2007 murder of Benazir Bhutto (new title)

[SWJED]

CNN - RAWALPINDI, Pakistan (CNN) -- Pakistan former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has died after a suicide bombing that killed at least 14 of her supporters, ex-government spokesman Tariq Azim Khan and Pakistan's primary television networks said.

Bhutto suffered bullet wounds in the aftermath of the bomb attack, TV networks report.

Video of the scene just moments before the explosion showed Bhutto stepping into a heavily-guarded vehicle to leave the rally.

Khan said while it appeared Bhutto was shot, it was unclear if her bullet wounds were caused by a shooting or shrapnel from the bomb.

The suicide attack left at least 14 dead and 40 injured, Khan told CNN in a telephone interview.

The attacker is said to have detonated a bomb as he tried to enter the rally where thousands of people gathered to hear Bhutto speak, police said.

[MattC86]

On CNN, while they were waiting for Amanpour to deploy to Pakistan with her trademarked "sympathy face," they talked to their Pentagon reporter, who said that the Pentagon was minimally staffed this week, but as the flash came in, calls went out and lots of people were on their way back.

I remember my IR professor telling us that Pakistan was one assassination away from being an extremist Islamic state with nuclear weapons. Here's hoping this wasn't that assassination.

It's going to be interesting and frightening to see how the aftermath plays out; particularly if there's a general population demonstration, along the lines of the aftermath of the Rafik Hariri assassination in Lebanon in 2005. My own bet is not, because there is no outside threat (a la Syria in the Hariri case) to galvanize solidarity among the population, but we shall see.

Matt

[tequila]

I remember my IR professor telling us that Pakistan was one assassination away from being an extremist Islamic state with nuclear weapons. Here's hoping this wasn't that assassination.

Your IR professor is and was very wrong.

Many key players and how they react will be tested here. How does Musharraf react, and are elections postponed? How does the PPP reorganize itself and who will be its new leader with no clear Bhutto clan figure ready to take the reins? Will the PPP blame Musharraf and the military?

If it comes down to a real confrontation between an enraged PPP and the military, things could get very messy. But I think in the long run that the PPP will end up breaking apart much as the PML has done, with a significant wing coopted by the military.

[jcustis]

Your IR professor is and was very wrong.

Many key players and how they react will be tested here. How does Musharraf react, and are elections postponed? How does the PPP reorganize itself and who will be its new leader with no clear Bhutto clan figure ready to take the reins? Will the PPP blame Musharraf and the military?

If it comes down to a real confrontation between an enraged PPP and the military, things could get very messy. But I think in the long run that the PPP will end up breaking apart much as the PML has done, with a significant wing coopted by the military.

either way, this is really bad on a number of fronts. Hopefulle davidfpo will be able to chime in with commentary and thoughts.

[Steve Blair]

either way, this is really bad on a number of fronts. Hopefulle davidfpo will be able to chime in with commentary and thoughts.

Quite agree. Clearly not the development that Pakistan needs at this juncture.

[MattC86]

Your IR professor is and was very wrong.

Many key players and how they react will be tested here. How does Musharraf react, and are elections postponed? How does the PPP reorganize itself and who will be its new leader with no clear Bhutto clan figure ready to take the reins? Will the PPP blame Musharraf and the military?

If it comes down to a real confrontation between an enraged PPP and the military, things could get very messy. But I think in the long run that the PPP will end up breaking apart much as the PML has done, with a significant wing coopted by the military.

Well, in fairness to him, I appropriated his quote to an event that was not quite what he had in mind. I think he meant more along the lines of an assassination of Musharraf or a similar reigning figure, not Bhutto. My fault for misusing his maxim more than him being wrong, I think.

The PPP is already blaming the military and Musharraf for not protecting the rally well enough, according to NPR. I can't imagine they were complicit as an organization, but I certainly am not the expert.

You're right on the big question of what happens to the PPP, I think. My allusion to the Hariri assassination and the galvanization of the population is the big wild card, because then I think you might see the confrontation you were talking about.

But it's too early and I don't know enough to tell. Appreciate the corrections, however.

