2003 what if

[redbullets]

Attacking through Turkey would have made little difference. Our problems in Iraq were/are not rooted in the axes used during the kinetic/manuever phase. The Iraqi security forces still would have been disbanded/ignored, the tribal leaders still would have been marginalized, the water and electricity still would not have been turned back on, and we still would have reached a point where we faced insurgent momentum with too few boots on the ground.

The PKK have rarely been so foolish as to attack US forces or USG elements. IMO, they would not have started doing so with a division rolling through their front yard. Besides, there are segments of the Turkish military-industrial complex that benefit from the continued existence of the PKK, in the vacuum created by the demise of the Cold War.

Cheers,

[Ken White]

Attacking through Turkey would have made little difference...

The tangential effect of Turkey allowing that would have made a political difference on several counts; the presence of the 4th in the north would have meant that 3d ID was not going to be moved out immediately and thus might have made a difference in the post attack operations and conduct of the 3d ID. Plus another Div available is another Div available.

Still, no way for either of us to know for sure, didn't happen.

... Our problems in Iraq were/are not rooted in the axes used during the kinetic/manuever phase. The Iraqi security forces still would have been disbanded/ignored, the tribal leaders still would have been marginalized, the water and electricity still would not have been turned back on, and we still would have reached a point where we faced insurgent momentum with too few boots on the ground.

Agree in part, our major screwups. Pre attack lack of intel allowed Saddam to plan for the post attack phase far better than we knew -- even though he literally told us what he was going to do. That followed by poor training and planning for the post attack phase allowed an insurgency that could have been contained far more easily had we not disbanded the Army and Police, a move that effectively tripled or quadrupled the insurgency factor.

There are enough screwups to cover a lot of folks. Had there been fewer errors, mostly by the Army, there probably would have been enough troops to do the job. Again, no way to know, that's not the way it played out.