Manging the Barbarians

[SteveMetz]

Doug MacGregor's interview below led me to just have an interesting discussion with Ray Millen (one of the perks of working in a think tank). Thought I'd float my admittedly half formed (and perhaps half baked) ideas here.

I've felt for a long time that what American strategy today is about is "managing the barbarians." States and empires have done this for thousands of years. Thus we could learn a lot by looking at the techniques our forebears have used to do it.

Basically, managing the barbarians was done through a range of methods: 1) assimilation; 2) raids and campaigns of punishment; 3) establishing settler communities; 4) cultivating and maintaining buffer states; 5) dividing the threat; 6) defensive measures, and, 7) co-opting/paying off the threat.

But current American strategy does not use this full range of techniques. Instead, we seek to make the barbarians like us (a variant of assimilation). Perhaps we would be more effective if we did, in fact, use the full range.

This has a very profound implication: I think most historic states and empires lost their ability to manage the barbarians less because of military weakness than because economic weakness eroded their ability to pay off buffer states, proxies, and enemies. This may mean that America's economic problems--decline of the dollar, declining competitiveness, etc.--will ultimately effect our ability to sustain our security more than anything that may or may not happen within the military and the security services.

OK, that's it. This is hereby declared a free flame zone (NOT a flame free zone. That would be wussie).

[tequila]

Is our supposed "forward assimilation" strategy really a genuine policy, rather than simply a culturally-based IO strategy? Basically, all hat no cattle?

I don't think it's that black-and-white, but I think when the rubber meets the road, it definitely leans towards the hat side.

Also, the "settler" strategy doesn't really sound viable for the U.S. in the 21st century, and I'd argue was never very effective. Off the top of my head, I cannot think of a successful settler strategy that actually involved "management" of a "barbarian" problem rather than out-and-out conquest.

[SteveMetz]

Is our supposed "forward assimilation" strategy really a genuine policy, rather than simply a culturally-based IO strategy? Basically, all hat no cattle?

I don't think it's that black-and-white, but I think when the rubber meets the road, it definitely leans towards the hat side.

Also, the "settler" strategy doesn't really sound viable for the U.S. in the 21st century.

Agree with your point on settler strategies. To flip it around, one of the most effective techniques that barbarians used against states and empires was penetration by settlers. Are we today in a period of "reverse imperialism"?

[Tom Odom]

Agree with your point on settler strategies. To flip it around, one of the most effective techniques that barbarians used against states and empires was penetration by settlers. Are we today in a period of "reverse imperialism"?

I would buy that one especially given the issue of illegal immigrants. In the effort to absolve the "guilt" associated with colonialism, we (and this includes Europe) have essentially set the stage for such a movement, albeit one not so organized as an invasion. In contrast, the former colonial areas are hyper-sensitive to anything that smacks of settlers. The only arena where the anti-settler/colony issue is white hot is of course Israel and Palestine.

best

Tom

[SteveMetz]

I would buy that one especially given the issue of illegal immigrants. In the effort to absolve the "guilt" associated with colonialism, we (and this includes Europe) have essentially set the stage for such a movement, albeit one not so organized as an invasion. In contrast, the former colonial areas are hyper-sensitive to anything that smacks of settlers. The only arena where the anti-settler/colony issue is white hot is of course Israel and Palestine.

best

Tom

It's not just illegal immigration. If you look at the downfall of the Roman Empire, you had lots of barbarians who elected to live within the empire because it was just a more pleasant place to hang out than their homelands. Over the long term, this eroded the coherence of the empire.

[Tom Odom]

It's not just illegal immigration. If you look at the downfall of the Roman Empire, you had lots of barbarians who elected to live within the empire because it was just a more pleasant place to hang out than their homelands. Over the long term, this eroded the coherence of the empire.

Oh I agree; the illegal problem is just the latest wave,,,

[goesh]

"This may mean that America's economic problems--decline of the dollar, declining competitiveness, etc.--will ultimately effect our ability to sustain our security more than anything that may or may not happen within the military and the security services." (Metz)

-makes alot of sense to me. Dependence on cheap, 3rd world labor for goods and services simply means to me a nation can no longer fight for lack of collective will to do so. When the collective dream and will centers on acquisition and possession, the drive and desire to create and sustain is about gone and the latter is all that is worth fighting for.

