I'm the first to say (and I've said this to AF cadets in my classes) that the USAF has an awful record and predicting what kind of planes/missions we will need in the next war. B-52s are the most striking example. Purchased for the specific purpose of long range high altitude nuclear bombing they've never done any of that, but instead have more CAS experience under their belt than many other jets. However, while our own record is poor, the fact remains that since I've been in the AF (18 years) only the C-17 and the F-22s have succeeded in seeing an operational flight line. KC-135s, KC-10s, C-5s, F-15s, -16, A-10s, have been in service long before I showed up and will be asked to remain long after I'm gone. Ask the F-15 Air Guard pilot what its like to have your jet disintagrate during flight. http://www.kansascity.com/444/story/438454.html Fortunately for him, it was over Missouri and not Al Anbar. While serving in Germany in the mid-90s the old C-141s developed a similar structural problem (hair line wing cracks) that pulled some of them out of operations and restricted the rest in very meaningful ways. Load restrictions forced very expensive and inefficient practices of transporting stuff across the Atlantic ....but better that than search and recovery ops off the coast of Ireland.

When the senior Boeing guy colluded with the Senior AF procurement official to jack up the price on leasing tankers and got caught (only because McCain waved the BS flag on the price) it was another example of doing it to ourselves. The deal sank and now we're enjoying a new round of bidding. The KC-135s aren't getting any younger.

When a large frame jet, falls out of the sky, and its only a matter of time....they'll be an investigation and plenty of blame to go around. But unfortunately we can't avoid the cost of having to buy jets to replace the current 30 - 60 year old planes we currently fly while our maintenance and depot budgets are hemorrhaging. The AF recently cut 6000 manpower billets in order to fund new jets, but had to spend the money on current ops instead so it got us nowhere. Now the AF is the leader in developing synthetic fuel because the price of JP-8 is eating our lunch!

I understand the Army's current stress is bad and perhaps strategically debilitating, but the AF is breaking too. But instead of the stress of combat rotations, it is largely due to things within Congressional and AF control, only exacerbated by the "war time footing" the USAF has been on since 1990. That is making it very frustrating for those in charge now like Wynne and Gen Moseley who have to try to fix it.

Bottom line is we won't know what force we'll need for the next war as our track record on predicting that is a part of the problem manifesting itself now in the AF. Realizing that, we have to have a good mix of capabilities and even me (an AF guy who loves studying small wars) has to advocate for fast movers, efficient air lifters, effective bombers, and other things.

The Air Force is guilty of corruption (the tanker lease debacle) and poor planning in the past. And yes over hyping things, but that doesn't change the very real need to buy new jets. And as for faking F-15 problems in order to have an excuse to buy new planes.... well I'll let that slide as it surely is headed for the conspiracy theorist hall of fame.