Assessing Al-Qaeda (merged thread)

[TheCurmudgeon]

They are, as you said, the ones who are defining this as a religious conflict, as I said. They are the people with the weapons and the organization. So that makes them dangerous. What you believe the majority of Sunnis believe makes no difference at all even if they do believe as you think because the ones who matter are the ones with the weapons and the organization. They have not attended some secret conference somewhere and all agreed to pretend that they are motivated by religion just to recruit and motivate the foot killers. They don't fool themselves. They motivate their rank and file with the same thing that motivates them, religion.

As you said, but seem to refuse to acknowledge, the conflict is religious. They defined it such. We have to believe that they have done so in order to combat it. You gotta know the kind of fight the other guy has put you in even if you didn't want to be put into it.

Carl,

What do you think it is about this religion that motivates them?

[carl]

Carl,

What do you think it is about this religion that motivates them?

I don't know. It is probably more useful to say what is it about religion rather than to speak about "this religion". If you go that track it still doesn't really matter about the details of belief and religion's place in the human heart. It matters that religion can be used as the reason to kill, conquer, rape and steal. It hasn't been widely fashionable lately but it is making a comeback in a big way.

[davidbfpo]

A short review by Professor Bruce Hoffman:http://news.siteintelgroup.com/blog/...-the-caliphate

Starts with:

Once again, the conventional wisdom in Washington about al-Qaeda (AQ) and the broader jihadi terrorist threat has been proven wrong. The wishful thinking passing for analysis since the beginning of the year that the split within the movement resulting in the expulsion of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) from the AQ fold would simultaneously weaken both Core AQ and ISIS—now pretentiously re-named the Islamic State (IS)—has been dramatically disproven by the latter's lightning thrust into Iraq and seizure of the northern and western parts of the war-torn country.

[Bill Moore]

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...ranc-print.php

As Sahab, al Qaeda's official media outlet, released a lengthy video promoting the creation of al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent today. The video, which was published on various Internet video sites, including YouTube, features Ayman al Zawahiri as well as Asim Umar, the new emir of al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and Usama Mahmoud, the group's spokesman. The video was translated by the SITE Intelligence group.

"A new branch of al-Qaeda was established and is Qaedat al-Jihad in the Indian Subcontinent, seeking to raise the flag of jihad, return the Islamic rule, and empowering the Shariah of Allah across the Indian subcontinent," Zawahiri says in the opening of the video, according to the translation by SITE.

Business should be good for this franchise since it is focused on of the most densely populated areas in the world with a wide spectrum of social and political issues, and questionable security forces.

Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh will need to cooperate at unprecedented levels to cut out this cancer before it metastasizes.

[Bill Moore]

I think the AQ's evolving strategy, to include the associated two-arm strategy is showing a level of strategic maturity not seen before. I know there are many who think AQ can't establish a presence in India, but I think that is wishful thinking. India has more people living in abject poverty than all of Africa, and much of its large Muslim population lives in poverty and has a history of being discriminated against. Islamic terrorist events happen in India periodically already, so it is probable AQ will enjoy some success, how much depends on a lot of factors.

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/Digital-Libra...ail/?id=184986

Al Qaeda's "Resurgence" Focuses on Indian Subcontinent

AQ's new magazine is released, and it principally focuses on South Asia.

The reasons for the delay in its release are not publicly known. At 117 pages, the magazine covers a variety of jihadist topics. But the content of the magazine is heavily focused on recent events, especially al Qaeda's activities in the Indian Subcontinent.

It was produced by As Sahab, al Qaeda's propaganda arm. However, "(Subcontinent)", has been appended to As Sahab's name, suggesting that the media wing has rebranded at least part of its operation to focus on the region.

Al Qaeda emir Ayman al Zawahiri and other senior jihadists announced the creation of al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), al Qaeda's newest regional branch, in early September. Much of "Resurgence" is devoted to AQIS propaganda.

It also addresses economic targeting, and demonstrates knowledge of the impact of insurance costs on commercial shipping if the perception of the threat rises.

there is an "energy umbilical cord which [sic] sustains western economies" and "stretches across hundreds of miles of pipelines and sea lanes." This "represents the Achilles heel not just of the energy market, but also of western economies dependent on oil from the Muslim world."

Khalid argues that a strategy of "sustained disruption in this supply system would not only increase insurance costs for international shipping, but also affect the price of oil globally, making the theft of our petroleum resources an expensive venture for the West." Khalid then delves into an in-depth assessment of various "choke points," explaining the relative virtues of striking them.

Khalid believes that the time is coming for a sustained campaign of "economic warfare

They have been doing their homework, and for those that study strategy they'll see some familiar themes from the Cold War, but updated for current conditions. I suspect we'll start seeing something along the lines of "unrestricted warfare" from non-state groups who will operate not only in the human domain, but the cyber, maritime, and with UAVs in the air domains.

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2014/...ref=world&_r=0

Officials Fear Al Qaeda Grooming Indian Militants for Big Attacks

But Indian security agencies said evidence they had gathered pointed to growing ties between al Qaeda and IM, a home-grown movement hitherto known for low-level attacks on local targets using relatively crude weapons like pressure cooker bombs.

Weeks after al Qaeda announced the formation of a South Asia wing to strike across the subcontinent, agencies said they had discovered IM members were training with al Qaeda and other groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan for major attacks.

[davidbfpo]

Bill,

In response and citing only one section:

I know there are many who think AQ can't establish a presence in India, but I think that is wishful thinking. India has more people living in abject poverty than all of Africa, and much of its large Muslim population lives in poverty and has a history of being discriminated against. Islamic terrorist events happen in India periodically already, so it is probable AQ will enjoy some success, how much depends on a lot of factors.

It is interesting that AQ has to date been unable to have a presence in India, even though the jihadist cause has some adherents and can launch effective attacks (I exclude Mumbai as being an external operation).

From a global perspective it is important that the jihadist cause fails in India. Elsewhere there are posts, if not threads, debating whether AQ plus gains most where there are poor Muslims discriminated against.

[davidbfpo]

There is a new (forthcoming?) book that may assist readers: 'The Evolution of the Global Terrorist Threat: From 9/11 to Osama bin Laden's Death', which is part of the Columbia Studies in Terrorism and Irregular Warfare. The editors are Bruce Hoffman (from Georgetown Uni) and (Spainiard) Fernando Reinares:http://www.amazon.com/The-Evolution-...283155&s=books

No reader reviews yet, although comments by SME like Peter Bergen.

There is a very short review here. I note Hoffman now says the 7/7 attacks were not an independently launched attack; Fernando has in the past upset officials by saying the Madrid railway station bombings were directed by AQ.

Link:http://www.publishersweekly.com/978-...-0-231-16898-4