2007 murder of Benazir Bhutto (new title)

[MattC86]

On CNN, while they were waiting for Amanpour to deploy to Pakistan with her trademarked "sympathy face," they talked to their Pentagon reporter, who said that the Pentagon was minimally staffed this week, but as the flash came in, calls went out and lots of people were on their way back.

I remember my IR professor telling us that Pakistan was one assassination away from being an extremist Islamic state with nuclear weapons. Here's hoping this wasn't that assassination.

It's going to be interesting and frightening to see how the aftermath plays out; particularly if there's a general population demonstration, along the lines of the aftermath of the Rafik Hariri assassination in Lebanon in 2005. My own bet is not, because there is no outside threat (a la Syria in the Hariri case) to galvanize solidarity among the population, but we shall see.

Matt

[tequila]

I remember my IR professor telling us that Pakistan was one assassination away from being an extremist Islamic state with nuclear weapons. Here's hoping this wasn't that assassination.

Your IR professor is and was very wrong.

Many key players and how they react will be tested here. How does Musharraf react, and are elections postponed? How does the PPP reorganize itself and who will be its new leader with no clear Bhutto clan figure ready to take the reins? Will the PPP blame Musharraf and the military?

If it comes down to a real confrontation between an enraged PPP and the military, things could get very messy. But I think in the long run that the PPP will end up breaking apart much as the PML has done, with a significant wing coopted by the military.

[jcustis]

Your IR professor is and was very wrong.

Many key players and how they react will be tested here. How does Musharraf react, and are elections postponed? How does the PPP reorganize itself and who will be its new leader with no clear Bhutto clan figure ready to take the reins? Will the PPP blame Musharraf and the military?

If it comes down to a real confrontation between an enraged PPP and the military, things could get very messy. But I think in the long run that the PPP will end up breaking apart much as the PML has done, with a significant wing coopted by the military.

either way, this is really bad on a number of fronts. Hopefulle davidfpo will be able to chime in with commentary and thoughts.

[Steve Blair]

either way, this is really bad on a number of fronts. Hopefulle davidfpo will be able to chime in with commentary and thoughts.

Quite agree. Clearly not the development that Pakistan needs at this juncture.

[MattC86]

Your IR professor is and was very wrong.

Many key players and how they react will be tested here. How does Musharraf react, and are elections postponed? How does the PPP reorganize itself and who will be its new leader with no clear Bhutto clan figure ready to take the reins? Will the PPP blame Musharraf and the military?

If it comes down to a real confrontation between an enraged PPP and the military, things could get very messy. But I think in the long run that the PPP will end up breaking apart much as the PML has done, with a significant wing coopted by the military.

Well, in fairness to him, I appropriated his quote to an event that was not quite what he had in mind. I think he meant more along the lines of an assassination of Musharraf or a similar reigning figure, not Bhutto. My fault for misusing his maxim more than him being wrong, I think.

The PPP is already blaming the military and Musharraf for not protecting the rally well enough, according to NPR. I can't imagine they were complicit as an organization, but I certainly am not the expert.

You're right on the big question of what happens to the PPP, I think. My allusion to the Hariri assassination and the galvanization of the population is the big wild card, because then I think you might see the confrontation you were talking about.

But it's too early and I don't know enough to tell. Appreciate the corrections, however.

Matt

[SSG Rock]

Anyone remember a little place called Sarajevo? Similarities? Or am I just over reacting?

Key players will indeed be tested, let us hope cool heads prevail though I rather doubt that based on recent history. Key players indeed, and they are all right there in such close proximity. Once the fuse is lit, I'm afraid it will be extremely difficult to put it out.

[Stan]

Anyone remember a little place called Sarajevo? Similarities? Or am I just over reacting?

Key players will indeed be tested, let us hope cool heads prevail though I rather doubt that based on recent history. Key players indeed, and they are all right there in such close proximity. Once the fuse is lit, I'm afraid it will be extremely difficult to put it out.

You're not overreacting; there's too many recent examples to (that we have yet to) learn from. Civil war comes immediately to mind.

[yazzington]

Protection of Nukes comes to my mind. And according to jihadwatch.org she was shot first then the killer blew himself up to hide evidence.

http://jihadwatch.org/

US SF are suppose to go in and help President Pervez Musharraf. I don't care, just whatever it takes to secure them nukes.

[redbullets]

I'm clueless when it comes to Pakistani politics, but my closest colleague would qualify as an expert in most people's books. He lived there for many years, and is married to the daughter of the (now deceased) founder of the Pakistani Special Services Group (SSG). Despite what would seem to be privaleged status among the Pakistani security elite, my colleague's family-by-marriage has been active and visible in opposing the extremes of the Musharaf regime.

He and his wife have told me for many years that Bhutto was widely hated in Pakistan, by a majority of the population, because of the visible extent of the corruption that existed under her regime. She easily beat out Sharif when comparing hands in cookie jars. Her husband is still under threat in some quarters for his violent extortion of land from poor land holders. She was warned about the trundling along of her convoy upon return to the country by the security services, and the prevailing view among my colleague and his friends and family is that she viewed those killed as means to an end, simply fodder, especially since so many of them were members of the same security services that warned her about the foolishness of the parade.

Having heard my colleague's views of Bhutto for the past decade, it is interesting to me that there is, and has been so little digging into her misdeads by western media sources. I remember some soft-sell 60 Minutes piece quite a few years ago that made me a believer, until I received several doses of reality from my colleague. I think to a large degree we bamboozled ourselves because Bhutto was a Harvard-educated woman, and the collective US consiousness couldn't quite fathom that she was just another corrupt dictator.

I'm not suggesting any abandonment of realpolitik. Just think its better served by Musharaf, and hopefully this will subside despite the handwringing of our media folks.

Cheers,