Assessing Al-Qaeda (merged thread)

**Jedburgh** · 05-24-2006

Michael Scheuer, writing for the the Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Focus, 23 May:

Al-Qaeda Doctrine: The Eventual Need for Semi-Conventional Forces

...al-Qaeda believes that it and its allies can only defeat the United States in a "long war," one that allows the Islamists to capitalize on their extraordinary patience, as well as on their enemies' lack thereof. Before his death in a firefight with Saudi security forces, the leader of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Abu Hajar Abd al-Aziz al-Muqrin, wrote extensively about how al-Qaeda believed the military fight against the United States and its allies would unfold. He envisioned a point at which the mujahideen would have to develop semi-conventional forces. He identified this period as the "Decisive Stage".

Al-Muqrin told his insurgent readers that the power of the United States precluded any expectation of a quick victory. He wrote that the war would progress slowly through such phases as initial manpower mobilization, political work among the populace to establish trust and support, the accumulation of weaponry and other supplies, the establishment of bases around the country and especially in the mountains, the initiation of attacks on individuals and then a gradual intensification of the latter until a countrywide insurgency was underway. Each of these steps was essential and none could be skipped, al-Muqrin maintained; the steps would prolong the war, thereby allowing the mujahideen to grow in numbers, experience and combat power. "We should warn against rushing from one stage to the next," he wrote. "Rather, we should be patient and take all factors into consideration. The fraternal brothers in Algeria, for instance, hastily moved from one stage to the other…The outcome was the movement's retreat...from 1995-1997."...

**Jedburgh** · 09-25-2006

Andrew Black, writing for the the Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 21 Sep:

Al-Suri's Adaptation of Fourth Generation Warfare Doctrine

In a highly influential and sizeable treatise posted in January 2005 and titled "The Global Islamic Resistance Call," jihadi ideologue Abu Musab al-Suri (aka Mustafa Setmariam Nasar) culminated a life of activity by providing his strategic template for the Global Salafi-Jihad. This work, rare for its self-examining and almost scientific approach, provides details for how the jihad should pursue its campaign henceforth. While not outwardly acknowledging it, al-Suri's strategic manifesto carries many of the same tenets of fourth generation warfare (4GW) as outlined by military analyst William Lind. Perhaps the reason he did not cite Lind's writings as motivation is that al-Suri's work demonstrates a significant step in the development of the 4GW doctrine...

**Jedburgh** · 10-27-2006

Chris Zambelis, writing for the the Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 24 Oct:

Al-Hakaima Positions Himself for Key Role in the Global Salafi-Jihad

As the media spotlight continues to highlight Muhammed Khalil al-Hakaima's "Myth of Delusion," it is important to emphasize that al-Hakaima has authored other detailed works dealing with tactical and operational issues related to intelligence and warfare that warrant closer examination. These documents have been circulating for weeks on radical Islamist forums shortly after al-Qaeda's second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahiri introduced al-Hakaima as an al-Qaeda partner in a videotaped statement issued on August 5. They are also available on the website of al-Thabeton ala al-Ahad (Those who Stand Firm for the Covenant), al-Hakaima's organization, in sections located on the website's title page labeled "Your Guide to Individual Jihad" and "Statements by Sheikh al-Hakaima." It appears that these documents are part of a collection of publications, including a manual entitled "Towards a Better Strategy to Resist the Occupiers" (http://www.althabeton.co.nr). Similar to "Myth of Delusion," these works are well researched and contain detailed information on practical aspects of intelligence, conventional warfare, special operations, assassinations, insurgency and related topics. The underlying theme in al-Hakaima's publications stresses the importance of individual initiative on the part of aspiring extremists who are called on to hone their skills and take up arms against what he labels the "enemy occupiers."...

Related article in the same issue: Online Jihadi Forums Provide Curriculum for Aspiring Mujahideen

**Jedburgh** · 01-20-2007

More on Al-Suri from the Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 18 Jan 07:

Al-Suri's Doctrines for Decentralized Jihadi Training - Part 1

The evolution toward smaller, more autonomous and decentralized organizational structures has been identified as a key trend in jihadi terrorism during the past few years. Confronting amorphous structures and networks, which lack clearly identifiable organizational linkages and command structures and in which self-radicalization and self-recruitment are key elements, is a formidable challenge for security services. The jihadi decentralization trend is clearly a result of counter-terrorism successes. These "defeats" have been scrutinized and digested in the writings of key jihadi theoreticians during the past few years. New roadmaps and operational concepts are being explored as the jihadis search for effective ways to operate in the much less permissive security environment of the post-9/11 era....

