Annapolis and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

[Jedburgh]

ICG, 20 Oct 07: The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

The process that will be launched shortly at Annapolis may not quite be do-or-die for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process but at the very least it is do-or-barely-survive. Positively, a U.S. administration that neglected Middle East peacemaking since taking office appears committed to an intensive effort: it has persuaded both sides to agree to negotiate final status issues – no mean feat after years of diplomatic paralysis and violent conflict. But pitfalls are equally impressive. The meeting, like the process it aims to spawn, occurs in a highly politicised context, with sharp divisions in the Palestinian and Israeli camps. These will make it hard to reach agreement and to sell it to both constituencies and, for the foreseeable future, virtually impossible to implement. Moreover, failure of the negotiations could discredit both leaderships, while further undermining faith in diplomacy and the two state solution.....

Complete 20 page paper at the link.

[Danny]

Thanks for the link. Here is my prediction, and I must say that I take no responsibility whatsoever for being proven wrong in the future. I will disavow any knowledge of my prediction should it proven wrong, and claim full credit for it should it be proven right.

Jerusalem is the 900 lbm gorilla in the room, and it will prevent anything substantive from coming from this effort. Condi wants to give it away, and Olmert is willing to do whatever it takes to make for an appearance of good process, just like sending infantry to their death two days before he knew he would end the recent war with Hezbollah. For doing this, I will never forgive him. Olmert should have picked up a rifle and said "follow me." Olmert is entirely a political creature, nothing more.

But neither one (Condi or Olmert) is powerful enough to have specific language that gives away Jerusalem (Likud is too strong for that), and without it, Palestinians will not be satisfied. End of story. Nothing will come from this. Either there will be no agreement, or the agreement will be so maleable as to mean anything the reader wants it to mean.

In fact, on my reading of the report, I think this is basically what it says. Condi is better to spend her time on something meaningful like trying to get the Maliki government to actually be a government. The State Department, well, they should do the same as Condi. Spend their time on something meaningful. I believe there is a war in Iraq at the present, the last time I looked.

Again, I take full credit if I'm right and forget all of this if I'm wrong.

[Rex Brynen]

Jerusalem is the 900 lbm gorilla in the room, and it will prevent anything substantive from coming from this effort. Condi wants to give it away, and Olmert is willing to do whatever it takes to make for an appearance of good process...

I think it will be very difficult for Annapolis (or, more accurately, the negotiation process that follows it) to make any forward progress. Although both leaders would like to move towards a deal (as they understand it), both are in politically weak positions. Moreover, as the ICG report notes, it will be absolutely essential that the US take an active role in advancing language, formulations, principles, and bridging positions. One of the problems of the 2000-01 negotiations era was that Washington was often reluctant to do so--I often wonder what might have been had the Clinton Parameters been advanced at Camp David, or a month or two later, instead of being left until the very last moment (December 2000).

On Jerusalem, I'm not sure what you mean by "giving it away." Israel's annexation of occupied East Jerusalem is not, of course, recognized by the US or the rest of the international community, and was formally rejected by the UN Security Council in UNSCR 478 (1980).

In accepting the Clinton Parameters in December 2000, Israel accepted the return of those areas of East Jerusalem that still had a Palestinian majority:

The general principle is that Arab areas are Palestinian and Jewish ones are Israeli. This would apply to the Old City as well. I urge the two sides to work on maps to create maximum contiguity for both sides.

Regarding the Haram/Temple Mount, I believe that the gaps are not related to practical administration but to the symbolic issues of sovereignty and to finding a way to accord respect to the religious beliefs of both sides.

I know you have been discussing a number of formulations, and you can agree on any of these. I add to these two additional formulations guaranteeing Palestinian effective control over Haram while respecting the conviction of the Jewish people. Regarding either one of these two formulations will be international monitoring to provide mutual confidence.

