Assessing Al-Qaeda (merged thread)

[Bill Moore]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25206462#!

"They are technically adept, they move very fast, they have a core of experienced people, they operate in a country with fragile areas and elude the Yemeni authorities. Plus they have the ability to inspire people to lone acts of terror."

What makes AQAP so dangerous is its Saudi master bomb-maker, Ibrahim al-Asiri, one of the CIA's most wanted targets. He is thought to be the brains behind all three non-metallic devices that got past airport security.

Last year, just weeks before the London Olympics, they handed a new, upgraded device to one of their number who volunteered to be a suicide bomber. But he turned out to be an informant who fled to Saudi Arabia, taking the device with him, which was then passed by the Saudis to the FBI for analysis.

All the more reason we should continue drone strikes. These individuals are striving to kill hundreds of innocent civilians by destroying commercial aircraft and we're worried about the potential blowback from drone strikes? Does anybody really think if we stop they'll stop?

[Bill Moore]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-26281231

Al-Qaeda: Younger men take up leadership roles - UN study

"Younger commanders and fighters have a different perspective on international affairs, have the potential to generate propaganda that chimes with their generation more easily, and can also challenge their own leadership on tactics and targets," the UN experts found.

Further points highlighted in the report were:

Shifting locations: Affiliates find new spaces from which to operate when pushed back by government forces

Operational changes: Complex, simultaneous multi-strike attacks demonstrate that local branches are seeking to follow al-Qaeda core guidance for "spectacular" incidents

Potential return to Afghanistan: al-Qaeda is seeking to regroup and rebuild a presence in Afghanistan ahead of Nato's withdrawal of international troops at the end of 2014

Better weapons: Bombs are getting large and more innovative, with at least 90 countries suffering attacks

Now the actual report:

http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_...mbol=S/2014/41

Fifteenth report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team submitted pursuant to resolution 2083 (2012) concerning Al-Qaida and associated individuals and entities

Summary

1. The present report is the fifteenth to be submitted by the Analytical Support
and Sanctions Monitoring Team, which supports the work of the Security Council and its Committee established pursuant to Security Council resolutions 1267 (1999) and 1989 (2011) and now referred to as the Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee. The Team finds that Al-Qaida (QE.A.4.01) remains a threat, even though it has not been able to recover its former strength. Meanwhile multiple Al-Qaida affiliates are evolving, often autonomously, with generational, geographical, ethnic, structural and operational changes in evidence. The overarching ideology of international terrorism remains central for all affiliates, but local experiences and preferences generate varying operational trends. This presents a challenge for any analysis of Al-Qaida as a whole. The report also identifies three specific approaches to enhance sanctions implementation:

• First, deterring ransom payments to Al-Qaida and its affiliates to advance the
assets freeze
• Second, using biometrics and changes to national inadmissible passenger
criteria to advance the travel ban against listed individuals
• Third, improving analysis of and measures to limit component availability for
improvised explosive devices used by Al-Qaida and its affiliates

[Bill Moore]

This article focuses on ISI's support for various militant groups to include Al-Qaeda, which of course is worthy of its own discussion. I'll limit my thoughts on the paragraph where al-Qaeda sees it future in the Indian Ocean Region post Afghanistan, and they see the value in a Naval capability. What would an al-Qaeda naval capability look like? LTTE model? Quds Force model?

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/23/ma...n.html?hp&_r=0

What Pakistan Knew About Bin Laden

At the meeting, Bin Laden rejected Akhtar’s request for help and urged him and other militant groups not to fight Pakistan but to serve the greater cause — the jihad against America. He warned against fighting inside Pakistan because it would destroy their home base: “If you make a hole in the ship, the whole ship will go down,” he said.

He wanted Akhtar and the Taliban to accelerate the recruitment and training of fighters so they could trap United States forces in Afghanistan with a well-organized guerrilla war. Bin Laden said that Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia and the Indian Ocean region would be Al Qaeda’s main battlefields in the coming years, and that he needed more fighters from those areas. He even offered naval training for militants, saying that the United States would soon exit Afghanistan and that the next war would be waged on the seas.

[davidbfpo]

Two analysts review AQ's future, both co-operate so there is some overlap.