[Norfolk]

Now I'm trying to remember who wrote this, but sometime in the past few months I read where the effectiveness of Roman strategy progressively declined as Rome moved away from partially surrounding itself with client-states. The client states of course financed their own military forces and campaigns against external threats while Rome was able to reserve much of its own force for major threats or decisive operations, and not have to foot the anything like the full bill themselves. Augustus and his immediate successors had something very good going.

Admittedly, the Romans did not face anything like an equivalent threat in the east until the Persians overthrew the Parthians in the 3rd Century A.D., and it is doubtful that even reasonably capable client-states of Augustus' time such as Commagene would have lasted long against a Persian attack.

The author whose name I cannot recall did point out something critical about the Rhine and Danube frontiers. When the Romans disposed of their barbarian client-"states" in those areas during Augustus' time, the burden for the defense of those frontiers fell mainly upon the Roman Army (the remaining client-tribes were of little value beyond local reconnaissance and early-warning so to speak). After the failed attempted Roman pacification and annexation of Germany and the Pannonian Revolt in the Balkans, the Romans not only had to rely upon their own raw military force to keep both the local populations in order and the barbarians in check, they lost their ability to move the better of the Army to decisive theatres of operations, all in considerable part due to the fact that they had eliminated most of their client-state allies.

I would argue that prudent great powers had established systems of client-states prior to needing them in a crisis, whereas imprudent great powers had established or re-established client-states when their own military weakness had become critical. The Romans were good examples of both prudence and imprudence in the use of client-states. Prudently maintaining client-states while one was still militarily strong rather than imprudently annexing them and thus having not only to bear the entire military burden oneself, but also losing the freedom to move the bulk of one's military forces to decisive theatres of operations, is the way to go.

Once one finds oneself in the position of needing to create client-states (or tribes), or re-create said after one has already eliminated them, due to military weakness and over-extension, then such client-states are at best a measure of desperation. Given that the clients are aware of one's military weakness, they are then in the position of being able to either demand more resources from the weakened great power, or of throwing or threatening to throw their support to a rival power, etc. Attempting to assimilate, as Steve observed, is strategically futile in most cases.

In short, as far as client-states go, they're good before the fact, when you don't immediately need them, and a drain when to have to create them after the fact. The key of course, is not to militarily over-extend oneself in the first place. This may well be the condition the U.S. has entered into recently. As such, its options may be a good deal more constrained, especially when it comes to client-states/tribes and the like.

As for immigration, well of course it's reverse-colonization. Go to the great cities of Western Europe and North America and you'll see immigrant communities that have reached a critical level in that assimiliation of many of them into the general population is no longer possible. I live only an hour-and-a-half from a city of some millions where over half the population was born outside of North America. There are tens of thousands of kids born in Toronto, never been to their parents's homeland, but have never spoken any langauge other than that of the parents and rarely associate with anyone outside of their particular ethnic group. They don't even speak English as a second language. It's a growing problem, and the authorities are at a loss to know what to do about it.

[RaymondMillen]

The point of the title is not that we should adopt empire building but to note that former world powers undestood how to deal with non-state threats more pragmatically. As Dr Steve Metz and I bat around ideas, it occured to me that we of the modern nation state view the global environment through the eyes of state dominance in international politics. The state as we know it probably reached its pinnacle in the twentieth century, likely because of the tremendous resources devoted to both world wars and the cold war. That said, non-state threats were subsumed by the larger conflict and attention...and largely seen as part of the cold war struggle. So, as the cold war environment has faded, non-state threats are assuming their traditional position in the global and regional environment.

For great powers, it is a mistake to treat non-state threats as a state threat, turning a conflict into a minature WWII, ending with occupation and nation-building as the final signal of success. Rather, sometimes punitive expeditions often send the correct signal to non-state actors that provoking the United States has severe penalties without the payoffs (e.g., protracted insurgency and extensive financial investments) in the region.

As any great power recognizes from the Egyptians to Eisenhower, economic strength is the primary concern and anything which disrupts the financial health of the power should be avoided. So, when considering how to deal with traditional non-state threats, the United States would be wise to sue traditional means--punitive strikes, pay-offs of involved actors, creating buffer states or buffer tribal regions, etc. Whenever the United States intervenes with large and multiple headquarters, extensive military bases/camps, and economic incentives, it sends the message to the host state that the United States is invested in its success. Hence, both the host state actors and insurgents conspire whether they recognize it or not in prolonging the conflict. Financial gain is the driving incentive.

