Two analysts review AQ's future, both co-operate so there is some overlap.

First, CWOT aka Clint Watts (SWC member), in Part Four of his review:http://www.fpri.org/geopoliticus/201...unterterrorism

Rather than punishing ISIS and regaining authority over the global jihad, Zawahiri and al Qaeda may soon become the second largest jihadist organization in the world. Angered by Zawahiri’s betrayal and admiring of ISIS commitment to pursue an Islamic state, what were once thought to be al Qaeda Central affiliates are openly declaring allegiance to ISIS emir Baghdadi.
There is a lot there to take in, so a comment another day.

Second, J.M. Berger of Intelwire.com, has a chart (as below) and a short explanation of how this evolved:http://news.intelwire.com/2014/03/al...es-update.html