Quote Originally Posted by tequila View Post
Your IR professor is and was very wrong.

Many key players and how they react will be tested here. How does Musharraf react, and are elections postponed? How does the PPP reorganize itself and who will be its new leader with no clear Bhutto clan figure ready to take the reins? Will the PPP blame Musharraf and the military?

If it comes down to a real confrontation between an enraged PPP and the military, things could get very messy. But I think in the long run that the PPP will end up breaking apart much as the PML has done, with a significant wing coopted by the military.
Well, in fairness to him, I appropriated his quote to an event that was not quite what he had in mind. I think he meant more along the lines of an assassination of Musharraf or a similar reigning figure, not Bhutto. My fault for misusing his maxim more than him being wrong, I think.

The PPP is already blaming the military and Musharraf for not protecting the rally well enough, according to NPR. I can't imagine they were complicit as an organization, but I certainly am not the expert.

You're right on the big question of what happens to the PPP, I think. My allusion to the Hariri assassination and the galvanization of the population is the big wild card, because then I think you might see the confrontation you were talking about.

But it's too early and I don't know enough to tell. Appreciate the corrections, however.

Matt