Quote Originally Posted by Sean Osborne View Post
Jeff,

These two sentences are mutually exclusive. Since Iran has not yet revealed detailed and verified as accurate data about its capability to produce HEU it cannot possibly be deduced as fact that Iran has old unreliable centrifuges.

We know Iran has P1 centerfuges that they acquired from Pakistan, and we know that P1 centerfuges break down frequently. What we don't know is how much HEU is being produced, however based on what we DO know about the P1's, and about their number, 3000, its unlikely that they're doing much with them.

Additionally, the Intelligence Community knows that AQ Khan proliferated/sold Iran detailed plans to produce second generation (P2) centrifuges - those P2 plans remain completely unaccounted for.

To the contrary of your statement above, Iran has minimally informed the IAEA that they were in the process testing P2 centrifuges and even has advanced designs in production for P3 centrifuges.
Iran claims a lot of things, and hyperbole is not in short supply in Tehran. Plans for a P2 is far removed from a functioning cascade. Very far removed.


Moreover, the covert Arak facility is reported to produce plutonium, not HEU.]
Iran's plutonium production has already been verified by the IAEA as peaceful. It's a closed issue.


Bottom line is: we know what we know, and we don't know what we don't know. Prudence suggests that we assume worst case.
No, that would be paranoia, not prudence. Prudence says wait for the facts to come in before launching an attack on WMDs that don't exist.