Edit to add: Part 2, in the Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 1 Feb 07:

Training jihadi recruits in the post-9/11 world is increasingly about finding a safe place where training is possible rather than discussing curricula, facilities, selection of recruits, instructors and related tasks. In his voluminous treatise The Call to Global Islamic Resistance, published on the internet in January 2005, the Syrian-born al-Qaeda veteran Mustafa bin Abd al-Qadir Setmariam Nasar, better known as Abu Mus'ab al-Suri and Umar Abd al-Hakim, examines five different methods for jihadi training based on past jihadi practices:

1. Secret training in safe houses.
2. Training in small secret camps in the area of operations.
3. Overt training under the auspices of states providing safe havens.
4. Overt training in the camps of the Open Fronts.
5. Semi-overt training in areas of chaos and no [governmental] control....

**slapout9** · 01-20-2007

Jed,this is fantastic stuff. Should be read by all. I know everyone is tired of me saying this but this article explains why the Strategic Framework of Ends,Ways and Means is not going to work. It is Motive,Methods,and Opportunity. The article explains it far better then I can but we had better wake up to this because these guys are not just tough, but smart!

The counter so to speak, at least for the US is in SWJ magazine#7. I can not remember the name of the article but it is about the training philosophy used by Carlson's raiders. Again read the article, it is quite good.

As usual for your listening plasure and cultural enhancement and dedicated to all the AQ assholes in the world. Keep looking behind you!! that is (US) you here coming to take you away.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmfgrcpRpoo

**Jedburgh** · 10-03-2007

CTC, 2 Oct 07: Cracks in the Foundation: Leadership Schisms in al-Qa’ida from 1989-2006

The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point is pleased to present the report, Cracks in the Foundation: Leadership Schisms in al-Qa’ida from 1989-2006. Based on a collection of al-Qa’ida documents recently released from the Department of Defense's Harmony Database, in addition to the previously released documents utilized in the Combating Terorrism Center’s two prior Harmony reports, this report analyzes the history of al-Qa’ida’s internal and long-running debates over the strategies and larger goals of the jihadi movement. Many of these documents, captured in the course of operations supporting the Global War on Terror, have never before been available to the academic and policy community. Cracks in the Foundation includes a richly sourced account of the ongoing struggle between different factions among al-Qa’ida’s leaders and specific recommendations for effectively exploiting weaknesses arising from these internal struggles. We have provided brief summaries of each of the released documents, and the full texts of the released documents can be accessed via hyperlinks within the report, both in their original Arabic and in English. We hope this report will serve as a useful resource in our collective efforts to better understand and combat al-Qa'ida and its affiliated movements.

**goesh** · 10-03-2007

The kill rate in Iraq and Afghan, regardless of how accurate it is or is not, reflects I think the tactical need for AQ and its allies to have blooded operatives/cell leaders. The screw-ups in attempted attacks on the Western front have that element in common and we may be too inclined to chalk off such attempts as being the work of amateurs when in fact it may simply be a lack of nerve due to no combat experience, IMO.

**Jedburgh** · 12-11-2007

Originally Posted by Jedburgh

CTC, 2 Oct 07: Cracks in the Foundation: Leadership Schisms in al-Qa’ida from 1989-2006

CTC has now released a report based on the documents provided at the link in my earlier post:

The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point is pleased to present the report, Cracks in the Foundation: Leadership Schisms in al-Qa’ida from 1989-2006. Based on a collection of al-Qa’ida documents recently released from the Department of Defense's Harmony Database, in addition to the previously released documents utilized in the Combating Terorrism Center’s two prior Harmony reports, this report analyzes the history of al-Qa’ida’s internal and long-running debates over the strategies and larger goals of the jihadi movement. Many of these documents, captured in the course of operations supporting the Global War on Terror, have never before been available to the academic and policy community. Cracks in the Foundation includes a richly sourced account of the ongoing struggle between different factions among al-Qa’ida’s leaders and specific recommendations for effectively exploiting weaknesses arising from these internal struggles. We have provided brief summaries of each of the released documents, and the full texts of the released documents can be accessed via hyperlinks within the report, both in their original Arabic and in English. We hope this report will serve as a useful resource in our collective efforts to better understand and combat al-Qa'ida and its affiliated movements.