First, CWOT aka Clint Watts (SWC member), in Part Four of his review:http://www.fpri.org/geopoliticus/201...unterterrorism

Rather than punishing ISIS and regaining authority over the global jihad, Zawahiri and al Qaeda may soon become the second largest jihadist organization in the world. Angered by Zawahiri’s betrayal and admiring of ISIS commitment to pursue an Islamic state, what were once thought to be al Qaeda Central affiliates are openly declaring allegiance to ISIS emir Baghdadi.

There is a lot there to take in, so a comment another day.

Second, J.M. Berger of Intelwire.com, has a chart (as below) and a short explanation of how this evolved:http://news.intelwire.com/2014/03/al...es-update.html

[Bill Moore]

http://www.realclearworld.com/articl..._reignite.html

Some interesting comments from an Indian and Indonesian CT practitioner. While not stating it directly, their arguments give support to the emergence and spread of Al-Qaedaism.

We see plenty of signs indicating a resurgence of terrorism in SE Asia, and of course India is justifiably concerned about a surge of terrorism in India within two years of our departure from Afghanistan.

Talking to both Ali and Doval gives a kind of stereoscopic depth of view to the re-emerging terror threat. They share key concerns: what is happening in Syria, what will soon happen in Afghanistan, the growing popularity of al-Qa'ida ideology in North Africa and the Middle East and the deep strategic planning of jihadist networks.

"Al-Qa'ida doesn't have to seek them out. Quite the reverse. Sometimes it rejects them.

"But this acceptance by all these groups of al-Qa'ida as the ideological hub is extremely important. Al-Qa'ida doesn't have a local agenda, it only has a local geography. Its agenda is global."

[davidbfpo]

A short commentary by Bruce Hoffman on the SITE website 'Perfect Storm: The Arab Spring and the Syrian Civil War':http://news.siteintelgroup.com/blog/...rian-civil-war

It reminds us that it is not Jihadist attacks, terrorism or actions that are the primary threat, it is the message and it is spreading (a point that has appeared elsewhere on SWC this week).

[Bill Moore]

A short commentary by Bruce Hoffman on the SITE website 'Perfect Storm: The Arab Spring and the Syrian Civil War':http://news.siteintelgroup.com/blog/...rian-civil-war

It reminds us that it is not Jihadist attacks, terrorism or actions that are the primary threat, it is the message and it is spreading (a point that has appeared elsewhere on SWC this week).

Excellent piece by Bruce Hoffman, thanks for sharing.

I'm not sure I follow your commentary though, a message alone doesn't threaten us, it is the actions taken by the Jihadists that threaten us. The message came first, and now the message interacts with the actions in many ways to make it more appealing to those thousands, or perhaps tens of thousands, who are interested in and identify with the message. A lot of people were interested in, and identified with Christianity also, but that message didn't threaten us, because people usually didn't act out violently because of the message (though one can argue that point).

The fact that the message resonates despite a collective "our" best efforts to weaken it should definitely cause concern. As Bruce points out the impact of social media on the ability to get their message out is important.

The advantages of the new social media to terrorists are manifold. Ease, interactivity and networking, reach, frequency, usability, stability, immediacy, publicity, and permanence are benefits reaped by those terrorist groups exploiting and harnessing these new technologies. A new generation of celebrity fighters is also being created, heralded and extolled in a familiar vernacular to Facebook friends and Twitter followers throughout the world.

His comments on their attempt to produce chemical weapons was interesting also. Not surprising since AQ leadership has expressed desire to obtain WMD for many years, but with the assumption that some of the scientists who helped Syria and Iraq develop their chemical weapons joined the jihadist movement the risk is greater that they will succeed in acquiring an actual chemical weapon. How effectively can they employ it? That is still an unanswered question.

in May 2013 Turkish authorities reportedly seized two kilos of sarin nerve gas—the same weapon used in the 1995 attack on the Tokyo subway system—and arrested twelve men linked to al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al Nusra. Only days later, another set of sarin-related arrests was made in Iraq of ISIS operatives overseeing the production at two factories of both sarin and mustard blistering agents.

Favorite quotes from the article:

Wishful thinking

And, the longing for democracy and economic reform across North Africa and the Middle East that the same optimists enthused had decisively trumped repression and violence.

Reality

Despite having suffered the greatest onslaught directed against a terrorist organization in history, al-Qaeda’s ideology and brand has nonetheless prospered.

It is time to rethink this challenge with a clean slate and without the biases of political correctness or Islam phobia.