1. Palestinian sovereignty over the Haram and Israeli sovereignty over [the Western Wall and the space sacred to Judaism of which it is a part][the Western Wall and the Holy of Holies of which it is a part]. There will be a firm commitment by both not to excavate beneath the Haram or behind the Wall.
   
2. Palestinian shared sovereignty over the Haram and Israeli sovereignty over the Western Wall and shared functional sovereignty over the issue of excavation under the Haram and behind the Wall as mutual consent would be requested before any excavation can take place.

If there is ever a deal, I suspect it will be along these lines. Of course, there are an enormous number of details that would have to be negotiated--a couple of friends and colleagues (former ambassadors Michael Bell and Mike Molloy) have been running a major project on this which attempts to show how such issues might be addressed in the Old City.

[Danny]

By "giving it away," I mean simply nothing more than they have it now, and they wouldn't in the future. Whether something is recognized or not by whomever is irrelevant to my point. There have been lot's of agreements to do lot's of things that have never obtained (come to pass). My main point is looking forward rather than backwards in trying to come up with a prognostication. I stand by it ... so far.

[Stu-6]

There is more to it than just Jerusalem. Israel is not willing to great sovereignty to the Palestinians. Everyone talks of a 2 state solution but does anyone really thing the PA is going to be controlling their borders and importing weapons? Then there is the issue of Palestinian right of return, the Palestinians have not been able to let this one go and the Israelis can’t grant this one since it threatens the very nature of the Jewish state.

So until the Israeli will really allow Palestinian sovereignty and the Palestinians give up the right of return and they both find some way to compromise on Jerusalem, no real progress is going to happen. Anyone want to bet on all of that happening anytime soon?

[Danny]

Stu-6,

Yes, of course, you're right. I don't mean that Jerusalem is the only issue. I just picked out one (I considered to be the biggest). You list others, and perhaps I mentioned a micro-reason while you mentioned a set of macro-reasons. But we end up the same place.

Probability of all that happening as you asked?: Range of 1E-6 to 1E-5

They should spend their time on Iraq.

[SN100682136]

Pittsburgh and Tel Aviv, November 21, 2007 — With the Mideast Peace Summit in Annapolis, Maryland just days away, 100,000 Israelis and Palestinians living in the actual conflict zone are about to try their hands at solving the peace puzzle—one game at a time. In an unprecedented giveaway, the Peres Center for Peace is distributing 100,000 free copies of the interactive game PeaceMaker to people in Israel and the Palestinian territories.

PeaceMaker is an award-winning interactive game that allows players to get inside the unpredictable politics of peace, discovering firsthand the huge challenges of leading a country, a people, and an international process. PeaceMaker players must choose to play either as the Israeli Prime Minister or Palestinian President. In the course of a typical game, players encounter real-life incidents affecting the Mideast, from protests and political pressures to violent acts, and the player must decide what to do next in order to achieve a virtual peace.

Approximately 75,000 copies will be sent to subscribers of the Israeli daily newspaper Ha’aretz on November 27, with 10,000 copies of the game distributed through the Palestinian newspaper Al-Quds. An additional 15,000 copies of PeaceMaker will be distributed to Palestinian and Israeli high school classrooms and taught by specially trained teachers in the coming months.

Read Full txt at : http://www.peacemakergame.com/blog/
More at : http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/927824.html

Demo at : http://www.peacemakergame.com/demo.php

[goesh]

I probably should apologize for being just that but if I do, I would have to probably start helping my wife with the dishes. That said, I fail to see how these gaming devices are going to cut the mustard - sort of reminds me of the time the Hippies were going to levitate the Pentagon to end the Viet Nam war. These pieces of metal, plastic, glass, rubber and electricity are not going to bring person-to-person contact. Let me see the warts on a man's face and we can talk turkey, otherwise we both sit alone with our thoughts and emotions and either get mad or give up. It's a good idea, don't get me wrong, but perhaps some chess boards and a free candy bar for each player might be in order here to bring people togather, not some sterile electronic device where everybody sits safely at home pecking away in cyberspace.