Matt

[SSG Rock]

Anyone remember a little place called Sarajevo? Similarities? Or am I just over reacting?

Key players will indeed be tested, let us hope cool heads prevail though I rather doubt that based on recent history. Key players indeed, and they are all right there in such close proximity. Once the fuse is lit, I'm afraid it will be extremely difficult to put it out.

[Stan]

Anyone remember a little place called Sarajevo? Similarities? Or am I just over reacting?

Key players will indeed be tested, let us hope cool heads prevail though I rather doubt that based on recent history. Key players indeed, and they are all right there in such close proximity. Once the fuse is lit, I'm afraid it will be extremely difficult to put it out.

You're not overreacting; there's too many recent examples to (that we have yet to) learn from. Civil war comes immediately to mind.

[davidbfpo]

The Sunday Times (London) under the title 'Scotland Yard believes Al-Qaeda assassinated Benazir Bhutto' is an odd story reporting Scotland Yard have provided Pakistan with an initial report on Ms Bhutto's murder:

Link: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle3177691.ece

I note the Bhutto family and the PPP reject this report and still advocate a UN investigation. Just a little too much "spin" at play here.

davidbfpo

[Jedburgh]

USIP, 1 Feb 08: A Toxic Cocktail: Pakistan's Growing Instability

Pakistan, a nuclear-armed, predominantly Muslim nation of 165 million, has experienced a dramatic rise in political turmoil and violence in the last year. Following the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on December 27, 2007, analysts have raised serious concerns about Pakistan's stability and the possibility of a collapse of the federation.

With elections scheduled for February 18, 2008, amidst political turmoil, a succession of suicide bombings in major cities, and open warfare between state security forces and Islamist militants in the tribal areas, further shocks to the system could ignite broader conflict in Pakistan. The nation must overcome a confluence of serious challenges in the coming months to move back toward stability, including: holding legitimate national elections and restoring democratic rule; confronting the increasing power of militant Islamist groups; and assuaging widespread minority grievances fueling separatist movements.

How many more shocks to the system can Pakistan bear? Does the situation in Pakistan indeed "pose a potential threat to the federation of Pakistan"? What are the dangers of schisms within the military and security forces, and the implications for state integrity and nuclear security? As turmoil continues, is consolidation of militant control over the border areas with Afghanistan inevitable? What is the likely impact on Afghan stability? A group of veteran Pakistan watchers and policymakers gathered at USIP on January 14, 2008, to discuss the potential for worsening conflict in Pakistan, and the prospects for stability. Participants included: General David Barno (Ret.), Lisa Curtis, Christine Fair, Col. John Gill (Ret.), Qamar-ul Huda, Minister Ali Jalali, Daniel Markey, Barmak Pazhwak, Bruce Riedel, Larry Robinson, Ambassador Howard Schaffer, Col. David Smith, and Marvin Weinbaum. The views presented in this report do not necessarily represent the views of these participants.....

[davidbfpo]

Tried the link and by going to USIP website - does not work. The links to the authors do. Perhaps too many are reading it?

davidbfpo

[Stan]

GARHI KHUDA BAKHSH, Pakistan (AFP) — Pakistani officials said they arrested two "terrorists" Thursday over the slaying of Benazir Bhutto...

With pressure growing on the government to solve her murder, investigators said they had seized two "very important alleged terrorists" in Rawalpindi on Thursday morning in connection with the attack.

A statement by a Pakistani investigation team probing the attack said it had "arrested two very important alleged terrorists, Hasnain and Rafaqat, this morning from Rawalpindi with the help of Rawalpindi police."

"They are being interrogated," it added.

Both men had "tentacles from the tribal region and Baitullah Mehsud," a senior security official said, referring to an Al-Qaeda-linked militant commander based in the restive border region of South Waziristan.

Last month police arrested a 15-year-old boy who allegedly confessed to being part of a back-up squad of suicide bombers tasked by Mehsud to target Bhutto if the initial attack failed.

Thursday's arrests also coincided with the return to Pakistan of a Scotland Yard team invited by President Pervez Musharraf to help probe Bhutto's murder, although officials said there was no link with the new arrests.

