Klein's Shock Doctrine

[Ken White]

Surferbeetle said:

..."I would argue that the people of any country are an essential center of gravity which needs to be addressed in operations which involve the country; these include military, economic, and political. When it comes to strictly military operations kinetic skill is paramount. Winners understand this and losers do not. Small Wars however, are not limited to strictly military operations and thus it is vital that a functional and effective strategy is crafted which successfully engages the populace of a country. We are still trying to implement a succesful one in Iraq.

I totally agree. I would only argue that said 'addressing' should be undertaken BEFORE commitment and should include the views of many to include regionally knowledgable people outside government and that the assessment of what is entailed be considered with as much objectivity as possible. That would include, IMO, the fact that "winning hearts and minds" is generally unlikely and that attempts to do so without pragmatic consideration of probabilities make the phrase, like 'achieving total victory,' a construct that in this day should be avoided lest it produce a deluded sense of what is likely to occur. Words, as they say, are important. Expectations should be realistic and the "gee, wouldn't it be nice if..." ideas should be realized for what they all too frequently are -- unattainable.

The goal should be a satisfactory outcome and that can be obtained in most circumstances as long as we don't pursue the old chimeras.

That is true and appears at this time to be on the way with respect to Iraq even though we erred on many counts early on. I'm personally impressed with the speed and agility with which we have reoriented. Terribly slow to many, I know but for anyone who knows the beast, pretty rapid recalculation and good effort.

Look forward to your post.

J Wolfsberger said:

...That's an eleven year span. Demanding the Iraqis do (or criticizing them for not doing) the same in a bit over four years is ... inappropriate.

Well and politely said. Posting rules would have allowed me to echo your statement while precluding the first word that pops into my mind every time I see that inappropriate impatience expressed. I always get particularly dismissive when Iraq is compared to "WWII only took us four years..."

What Ms. Klein refers to as "Neo-Colonialism" seems to involve "cultural dominance." And while it is clear to her, it is unclear to me whether any such thing exists.

Just so...

"(...I was told I clearly didn't understand the nature and structure of socialist states. In hindsight, I think it's clear somebody didn't. )

Heh. Aren't 'true believers' a fascinating sub species...

[Surferbeetle]

Newsweek’s 2006 analysis of Iraq’s Economy

“ Even so, there's a vibrancy at the grass roots that is invisible in most international coverage of Iraq. Partly it's the trickle-down effect. However it's spent, whether on security or something else, money circulates. Nor are ordinary Iraqis themselves short on cash. After so many years of living under sanctions, with little to consume, many built up considerable nest eggs--which they are now spending. That's boosted economic activity, particularly in retail. Imported goods have grown increasingly affordable, thanks to the elimination of tariffs and trade barriers. Salaries have gone up more than 100 percent since the fall of Saddam, and income-tax cuts (from 45 percent to just 15 percent) have put more cash in Iraqi pockets. "The U.S. wanted to create the conditions in which small-scale private enterprise could blossom," says Jan Randolph, head of sovereign risk at Global Insight. "In a sense, they've succeeded." “

http://www.newsweek.com/id/44302

IMF’s July 2007 Iraq Analysis

The Central Bank of Iraq’s Interest Policy Rate has gone from 6% in 2004 to 20% in 2007 while the Dinar Exchange Rate has dropped from 1949 to the Dollar in October of 2003 to 1256 to the Dollar in June 0f 2007. Exports of Oil, Dates, and ‘Other Commodities’ continue to increase with the bulk of exports going to North & South America, followed by the EU, and then Asia.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/...07/cr07294.pdf

The Economist’s 2008-09 Iraq GDP Forecast

“Our higher oil production forecasts, and the recent improvement in security, have led us to revise up our real GDP growth projections for Iraq, with economic expansion now expected to rise to 4% in 2008 and 5.6% in 2009.”

http://www.economist.com/countries/I...ofile-Forecast

Iraq’s Stock Exchange

“ Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX) introduced a special index in October 2004 which closed in December 2004 at (64.996) points, December 2006 at (25.288) points. January 2007 at (25.903) points and December 2007 at (34.590) points.”