[Rex Brynen]

I'm not a huge fan of the game (I've got too many quibbles with its realism), and I doubt that its distribution will change many attitudes. However, it must be said that the Peres Center does outstanding work promoting so-called P2P ("people-to-people") activities. The Director, Ron Pundak, has done outstanding work for Palestinian-Israeli peace--indeed, he was among the original negotiators of the Oslo Accords.

Coincidentally, Ron sent this email around a few days ago.. its a long post, but worth reproducing for the many varied activities it recounts:

Just Another Day at the Peres Center for Peace

Wednesday --just another day at the Peres Center for Peace.

In the morning, the inaugural meeting of the initiative "Wo.Me.N. the Women's Media Network" was held in the offices of one of our Palestinian partner organization. The meeting was attended by leading Israeli and Palestinian female journalists from the top-ranked broadcast and written media sources in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Israel. The women discussed their objectives for the professional network. A second meeting is set to be held in November, comprising the project's 16 Palestinian and Israeli participants.

In the afternoon, at Shenkar College of Engineering & Design in Tel Aviv, we held a professional training seminar for Palestinian businesspeople from the field of textile manufacturing, in cooperation with our partner PalTrade (Palestine Trade Center). Sixteen manufacturers from across the West Bank (Hebron, Bethlehem area, Tulkarem, Nablus, Jenin and Ramallah) took part in this 2-day seminar comprised of professional sessions that focused on use of cutting-edge computer programs for pattern design and other elements in the production process. During the afternoon of the first day, the participants received warm greetings from Mr. Dov Lautman, President and former Director-General of Delta Textiles.

Also on Wednesday morning, the Peres Center held the first meeting in a series of five encounters for a group of Israeli and Palestinian experts in agriculture, post-harvest care, marketing, and agricultural policies. The project is jointly undertaken with a Palestinian partner, and the initiative's research study has been submitted to "Action Against Hunger —Spain" (ACF-E). Within the framework of this project, joint research has been undertaken regarding the marketing of agricultural products from the Palestinian region of Tubas to Israel and abroad, and the meeting therefore focused on how to advance such business relations. At the end of the meeting, the participants proposed an initial business model, whose main goal is to support and expand the existing joint work of Palestinian and Israeli agriculturalists. The next meeting will be held in November.

Throughout that same day, as has been the case with nearly every day over the past four years, 12 Palestinian children were referred by their doctors to the Peres Center's "Saving Children" program, an initiative that allows Palestinian children to benefit from consultations and surgical procedures in Israeli hospitals when such treatment is unavailable in the Palestinian Authority. Five Palestinian children visited and/or were admitted to Israeli hospitals for diagnoses, treatment, and/or surgery.

In parallel, 40 Palestinian doctors who are undertaking fellowships in a variety of specialties and sub-specialties, continue to be trained and worked in multiple Israeli hospitals. Additionally, on Wednesday, a working session was held at Augusta Victoria Hospital in East Jerusalem with representatives from the Peres Center in order to discuss the progress of the development of the first Palestinian center for cochlear implants =96 microchips surgically embedded in a hearing-impaired patient's skull, saving the patient from permanent disability. Until the Palestinian center is established, these hearing-impaired children and youth are brought to Israeli hospitals for this complex surgery, via the "Saving Children" program.

Also during the visit to Augusta Victoria Hospital, Peres Center representatives were given a tour of the hospital's renovated wing, which is being built with funds recruited by the Peres Center. This wing is the first specifically dedicated to Palestinian children suffering from cancer. According to the plan, Palestinian doctors, nurses, and technicians who work in this wing will be trained in Israeli hospitals, through the facilitation of the Peres Center.

