Iran, Nukes, Diplomacy and other options (catch all thread 2007-2010)

[Sean Osborne]

Yup, political agendas tend to take center stage. However, I think what this does represent is yet another view (whether you and/or I ever agree with it), that we shouldn’t ignore it, and we definitely should at least be prepared for it, if the Democrats win this next election (God forbid).

We should be prepared like a Boy Scout is prepared.

I do agree that we should be back ‘there’ at ground zero in any form or function rather than being dependent upon other world organizations monitoring the situation, which will preclude more knee-jerk reactions and pathetic gaps in our ‘intelligence’.

We need covert HUMINT in almost every area of intelligence collection. As evidenced by the 2005 and 2007 NIE we desperately need covert HUMINT assets in Iran reporting on core capabilities. No more estimations, assessments, judgements or assumptions - just good solid intelligence data.

I still conclude that there's little evidence that makes me think Iran will ever be able to put a nuke in functioning order. They remind me of rich Africans.

My Intelligence Estimate

The Shah's "Surge" nuclear weapons program was progressing until the unfortunate Islamic revolution and Ayatollah Khomeini came along and halted it. Then after Khomeini died Rafsanjani resurrected the nuke program. Ahamadinejad gets elected in 2005 and the "Surge" is back on again - in Iran and in North Korea.

I conclude that Iran paid handsomely for and received priceless data they could not otherwise obtain from the North Korean nuclear program (Ballistic missile program as well). Iran received a half-dozen Kh-55 Granat's sans their 200kT warheads from the Ukraine with Russian assistance in 2001. The warheads are the missing components Iran is surging to complete.

With respect to the 2003 hiatus, (the Iranians assumed the US or Israel would learn of the halt) North Korea was the Iranian ace-in-the-hole. The payoff came with the North Korean nuclear test on October 9, 2006. Mission accomplished. The North Korean's then agree to dismantle their program, and have the dismantling paid for with foreign cash among other bonuses. This is of no concern to Iran - they have what they paid for. A year later North Korea gets caught red-handed in Syria. The US and Israel send a message to the Iranian's from deep in the Syrian desert. The Iranian's are surging ahead to process indigenous HEU for the warhead to put on their missiles. The have AQ Khan's Paki designs and North Korean test results. Ahamdinejad has a bigger mission ahead and a nuke or two is what he needs to create the conditions for his al-Mahdi to pop out of the well.