Six Months That Could Change Iraq

[Gian P Gentile]

Here is a thoughtful piece, Six Months That Could Change Iraq: Three Possible Post-Surge Scenarios, by Fred Kaplan in a recent issue of "Slate." Kaplan offers three possible scenarios unfolding in Iraq over the next six months; one good, the other two bad.

If you accept the characterization of Iraq today posited by Bing West in his recent response-article to Colin Kahl that Iraq is essentially one of a simple counterinsurgency problem with al-queda being the insurgent and now the tribes, shia and sunnis writ large, and the government along with US support fighting the alqueda insurgents then Kaplan's "good" scenario seems very possible. If however, you see Iraq now as a complex problem of Civil War consisting of multiple players and actors then Kaplan's two "bad" scenarios look very likely.

In any case it is a good and short read.

gg