http://www.isx-iq.com/

Central Bank of Iraq

http://www.cbiraq.org

[J Wolfsberger]

"Neo-Liberal" economics seems to be a leftist attempt to rebrand classical economics with a "Neo-Con" taint. Ms. Klein will probably be using this as an example of U.S. "Neo-Colonialism:" Forcing the Iraqi's to adopt economic policies that lead to growing prosperity and economic stability. Assuming, of coarse, that she even acknowledges the positive news.

[Uboat509]

Ken,

With regard to your issue with the term "hearts and minds," LTC Kilcullen makes the point that "hearts and minds" does not mean getting them to like you but getting them to see that it is in their best interest to work with rather than against us. Viewed from that context, do you see value in the concept or am I playing with semantics. My experience with the ME has shown me that most there have a clearly defined sense of self-interest. Certainly, we must tap into that to have any sort success there. That is how I have always thought of that term and it has definitely affected how I dealt with the Iraqis I met on a daily basis. I never had any illusions about getting them to like me (but then I am a cynic anyway).

SFC W

[Ken White]

Ken,

With regard to your issue with the term "hearts and minds," LTC Kilcullen makes the point that "hearts and minds" does not mean getting them to like you but getting them to see that it is in their best interest to work with rather than against us. Viewed from that context, do you see value in the concept or am I playing with semantics. My experience with the ME has shown me that most there have a clearly defined sense of self-interest. Certainly, we must tap into that to have any sort success there. That is how I have always thought of that term and it has definitely affected how I dealt with the Iraqis I met on a daily basis. I never had any illusions about getting them to like me (but then I am a cynic anyway).

SFC W

who see or hear it -- unless they have some experience as you do and realize that you can get host nation folks to act in their own interests but they aren't ever going to like you in the fullest sense of the word.

Most civilians who see the term promoted by those are responsible for COIN or involved in the effort in some way assume the intent is to "win them over to our side and love us." Intuitively they know somethings not quite right about that. Those opposed to the effort will use every violent act to say "You aren't going to win hearts and minds that way..."

I can go with 'win their minds' -- it's the "heart" bit that muddies the water. I think "...active or tacit support..." is a better if sorta stuffy term. Regardless, H&M is a part of the vocabulary now; we're stuck with it.

Agree with you on the ME; when all is said and done, they are very pragmatic and perhaps more so than the nominally less emotional westerner. They will always dislike the ferenghi as a group but may take to individual westerners and will almost always support the apparent winner and someone who treats them fairly and respectfully particularly if they see an advantage to the tribe, family or themselves.

As a fellow cynic, maybe the "hearts" bit is annoying because it's unlikely to happen most everywhere when lives are being severely disrupted. I sure wouldn't be a happy camper if it was me but I'd tolerate 'visitors' if the potential future was better than the past...

[Surferbeetle]

The IMF, in the 2009 World Economic Outlook, provides the following record of % changes in Iraq's GDP (page 195 of the pdf report):

2005 (-0.7%), 2006 (+6.2%), 2007 (+1.5%), 2008 (+9.8%)

The Economist/Economic Intelligence Unit provides the following Country Briefing forecast for 2009:

# We have lowered our forecasts for Iraq's fiscal deficit, after raising our oil price projections. Nevertheless, we still expect the budget to return an average deficit of US$15.6bn in 2009-10.
# Real GDP growth in 2009-10 is forecast to slow, from an estimated rate of 7.8% in 2008 to an average of 5.7%, as a tighter fiscal stance has a knock-on impact across the economy.
# Iraq's current-account deficit forecast has narrowed slightly, owing to the revision to our oil price projections. We now expect that the current account will return a deficit of US$9bn in 2009, narrowing to US$6.4bn in 2010.

The Iraqi Stock Exchange Website provides some March 2009 data:

ISX at 183.9 points on 31 March 2009