeat for AQI. In fact, it would be a blessing in disguise for counterinsurgency if they would come out in the open to be decimated, which is what usually happens when they go on the offensive in large number. At least, numbers that "they" consider large. How many Viet Cong and NVA were wiped out by the end of Tet? How many Viet Cong and NVA were directly involved in the fighting during Tet? It would be almost an insult to the Vietnamese Communists to compare what they organized and orchestrated during Tet to the haphazardly organized AQI in comaprison. About all AQI can do is create instability in certain regions for a given amount of time. "Not losing" no longer applies just for the insurgents. It now also applies to the counterinsurgent as well.

Exactly. AQI tried a "Mini-Tet" in July 2004. (ref'd in my book The Terrorist of Iraq: pg 325 "Black Thursday - the one day Salafist Mini Jihad" )

That was the first and last time Zarqawi attempted to seize several cities in the north and west simultaneously using all of his resources and allies. It almost went un-noticed, because they came out, hit lots of checkpoints with SVBIEDs, went to city halls, made a few public announcements and hauled ass off before US foces could completely decimate them. Killed over 92 people. AQI has no depth and or capacity except to continue the small scale actions and SVBIED attcks or (PLEASE!) attack us everywhere all at once with all of their Jihadis ... if they did, it would be most satisfying.