Assessing Al-Qaeda (merged thread)

[Bill Moore]

In many locations where there are conflicts a reasonable change in governance would do much to alleviate the hostility. In the deeply divided country of Iraq political changes are a must for any chance of progress. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I see little reason to believe there can be a one Iraq solution, and instead we'll see a formal or informal division of Iraq into at least three ethnic enclaves. Even if that happens it won't appease IS I who desire to impose a caliphate throughout the entire region based on their interpretation of Islam. That problem is very much a military problem unless the majority will peacefully accept their rule, which isn't possible. At this point in our discussion I think there are political aspects for the Iraq problems that need to be addressed, and if they're not any military action will only achieve short term effects, but at the end of the day military action will be needed against the IS I.

[Bob's World]

Carl,

Who are "They"?

You are right that "they" in charge of ISIS, ISIL, Muslim Brotherhood, AQ, etc. choose to define the conflict in religious terms. As I have often said, this is the smartest and most effective way to recruit citizens to serve as guerrillas, as an underground, and as an auxiliary (in US doctrinal terms) in support of their agenda. But even those three broad groupings of the population only make up a small portion of Sunni populations of the greater Middle East and the entire planet writ large.

I suspect the majority of Sunni believe strongly that the governance they live under must change; but that a much smaller percentage believe they must act out illegally to effect that change; and a much smaller percentage still that believe that the future governance they should replace their current governance with is that extreme Islamist version is espoused by the "they" you seem so concerned about. The much larger "they" simply want fair opportunity, justice under the law, and reasonably evolved rights more in tune with the environment of the current day.

The Sunni revolutionary insurgencies are in full swing and will continue to play out. The most likely (and best, IMO) outcome in Syria and Iraq is a fragmentation into new states defined much more by common culture and heritage than by the desires and interests of Western imperialists.

It looks to me that the leadership of the Gulf States (where the revolution will spread to next if those governments to not stop simply attempting to buy down their populations with oil money), are conducting UW with various Sunni groups in Syria and Iraq to facilitate the formation of a Sunni state (or states) there. It looks like the US either tacitly or covertly supports that play.

No one knows what the future will bring, but most should be able to see that the current framework of governance in the region where the states of Iraq and Syria currently burn is untenable. The US does not need to control this, and any efforts to do so will not only be likely to fail, but will also only validate the #1 rationale employed by AQ and others to motivate their target audience to conducts acts of transnational terrorism against the US and the West.

Mitigate, shape, develop lines of influence - yes to all. But the more we attempt to control the less of all three of those more critical factors we will have.

[carl]

Carl,

Who are "They"?

You are right that "they" in charge of ISIS, ISIL, Muslim Brotherhood, AQ, etc. choose to define the conflict in religious terms. As I have often said, this is the smartest and most effective way to recruit citizens to serve as guerrillas, as an underground, and as an auxiliary (in US doctrinal terms) in support of their agenda. But even those three broad groupings of the population only make up a small portion of Sunni populations of the greater Middle East and the entire planet writ large.

I suspect the majority of Sunni believe strongly that the governance they live under must change; but that a much smaller percentage believe they must act out illegally to effect that change; and a much smaller percentage still that believe that the future governance they should replace their current governance with is that extreme Islamist version is espoused by the "they" you seem so concerned about. The much larger "they" simply want fair opportunity, justice under the law, and reasonably evolved rights more in tune with the environment of the current day.

They are, as you said, the ones who are defining this as a religious conflict, as I said. They are the people with the weapons and the organization. So that makes them dangerous. What you believe the majority of Sunnis believe makes no difference at all even if they do believe as you think because the ones who matter are the ones with the weapons and the organization. They have not attended some secret conference somewhere and all agreed to pretend that they are motivated by religion just to recruit and motivate the foot killers. They don't fool themselves. They motivate their rank and file with the same thing that motivates them, religion.

As you said, but seem to refuse to acknowledge, the conflict is religious. They defined it such. We have to believe that they have done so in order to combat it. You gotta know the kind of fight the other guy has put you in even if you didn't want to be put into it.

[TheCurmudgeon]

They are, as you said, the ones who are defining this as a religious conflict, as I said. They are the people with the weapons and the organization. So that makes them dangerous. What you believe the majority of Sunnis believe makes no difference at all even if they do believe as you think because the ones who matter are the ones with the weapons and the organization. They have not attended some secret conference somewhere and all agreed to pretend that they are motivated by religion just to recruit and motivate the foot killers. They don't fool themselves. They motivate their rank and file with the same thing that motivates them, religion.

As you said, but seem to refuse to acknowledge, the conflict is religious. They defined it such. We have to believe that they have done so in order to combat it. You gotta know the kind of fight the other guy has put you in even if you didn't want to be put into it.

Carl,

What do you think it is about this religion that motivates them?

[carl]

Carl,

What do you think it is about this religion that motivates them?

I don't know. It is probably more useful to say what is it about religion rather than to speak about "this religion". If you go that track it still doesn't really matter about the details of belief and religion's place in the human heart. It matters that religion can be used as the reason to kill, conquer, rape and steal. It hasn't been widely fashionable lately but it is making a comeback in a big way.

