Assessing Al-Qaeda (merged thread)

[tequila]

I wonder about that. We seem to have assumed from the beginning that AQ was a completely independent entity. Is it possible that they have actually been an instrument of the Muslim Brotherhood?

There is much evidence against this thesis and very little towards it - I would ask if you have any for this argument.

Also I think you overestimate the unity of the MB itself. Are you talking about the Egyptian MB, the Jordanian MB, the Syrian, Hamas?

[jmm99]

I'd suggest a look at (from pp.14-15 pdf):

Another vulnerability of Zawahiri is his attacks and abject hatred of the Muslim Brotherhood, that found its ultimate expression in a 1994 book “Bitter Harvest.” Zawahiri attacks the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas and Hizballah for working with the government and participating in electoral politics. This only serves to further isolate al-Qaida and Zawahiri from the wider Islamist movement.

Ayman al-Zawahiri, A Mythic Figure or Fringe Leader within the Islamist Political Movement: Highlighting the 2006 Writings of Egyptian Journalist Gamal Abdal-Rahim (by LCDR Youssef Aboul-Enein, MSC, USN 2006) (15 pages pdf).

This is a book review, not a scholarly thesis; but it points up the links and disputes that now-target #1 had with the various factions and affiliated groups of the Egyptian MB.

While collateral to Zawahiri's relationship to EGB, I think this comment by LCDR Aboul-Enein (pp.13-14 pdf) is worth some present thought (emphasis added):

Another disagreement I have with the book is the insistence that the term al-Qaida was derived from the string of five Afghan bases (Farouk, Badr, Jalalabad, al-Siddiq and Jihad), it is most likely the name was derived from Azzam’s many speeches and writings calling for the establishment of al-Qaida al-Sulba (firm foundation). The language of Islamist militants is important, as base and foundation are two different entities, with a foundation connoting flexibility that ranges from base to a transnational world of global logistical support.

The wider "base-foundation" concept is somewhat similar to our (US) concept of a special operations base, which can have more than one geographic location so long as the functional components are networked.

I'd hope that the above is useful for educational, not argumentative, purposes.

Regards

Mike

[J Wolfsberger]

I'd hope that the above is useful for educational, not argumentative, purposes.

It is.

However, both AG and MB seek dramatic ("revolution arty") change in the Moslem world. Specifically, a return to a pure, Islamic form of ordering society, ala Qutb and Salafism. In revolutionary theory, there is usually an open, political, "peaceful" organization, in this case MB, and a covert, "military," violent organization, in this case AQ. The two are almost always publicly disapproving of each other for disinformation purposes.

Similar to your comments, mine are for discussion, not argumentative, purposes.

[jmm99]

but maybe someone else has them (with sources), and that is an estimate of adherents to "ala Qutb and Salafism" among Muslims. Also MB adherents among its various branches. Then we could have some fact-based discussion - I know, I'm no fun.

This stuff can get pretty esoteric as in this SWJ publication, Jai Singh and John David Perry, Ayman Al-Zawahiri’s Citations of the Qur’an: A Descriptive Study of Selected Works (2010) (pdf pp.12-14):

The most cited chapters were at Tawba (Surah 9, 39 citations), aal-e-Imran (Surah 3, 32 citations), an Nisa (Surah 4, 31 citations), al Maeda (Surah 5, 26 citations), al Anfal (Surah 8, 23 citations), al Baqara (Surah 2, 16 citations), al Ahzab (Surah 33, 16) and Muhammad (Surah 47, 12 citations). Taken together, these eight chapters provided a substantial portion of all chapters cited (69.1%).
....
The distribution of ayat cited within each surah was then considered (using all 428 ayat). The most cited surahs were all Medinan era with al Baqara (Surah 2, 18 citations), Aal-E-Imran (Surah 3, 58 citations), an Nisa (Surah 4, 42 citations), al Maeda (Surah 5, 43 citations), al Anfal (Surah 8, 31 citations), at Tawba (Surah 9, 58 citations), al Ahzab (Surah 33, 35 citations) and Muhammad (Surah 47, 21 citations). Together, these citations represented 71.5% (306 of 428) of all citations noted. The distribution of ayat cited in each of these surahs is shown in Figures 1.
.....
The three most oft-cited ayat were Surah at Tawba (9:38, 13 citations) and Surah al Maeda (5: 51, 10 citations; 5:52, 9 citations). Neither of the “sword verses,” 9:5 and 9:29, were cited by al Zawahiri.

I found the last sentence interesting - since he has no aversion to the sword.

Regards

Mike

[tequila]

I agree with one thing: both al-Qaeda and the MB in its various incarnations have the same broad goal - an Islamist state that governs principally by sharia law. AQ probably envisions this state covering all the old domains of the Umayyad caliphate + Central Asia and East Africa, while the MB's mental map doesn't go quite so far, but one should never, ever forget that the MB are Islamists.

I very much doubt, however, that the MB/AQ are like Sinn Fein/PIRA. More like the Communist Party of India (Marxist), which governed West Bengal and Kerala for decades, and the Red Army Faction. Both fly the Communist flag, both probably envision a state governed by Communist principles - but one participates in government more or less peacefully, while the other principally enjoys bombing people and issuing communiques - and neither in communication or control of the other.

[AdamG]

I'm reading this and hearing one of Sasha Cohen's voices, probably a Borat variant.

In a Youtube video uploaded by the imam he said: "The western dogs are rejoicing after killing one of our Islamic lions. From Al-Aqsa Mosque, where the future caliphate will originate with the help of God, we say to them – the dogs will not rejoice too much for killing the lions. The dogs will remain dogs and the lion, even if he is dead, will remain a lion."

The imam then verbally attacked US President Barack Obama saying: "You personally instructed to kill Muslims. You should know that soon you'll hang together with Bush Junior."

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...064183,00.html

[J Wolfsberger]

There is much evidence against this thesis and very little towards it - I would ask if you have any for this argument.

Also I think you overestimate the unity of the MB itself. Are you talking about the Egyptian MB, the Jordanian MB, the Syrian, Hamas?

I wasn't advancing a theory, I was speculating on a possibility. It seems reasonable that MB, having been largely driven underground throughout the Moslem world, would spin off AQ as a pressure group, thereby obtaining the twin benefit of destabilizing the authoritarian regimes and being able to cast themselves as "moderate."

Along with that speculation, I suppose I should raise the question just how much of the perception of the unity of MB (or lack thereof) is due to actual knowledge, and how much is due to any coordination having been driven underground as a result of the suppression of MB by the various authoritarian regimes in the region. (In fact, I can't think of any country where they were allowed to operate completely in the open without fear of suppression - including Egypt.)

Again, just a speculative question for consideration. YMMV.