Then, during the afternoon hours, two meetings were held at the offices of the Peres Center for Palestinian and Israeli coaches' coordinators from the "Twinned Peace Sport Schools" program. The first meeting was held for coordinators from the "Twinned Peace Basketball Schools" program, and following their meeting, some 20 Palestinian and Israeli coordinators from the "Twinned Peace Football Schools" program met (the coaches came from Kiriyat Gat, Nehora, Kiriyat Ekron, Beit Shemesh, Shapir, Jericho, Sderot, Ein Rafa, Beit Safafa, Bethlehem, Tulkarem, Abu Tur, and Aqbat Jaber Refugee Camp). The Peres Center's "Twinned Peace Sport Schools" program includes 55 dedicated coaches from both sides, who jointly participated in a two-day seminar held a month and a half ago in preparation of the new academic year. The 2007-08 program includes some 2,500 Palestinian and Israeli boys and girls who benefit from sport training (football or basketball), Peace Education activities, auxiliary educational support and joint Palestinian-Israeli sporting and social activities.

And really, it was just an average Wednesday at the Peres Center for Peace

Dr. Ron Pundak
Director General
The Peres Center for Peace

[Firestaller]

I think the conference in Annapolis is more about strengthening the US-Isreali-Arab alliance against Iran and trying to bring Syria into the fold.


I think the only issue that may be resolved is the Golan Heights.

[Jedburgh]

ISN Security Watch, 26 Nov 07: Annapolis Misses The Point

....While well-intentioned, the US has missed an opportunity to establish the basis for genuine progress toward a grounded and resilient post-summit Palestinian-Israeli negotiations process through failing to focus the attentions of the parties in the lead-up on the mechanisms required for successful bilateral negotiations.

The conference has wasted considerable time, delaying the start of actual negotiations by several months as the two parties fenced, completely unnecessarily, over how to present key issues in the conflict in the final summit declaration.

With the sporadic involvement of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and other US officials contributing to the failure of both parties to find common ground, those issues, which should have been left to full negotiations - Jerusalem, borders and refugees - have been unnecessarily thrust to the forefront of the pre-summit debate.....

[Ron Humphrey]

While well-intentioned, the US has missed an opportunity to establish the basis for genuine progress toward a grounded and resilient post-summit Palestinian-Israeli negotiations process through failing to focus the attentions of the parties in the lead-up on the mechanisms required for successful bilateral negotiations.

This is probably an indicator of my academic youth but why does it always seem that academia in an of itself never fails to place success or failure of any venture mainly based on ( Structured, definitive, unfailingly directed) leadership without which there is no hope of said success.

I have seen a lot of conflict both on high levels and small levels and for the life of me it seems like those resolutions which actually stick more often than not were more hip-pocket, human error prone good ol flea market bargained ones.

Besides it's been tried just about every other way, what the hay
Let them try it on their own with us facilitating.

I think the conference in Annapolis is more about strengthening the US-Isreali-Arab alliance against Iran and trying to bring Syria into the fold.

Makes sense, why not

[Jedburgh]

I think the conference in Annapolis is more about strengthening the US-Isreali-Arab alliance against Iran and trying to bring Syria into the fold.

Brookings Institution, 14 Jan 08: Its Not About Iran

As President Bush travels through the Middle East, the prevailing assumption is that Arab states are primarily focused on the rising Iranian threat and that their attendance at the Annapolis conference with Israel in November was motivated by this threat. This assumption, reflected in the president's speech in the United Arab Emirates yesterday, could be a costly mistake.....

......Arab governments are less worried about the military power of Hamas and Hezbollah than they are about support for them among their publics. They are less worried about a military confrontation with Iran than about Iran's growing influence in the Arab world. In other words, what Arab governments truly fear is militancy and the public support for it that undermines their own popularity and stability.

In all this, they see Iran as a detrimental force but not as the primary cause of militant sentiment. Most Arab governments believe instead that the militancy is driven primarily by the absence of Arab-Israeli peace.....