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Thread: Assessing Al-Qaeda (merged thread)

  1. #281
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    Default The Fight So Far

    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    A short article from a UK Business News website, the actual title is: 'There are nearly four times as many jihadist militants today than on 9/11, and the 'war on terror' has been a 'terrifyingly expensive failure'. BLUF:
    On a quick read it appears to be based on a CSIS report published this week.
    Link:http://https://www.csis.org/analysis...ihadist-threat

    Link to the website article:http://uk.businessinsider.com/there-...8-11?r=US&IR=T
    An article from the Director of Strategic Planning for the National Counterterrorism Center.

    The Fight So Far (NOV 2018)

    https://fortunascorner.com/2018/11/2...g-mike-nagata/

    The purpose of this narrative is to encourage a larger and more effective discussion about these investments, practices, and choices.
    Despite our efforts of the past 17 years, terrorists’ ability to raise revenue and resources, sponsor and broadcast extremist ideologies, recruit fighters, and move terrorist operatives from country to country has significantly grown.

    Said more simply, the United States is facing an upward strategic trajectory of global terrorism.
    The author argues due to an increase in great power competition, and there will be military force available to fight terrorists kinetically as we have been doing for the past 17 years; therefore, we need to dedicate more effort to non-kinetic means. This can be summed up as counter their narrative, contest their use of the internet, target their resources, and prevent terrorist travel. All of these things are being done now, but maybe more is required. I remain less than optimistic in our ability to counter their narrative. We have a built in cultural bias that these terrorists and the populations they operate in want to be like us, despite that flies in the face of the facts. Our proposed cure is to change their culture, push democracy, capitalism, economic development, women's rights, etc. It was never U.S. hard power that was the driver of modern day jihadist terrorism, but our soft power. The prevailing issue is not economic, but ideological, or more accurately incompatible ideologies. The non-kinetic ideas of denying terrorism freedom of movement on the internet, disrupting their resources and travel are proven to have some effect, even if it isn't decisive. We need to rethink the other non-kinetic approaches.

  2. #282
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Al-Qaeda is resurgent and seeking to carry out new terrorist atrocities against airliners and airports, the security minister Ben Wallace warned last night.

    The terrorist group behind the 9/11 attacks in 2001 poses a growing threat that is keeping ministers “awake at night”, he told The Sunday Times.

    Wallace said intelligence had revealed that al-Qaeda was developing technology to bring down passenger jets. Whitehall officials say that could include miniaturised bombs. Islamists have also plotted to use drones packed with explosives to blow up key targets.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/n...ners-mlj3lgf87
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
    A canter down some dark defile
    Two thousand pounds of education
    Drops to a ten-rupee jezail


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  3. #283
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Time for "spin"

    Well Mr Wallace, Security Minister @ Home Office, you didn't update Mr Chris Grayling @ Dept Transport, who decided not to push through legislation on drone activity near airports. So saying this is "click bait":
    Wallace said intelligence had revealed that al-Qaeda was developing technology to bring down passenger jets. Whitehall officials say that could include miniaturised bombs. Islamists have also plotted to use drones packed with explosives to blow up key targets.
    Really? From a BBC report:
    His comments come after a report in the Times claimed Transport Secretary Chris Grayling had delayed plans for further legislation regulating drone use.
    Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46663898
    davidbfpo

  4. #284
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    You can see the full article here without a subscription.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/uk-say...-and-airports/

    Do you wonder if we're gradually slipping back to 9/10? Lack of imagination? Still issues with interagency collaboration and information sharing, etc.?

    “The aviation threat is real,” Wallace told British newspaper The Sunday Times. “Al-Qaeda are resurgent. They have reorganized. They are pushing more and more plots towards Europe and have become familiar with new methods and still aspire to aviation attacks.”
    There is a lot of they could do this in the article, all realistic options, but still largely conjecture. In response are we focused on what we can do to mitigate these potential threats, or are we simply admiring the problem?

  5. #285
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default

    Bill,

    Thanks for the link. I still consider his reported statement is "spin"; a distraction from the Gatwick incident - where incidentally the police have reported doubts there ever was a drone! There is nothing new in what he reportedly said.
    davidbfpo

  6. #286
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
    Bill,

    Thanks for the link. I still consider his reported statement is "spin"; a distraction from the Gatwick incident - where incidentally the police have reported doubts there ever was a drone! There is nothing new in what he reportedly said.
    David,

    I agree with the spin, but at the same time I do think we'll see the emergence of al-Qaeda 3.0 and although ISIS core has been psychologically and physically dislocated, malignant ISIS cancerous cells have metastasized to a number of countries. The threat of Islamist terrorism is far from over, and it will evolve and of course we need to co-evolve so we can continue to disrupt their large scale attacks. I don't think there is any way to decisively defeat this threat and call it a day. Instead we will have to continue counterterrorism operations indefinitely to maintain enough pressure on these groups and individuals to keep them off balance enough to prevent another 9/11 scale attack. At the same time, we have to shift a great deal of effort to great power competition and prepare for a large scale war with peer competitors with the aim of preventing war, but winning it if necessary. Where we need to go in the near future is clearer now, but how we will navigate there remains unclear to me for now.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 08-04-2019 at 09:48 AM. Reason: 320,812v today

  7. #287
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default No longer does al-Qaida grab the headlines. That might be the plan

    Jason Burke, a UK journalist whose focus is often AQ and jihadists, has a short column and asks:
    how is it that a group that commanded such extraordinary, unprecedented attention across the world from 2001 to 2011 can disappear from public attention so completely?
    Link:https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-might-be-plan
    davidbfpo

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