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  1. #1
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
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    "These high-rise neighborhoods, built in the 1950s and 1960s to house a growing population of industrial workers and immigrants, have become near-ghettos where unemployment is high, public services are poor, and resentment boils.

    During the 2005 riots, some 300 buildings and 10,000 cars were burned, while 130 police and rioters were hurt.

    Since then, unrest has flared often after residents have run ins with the police.

    Police and government officials have a lingering fear that the poor suburbs could explode again because the underlying causes – high unemployment, few opportunities, drug trafficking and a sense of exclusion from society – have changed little"

    From the article, underlines are my own. It sounds to me like significant segments of the populace perceive their lot to be one where they have little hope to effect change though legitimate means; where they feel they are treated with disrespect as a matter of status; they cannot receive justice under the law; and likely feel that the government does not represent them or their interests (ie, lacks legitimacy as in regard to them). This is the witch's brew from which most insurgency comes.

    No amount of increased policing (enforcing the rule of law) or increased governmental handouts will likely quell this, and can likely make it worse. The time for COIN is long before these things exceed the capacity of the civil authorities. The government of France must recognize the need to change, and then adjust how it engages and supports these elements of the populace; much as the US Government had to do with the African American populace in the 60s, if they want to avoid sliding deeper into the conditions from which full-blown insurgency can erupt.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 07-18-2010 at 05:41 PM. Reason: Insert quotes
    Robert C. Jones
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    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

  2. #2
    Council Member slapout9's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post

    From the article, underlines are my own. It sounds to me like significant segments of the populace perceive their lot to be one where they have little hope to effect change though legitimate means; where they feel they are treated with disrespect as a matter of status; they cannot receive justice under the law; and likely feel that the government does not represent them or their interests (ie, lacks legitimacy as in regard to them). This is the witch's brew from which most insurgency comes.
    Highlights by me.
    It is not just France it here in America and it is growing!

  3. #3
    Council Member Bob's World's Avatar
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    It is every society; France, America, whereever. The key is to understand the signs, and how to build effective safety valves and off ramps for insurgency.

    In merica we are blessed by having a system of governance designed by a bunch of insurgents who found themselves suddenly in the counterinsurgency business.

    So, we have a government that is by design happily dysfunctional; with an armed and informed populace ever watching with a wary eye. We still trust in they system to produce leaders who draw their legitimacy from the populace, and that we have the means to change the same on a certain timeline. Do we like what we get? No populace does. This isn't about "like" and "dislike" or "effective" and "ineffective." It is much more primal and goes to core human higher order needs for respect, justice and a sense of having some control over ones destiny. All tailored by culture and society (No American can assess what is right for a Frenchman, let alone an Afghan or Sudanese); but we can trust them to be able to determine that for themselves and not second guess them in order to impose what we think is best.
    Robert C. Jones
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    (Understanding is more important than Knowledge)

    "The modern COIN mindset is when one arrogantly goes to some foreign land and attempts to make those who live there a lesser version of one's self. The FID mindset is when one humbly goes to some foreign land and seeks first to understand, and then to help in some small way for those who live there to be the best version of their own self." Colonel Robert C. Jones, US Army Special Forces (Retired)

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    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob's World View Post
    It is every society; France, America, whereever. The key is to understand the signs, and how to build effective safety valves and off ramps for insurgency.
    The French situation illustrates a problem that often complicates this equation: the steps necessary to placate one segment of the populace may infuriate another segment. In this case the less restrictive wage and tenure policies needed to generate employment for unskilled and semi-skilled workers are absolute anathema to the left and the organized labor sector, which have more clout in French politics than the immigrants and the domestic underclass. The government can't do what it needs to do to solve one problem without generating more effective (if likely less dramatic) resistance from other sectors.

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    I will try to explain immigration policies in France from 1 century, highlighting for you the key points, IMO.

    - Until the WWII, immigrants where mainly Europeans, mostly Italians and Spanish. They worked in rural economy, living in small towns.
    - After the 50's, most of immigrants comes from our ex-colonies (Vietnam, Africa, Maghreb [Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco]) : most of them were to close to French to stay safely in their countries.
    - From then 70's, we still have some few political refugees but most are economical immigrants. French law says that babies born on French lands can become French citizen, choice done by most of parents. The parents were (and still are) workers in building, automobile, they live in suburbs concentrating tensions in some small perimeters (NE Paris by example)

    Immigrants from the 70's were here for and had jobs. But their children, who are now adults suffers from having a stable job. We can discuss for hours the reasons of the unemployment, the facts are there.

    More than 50% of unemployment + lack of consideration = tension
    Tension + accident seen an unjustified = riot

    The accidents are mostly caused by car drivers without papers or the underground economy actors wanting to protect their territories from police or opponents.

  6. #6
    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Economic changes have had an impact. It no longer makes sense to import workers to fill low-skill low-wage manufacturing jobs; the labor intensive low-wage industries have all moved to Asia. A technology-intensive and largely post-industrial economy provides very limited opportunity for unskilled labor, especially when government demands that it be compensated with high wages.

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    Council Member M-A Lagrange's Avatar
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    If Paris is burning what about London or Birmingham on a saturday night.

    Restricting the issue to economical and immigration problematic is, I believe, a little light. (but makes long time I do not live in France except for vacations...).
    The problematic is much more complexe, but I agree with JPS2 on the analyse:

    More than 50% of unemployment + lack of consideration = tension
    Tension + accident seen an unjustified = riot

    But also, do not put all eggs in the same bag. There are plenty good guys in the banlieux.

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