2007 murder of Benazir Bhutto (new title)

[Jedburgh]

The Economist, 3 Jan 08: Pakistan: A Country on the Brink

....It is Pakistan's particular misfortune that its progress tends to be measured against exaggerated doomsday prophecies. Three are most popular. The first, which is as old as Pakistan itself, decrees that the place will fragment (history is not encouraging: born of partition in 1947, the country lost its eastern component in 1971). The other two are more recent. One is that Pakistan, like neighbouring Iran, will fall to Islamists—perhaps even of Mr Mehsud's vicious kind. A related fear is that terrorists will get hold of the country's nuclear arsenal. All three nightmares are very unlikely in the short term, but may be increasingly possible.

To be clear, Pakistan is bitterly divided. Punjab dominates the economy and the army. In other parts of the country military rule—which Pakistanis have known for over half their history—is considered Punjabi rule. Every decade or so, in Sindh, Baluchistan and North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), Punjabi troops are dispatched to quash an insurgency. The army is currently attempting this task in both Baluchistan and NWFP, on several fronts. NWFP has always been so rebellious that no Pakistani government has dared to call it by its logical name, Pushtunistan, for fear of rallying the Pushtun tribesmen who live there. But the army is still quite strong enough to prevent any chunk of Pakistan from splitting off.

The other prophecies are more sobering—given the current security crisis on the Afghan frontier, and a history of institutional Islamism within the army itself. The American-backed campaign in north-western Pakistan has gone badly. It has almost certainly spawned much more radicalism and terror than it has ended. Baker Atyani, head of the al-Arabiya television office in Islamabad, says he receives two or three videotapes every week from local and foreign jihadist groups along the frontier—many more than he can broadcast. Clearly, Pakistan has a long-term problem with militancy. And the prevalence of jihadist sympathies within the army also remains a concern. For whatever reason, many soldiers on the frontier are demoralised: at least several hundred have surrendered to untrained bandits. Nonetheless, despite these concerns, a strong majority of Pakistanis remain moderate.....

[davidbfpo]

Been off-line for three days and have picked up that Pakistan has accepted an offer from the UK, for the Metropolitan Police to assist the investigation. The Met often get such calls, in terrorism and other cases. One piece of BBC film footage showed the actual scene had been washed clean, with a firehose, which led President Musharraf to comment it was not what he had ordered.

Scene management is one of the standard investigation tactics, which the Met has great experience of - so that is probably lost. Second comes acquiring all possible still & video footage (including un-broadcast) and that will take time. The comes interviewing all possible witnesses, preferably id'd at the time by those attending the scene - unlikely I fear.

The UK has just upgraded the post of a CTLO in Islamabad (Counter-Terrorist Liasion Officer), one hopes his advice has already been given to the Pakistani authorities and he is ex-Met.

From this armchair a very long uphill struggle and then there's the politics!

davidbfpo