Quote Originally Posted by TROUFION View Post
[Why isn't a nonfunctional national government the center of gravity? /QUOTE MattC86]

Security has to come first, though it is kind of a chicken and egg issue. Without security you cannot have a stable government; without a stable government it is difficult to train, equip and manage a professional security force. The one thing that makes establishing security first work is the US Military presence. Therefor the establishment of security and a stand alone security apparatus with the legs of financing and logisitics is the most important step. The government can be shaky and come along later, government particularly of the democratic style, will be a work in progress for years to come. Security can be (and must be for success) established now and maintained while the government develops.

There are many pitfalls in this evolution, the desire for security has driven many states into the hands of dictators. There are far more Napoleons than there are Washingtons.

_T
Good points. I in no way dismiss the importance of the security situation. Obviously it's the first goal.

But I think the last months have shown that the stable, functional, and legitimate government issue is rooted in more than a security problem. US troops have helped foster a new, more secure environment, yet much of the work done to accomplish that (CLC groups, arming the Sunnis, etc.) has actually destabilized and delegitimized the national government. With that fragmentation at the national level (important success at the local and provincial levels notwithstanding for the time being), two problems arise with the security forces:

1 - the corruption and the ethnic and regional fragmentation will continue to degrade the effectiveness of ISF; and, perhaps more importantly,

2 - If somehow the ISF do become a stable force, if they are the arm of a weak, divided state, they seem likely to be the source of a military takeover. Or, they could just fissure into US-armed and trained private militias for a general power struggle.

So, in the overall foreign-policy strategy of the United States, the stability and legitimacy of the Iraqi government is the problem. But I agree, as far as the US military can influence the situation, the security issue is the center of gravity.

Need to get my terms right.

Matt