Pakistan, a nuclear-armed, predominantly Muslim nation of 165 million, has experienced a dramatic rise in political turmoil and violence in the last year. Following the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on December 27, 2007, analysts have raised serious concerns about Pakistan's stability and the possibility of a collapse of the federation.
With elections scheduled for February 18, 2008, amidst political turmoil, a succession of suicide bombings in major cities, and open warfare between state security forces and Islamist militants in the tribal areas, further shocks to the system could ignite broader conflict in Pakistan. The nation must overcome a confluence of serious challenges in the coming months to move back toward stability, including: holding legitimate national elections and restoring democratic rule; confronting the increasing power of militant Islamist groups; and assuaging widespread minority grievances fueling separatist movements.
How many more shocks to the system can Pakistan bear? Does the situation in Pakistan indeed "pose a potential threat to the federation of Pakistan"? What are the dangers of schisms within the military and security forces, and the implications for state integrity and nuclear security? As turmoil continues, is consolidation of militant control over the border areas with Afghanistan inevitable? What is the likely impact on Afghan stability? A group of veteran Pakistan watchers and policymakers gathered at USIP on January 14, 2008, to discuss the potential for worsening conflict in Pakistan, and the prospects for stability. Participants included: General David Barno (Ret.), Lisa Curtis,
Christine Fair, Col. John Gill (Ret.),
Qamar-ul Huda, Minister Ali Jalali, Daniel Markey,
Barmak Pazhwak, Bruce Riedel, Larry Robinson, Ambassador Howard Schaffer, Col. David Smith, and Marvin Weinbaum. The views presented in this report do not necessarily represent the views of these participants.....
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