[SteveMetz]

The point of the title is not that we should adopt empire building but to note that former world powers undestood how to deal with non-state threats more pragmatically. As Dr Steve Metz and I bat around ideas, it occured to me that we of the modern nation state view the global environment through the eyes of state dominance in international politics. The state as we know it probably reached its pinnacle in the twentieth century, likely because of the tremendous resources devoted to both world wars and the cold war. That said, non-state threats were subsumed by the larger conflict and attention...and largely seen as part of the cold war struggle. So, as the cold war environment has faded, non-state threats are assuming their traditional position in the global and regional environment.

For great powers, it is a mistake to treat non-state threats as a state threat, turning a conflict into a minature WWII, ending with occupation and nation-building as the final signal of success. Rather, sometimes punitive expeditions often send the correct signal to non-state actors that provoking the United States has severe penalties without the payoffs (e.g., protracted insurgency and extensive financial investments) in the region.

As any great power recognizes from the Egyptians to Eisenhower, economic strength is the primary concern and anything which disrupts the financial health of the power should be avoided. So, when considering how to deal with traditional non-state threats, the United States would be wise to sue traditional means--punitive strikes, pay-offs of involved actors, creating buffer states or buffer tribal regions, etc. Whenever the United States intervenes with large and multiple headquarters, extensive military bases/camps, and economic incentives, it sends the message to the host state that the United States is invested in its success. Hence, both the host state actors and insurgents conspire whether they recognize it or not in prolonging the conflict. Financial gain is the driving incentive.

Shouldn't you be working instead of playing online?

[Ski]

A great deal to chew on here.

The cost benefit analysis for any military operation has to be measured very carefully - how much is it going to cost in terms of money (both long term estimates and short term estimates) and in terms of human costs. That's the major difference with how the US conducts warfare (in my opinion) and other empires (not equating the US with an empire).

The US follows moral codes for the most part. The Geneva conventions, laws of war, etc are treated with the utmost respect and soldiers are expected to be trained on them and know what the limitations of violence are. Empires in the past did not have to do that, so it was quite easy for Genghis Khan to eradicate Baghdad with little fear of reprisal. Now we have a 24 hour news cycle that reports on the most trivial of "news" and we are limited in what courses of action we can take. We are almost forced to adopt assimilation as the only method...

Norfolk raises a great point about how many immigrants do not adopt the culture, language and societal rules of their new countries. I remember driving through Milpitas, CA and seeing street signs in Vietnamese for an example. France is acting as labratory of sorts for this disconnection with their North African based communities.

The problem with Iraq is that we've used some techniques - paying off tribes/shieks as an example - but we haven't taken a side because there is some kind of belief that all groups are to be treated equally, which is an extremely foreign concept (along with democracy/mobocracy) to most Islamic cultures. We can't really ask the peshmerga to take care of that nasty Sunni insurgency because it means placing one group above another. This would be blogged to death by the media.

We also have been guilty of not taking our borders (and therefor, our soveirgnty (sp.)) seriously. The political parties, for differing reasons, want people from Central America to come in. If it was seen as being a serious problem, the measures would be enacted to strengthen our borders significantly instead of half assed measures we've seen for the last two decades. Even our legal immigration program has been slanted since the 60's towards certain areas of the globe, while other areas have been given fewer quotas on the number of people who want to legally immigrate.

[SteveMetz]

A great deal to chew on here.

I've always considered myself chew-worthy.

[Tom Odom]

The problem with Iraq is that we've used some techniques - paying off tribes/shieks as an example - but we haven't taken a side because there is some kind of belief that all groups are to be treated equally, which is an extremely foreign concept (along with democracy/mobocracy) to most Islamic cultures. We can't really ask the peshmerga to take care of that nasty Sunni insurgency because it means placing one group above another. This would be blogged to death by the media.

Ski

Good post but I would say we have taken sides and not always recognized that we were in fact doing so. We have certainly accomodated the Kurdish side all along. We took the Shia side early on under the rubric of reconciliation when it was anything but that. Now we are in bed with the Sunnis of all sides.

Best

Tom