The British detectives are due to present their report on the killing to the Pakistani government on Friday.

[Jedburgh]

British High Commission Press Release, 8 Feb 08:

Scotland Yard Report Into Assassination of Benazir Bhutto Released

In his report Dr Cary states:

• “the only tenable cause for the rapidly fatal head injury in this case is that it occurred as the result of impact due to the effects of the bomb-blast.”

• “in my opinion Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto died as a result of a severe head injury sustained as a consequence of the bomb-blast and due to head impact somewhere in the escape hatch of the vehicle.”

Given the severity of the injury to Ms Bhutto’s head, the prospect that she inadvertently hit her head whilst ducking down into the vehicle can be excluded as a reasonable possibility.

High explosives of the type typically used in this sort of device, detonate at a velocity between 6000 and 9000 metres per second. This means that when considering the explosive quantities and distances involved, such an explosion would generate significantly more force than would be necessary to provoke the consequences as occurred in this case......

and:

There has been speculation that two individuals were directly involved in the attack. The suggestion has been that one suspect fired shots, and a second detonated the bomb. All the available evidence points toward the person who fired shots and the person who detonated the explosives being one and the same person.

• Body parts from only one individual remain unidentified. Expert opinion provides strong evidence that they originate from the suicide bomber.

• Analysis of the media footage places the gunman at the rear of the vehicle and looking down immediately before the explosion. The footage does not show the presence of any other potential bomber.

• This footage when considered alongside the findings of the forensic explosive expert, that the bombing suspect was within 1 to 2 metres of the vehicle towards it rear and with no person or other obstruction between him and the vehicle, strongly suggests that the bomber and gunman were at the same position. It is virtually inconceivable that anyone who was where the gunman can clearly be seen on the media footage, could have survived the blast and escaped.

The inevitable conclusion is that there was one attacker in the immediate vicinity of the vehicle in which Ms Bhutto was travelling.

[davidbfpo]

An in-depth article by Owen Bennett-Jones, ex BBC World Service and now at an American university, in 'The London Review of Books':http://www.lrb.co.uk/v34/n23/owen-be...benazir-bhutto

It has everything you'd ever want in a straight forward, simple TV crime documentary. No, it does not. Owen draws together a complex, bewildering set of facts, the weirdness - to outsiders - of Pakistani politics, the "dark arts" of power and violence. Plus that favourite device, the revolving door of being in state custody; not to overlook fire hoses. One hell of a read.

His last phrase is an indictment not only of the Pakistani state, its politicians and those who watch with a Nelson eye:

there isn’t the slightest reason to believe that the people who tasked the Taliban with Bhutto’s murder will ever face justice.

No wonder the millions of good people in Pakistan stay silent.

There is a historical thread on Ms Bhutto's murder, for those who need some background reading:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=4601

[davidbfpo]

A new book by the Chilean UN official who headed an investigative commission in Ms Bhutto's death is out. In a Foreign Policy article, based on the book, the author ends with:

...most Pakistani political actors would rather turn the page than continue investigating who was behind her assassination. Probably no government or court of law will be able or willing to fully disentangle the whole truth from that web. It may well be that Bhutto’s assassination will be another unsolved case in the long history of impunity in Pakistan, and that the controversy surrounding her assassination will endure as much as her memory.

Link to article:http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...rder?page=show

Now of course there are the headlines 'Musharraf indicted for murder of Benazir Bhutto':http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-23763895

[davidbfpo]

Yes today marks the tenth anniversary of her murder and Owen Bennett-Jones, a veteran BBC reporter, for a long time in Pakistan, returns to the story with an excellent explanation IMHO:

Benazir Bhutto was the first woman to lead a Muslim country. The decade since an assassin killed her has revealed more about how Pakistan works than it has about who actually ordered her death.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42409374

[davidbfpo]

Owen Bennett-Jones has a series of nine podcasts on the murder of Benazir Bhutto and the aftermath. I am listening to 'The other dead', which is No.9, it is 29 minutes long and refers to the deaths of so many who were involved afterwards.
Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p05...odes/downloads

He is an excellent reporter and knows Pakistan very well.