Assessing Al-Qaeda (merged thread)

[Bill Moore]

I think the AQ's evolving strategy, to include the associated two-arm strategy is showing a level of strategic maturity not seen before. I know there are many who think AQ can't establish a presence in India, but I think that is wishful thinking. India has more people living in abject poverty than all of Africa, and much of its large Muslim population lives in poverty and has a history of being discriminated against. Islamic terrorist events happen in India periodically already, so it is probable AQ will enjoy some success, how much depends on a lot of factors.

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Libra...ail/?id=184986

Al Qaeda's "Resurgence" Focuses on Indian Subcontinent

AQ's new magazine is released, and it principally focuses on South Asia.

The reasons for the delay in its release are not publicly known. At 117 pages, the magazine covers a variety of jihadist topics. But the content of the magazine is heavily focused on recent events, especially al Qaeda's activities in the Indian Subcontinent.

It was produced by As Sahab, al Qaeda's propaganda arm. However, "(Subcontinent)", has been appended to As Sahab's name, suggesting that the media wing has rebranded at least part of its operation to focus on the region.

Al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri and other senior jihadists announced the creation of al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), al Qaeda's newest regional branch, in early September. Much of "Resurgence" is devoted to AQIS propaganda.

It also addresses economic targeting, and demonstrates knowledge of the impact of insurance costs on commercial shipping if the perception of the threat rises.

there is an "energy umbilical cord which [sic] sustains western economies" and "stretches across hundreds of miles of pipelines and sea lanes." This "represents the Achilles heel not just of the energy market, but also of western economies dependent on oil from the Muslim world."

Khalid argues that a strategy of "sustained disruption in this supply system would not only increase insurance costs for international shipping, but also affect the price of oil globally, making the theft of our petroleum resources an expensive venture for the West." Khalid then delves into an in-depth assessment of various "choke points," explaining the relative virtues of striking them.

Khalid believes that the time is coming for a sustained campaign of "economic warfare

They have been doing their homework, and for those that study strategy they'll see some familiar themes from the Cold War, but updated for current conditions. I suspect we'll start seeing something along the lines of "unrestricted warfare" from non-state groups who will operate not only in the human domain, but the cyber, maritime, and with UAVs in the air domains.

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2014/...ref=world&_r=0

Officials Fear Al Qaeda Grooming Indian Militants for Big Attacks

But Indian security agencies said evidence they had gathered pointed to growing ties between al Qaeda and IM, a home-grown movement hitherto known for low-level attacks on local targets using relatively crude weapons like pressure cooker bombs.

Weeks after al Qaeda announced the formation of a South Asia wing to strike across the subcontinent, agencies said they had discovered IM members were training with al Qaeda and other groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan for major attacks.