[davidbfpo]

A short review by Professor Bruce Hoffman:http://news.siteintelgroup.com/blog/...-the-caliphate

Starts with:

Once again, the conventional wisdom in Washington about al-Qaeda (AQ) and the broader jihadi terrorist threat has been proven wrong. The wishful thinking passing for analysis since the beginning of the year that the split within the movement resulting in the expulsion of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) from the AQ fold would simultaneously weaken both Core AQ and ISIS—now pretentiously re-named the Islamic State (IS)—has been dramatically disproven by the latter's lightning thrust into Iraq and seizure of the northern and western parts of the war-torn country.

[Bill Moore]

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...ranc-print.php

As Sahab, al Qaeda's official media outlet, released a lengthy video promoting the creation of al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent today. The video, which was published on various Internet video sites, including YouTube, features Ayman al Zawahiri as well as Asim Umar, the new emir of al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and Usama Mahmoud, the group's spokesman. The video was translated by the SITE Intelligence group.

"A new branch of al-Qaeda was established and is Qaedat al-Jihad in the Indian Subcontinent, seeking to raise the flag of jihad, return the Islamic rule, and empowering the Shariah of Allah across the Indian subcontinent," Zawahiri says in the opening of the video, according to the translation by SITE.

Business should be good for this franchise since it is focused on of the most densely populated areas in the world with a wide spectrum of social and political issues, and questionable security forces.

Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh will need to cooperate at unprecedented levels to cut out this cancer before it metastasizes.

[OUTLAW 09]

The exchange between Bob and Bill is interesting for a number of reasons--but having dealt often with really good Islamists (good from their understanding of the Koran and the Sunnah and their speaking a really good Arabic) and even though I was the interrogator and they were the detainees the conversations sometimes got deep.

We in the West never took the time to try to understand what was driving them and often I caught myself actually agreeing with them--example---in 2005 and 2006 we never took the time to fully understand what was driving the Sunni insurgents---was it religious in nature, was it nationalism in nature meaning they did not like their country being invaded by Americans, was it they simply did not like foreigners and the list could go on and on.

Example---we chased someone for over two years---one year from the previous BCT the 1st ID and then we actually stumbled across him.

When I got his folder it was honestly four inches thick with reports over reports. So if one looked at the folder one would think you were dealing with a really major AQI fighter and or cell leader.

When I read through the reports I was stuck by a number of repeated reports saying virtually the same thing so that really the four inches went to about a half inch.

Then I simply said explain the remaining reports to me and just how did you get this massive reputation. He was startled by the direct question.

Here is the story and it goes to the heart of the ME and how we as Americans failed to fully understand what we were seeing.

This individual had a two brothers one a few years younger than himself (he was the oldest) and a really young brother of 12.

Next to the family in a small faming village near Baqubah there was a richer farmer who had a pond and ducks. One day the rich farmers wife came to my insurgents family and accused the youngest brother in front of the mother for stealing four of the ducks---the mother of the accused brother then slapped the rich farmers wife who went home crying.

Two days later the nephew of the rich farmers wife came to the insurgents family waving a pistol and demanding a financial payment for slapping the wife--this led to a gun fight with the nephew who was killed by the second oldest brother.

Now at least under Saddam the police functioned in 2002---the second oldest brother was arrested as was my insurgent who was later released as the investigating judge ruled there was no involvement on his part. The brother got a 20 year jail sentence for the killing and was in Abu Ghraib when we arrived in Baghdad and was released by Saddam just before we arrived thus basically freed of all charges.

So he goes home and there the aggrieved family then with every opportunity would finger the released brother for being in AQ , for being an insurgent, for being a criminal, for smuggling, for building IEDs, etc---and naturally we the Army collected all these reports which ended up in a targeting folder.

True reason for the massive reporting: ---the aggrieved family was simply mad that the murderer was out of jail and free and they wanted him locked back up.

When we did not respond by arresting the second brother the finger pointing towards my insurgent picked up as well with the same acusations ---at this stage in 2005 many BCTs did not fully understand this concept of Iraqi finger pointing which was using the Army by the local Iraqi as a vengeance tool against their alleged and perceived enemies.

Now AQI comes into play---in this town was a alcoholic AQ leader who often would walk down the street shooting his pistol at the locals---my insurgent had two windows shot out by him and one evening he goes down and basically shoots the AQI leader seriously wounding him---so now he is in trouble with the US Army, the AQI and caught between both the fronts.

He was also pushing AK47s that he had stolen from a local military camp because we did not get to Diyala until five weeks after arriving in Baghdad. So AQI upped the pressure and threatened his family if he did not sell them the weapons which he did --so now we have him on the radar as a AQI weapons dealer.

So now I have him sitting in front of me with a four inch folder as a AQI member, an AQI weapons dealer---all because of four allegedly stolen ducks back in 2002.

Or as the BN that captured him stated---he was a really bad dude.

Guess what--- we the US Army until 2010 never got this finger pointing exercise that the Iraqi's used with us to settle their personal disputes.

By the way many Iraqi women learned quickly that by accusing their husbands of being AQI we would arrest them and then they were gone for at least 2 or more years in Abu Ghraib and Bucca---during this period they would then divorce their husbands because the Army had arrested them as "terrorists" ---this was jokingly referred to as the "Iraq divorce".

[slapout9]

It literally means to submit..... does it not? or more generally to submit to the will of Allah. That means there is nothing to interpret!!!! nothing to analyze!!!! nothing to do but follow and submit!!!!! or be killed as an infidel. In fact only an infidel would try an analyze or interpret Islam which is an abomination in and of itself. This is what we never seem to understand. That is why the only way out is to follow......... The Prime Directive!