If we leave the Afghan Army in charge, won't the Taliban bribe the generals with drug money and make them look the other way?
If we leave the Afghan Army in charge, won't the Taliban bribe the generals with drug money and make them look the other way?
Originally Posted by SteveMetz
Although that might be tried
There would not likely be many who took the bribe expecting to have everything be honky dory once the Taliban took power again. They have not been out of power long enough for the Afghans to forget how they run things. Couple that with the fact that their return would equal the elimination of many, many who have helped fight against them and I don't think you find a peoples too terribly excited about a return regardless how they may feel at the moment.
No more than they would if we were in charge.
A presence of westerners who do not do business in the south asian way deters a lot of that (but not all). The presence will be required for a long time, old habits fie hard...
If we're needed for a long time, how do we determine the optimal number of troops? Doesn't doctrine say that COIN is very labor intensive?
Doctrine does not say that, common wisdom
does, sort of; it postulates about 20 COIN personnel including police per 1,000 of population. The figure ranges from 18 to 35 depending on which version you wish to believe, that gives a median of 27, err on the side of caution and go with 20, any combination of either allies or host nation.
They need to do it, we just need to help.
a temp surge is a good thing
Face it a surge is simply a reinforcement in order to regain or recapture the momentum that was/is being lost to a "surge" re-SURGEnt opposing force. The ability for a commander in the field to call for and recieve local reinforcement is very improtant. The main issue will be the duration and the question that will linger-will more FORIEGN troops be needed. I believe the stated concept of the USMC reinforcement of the Afghan effort is clearly the right design. A MEU to reinfore the NATO combat effort and a BN reinforced to reinforce the training and assistance effort. These are smart moves. The timing is also right as it will reinforce prior to the warm weather and carry through the historically most dangerous months.
The bottomline, the US and NATO need to hold the line long enough and push back the Taliban enough to allow Afghan forces to train and equip to stand on their own. How long and at what cost are still to be determined. BUT a reinforcement to regain momentum and get the effort through a danger zone is a smart thing to do.
-T
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