Warfare: Food Supply/Access

[Fuchs]

We are currently using fresh water at a rate beyond that at which it is being produced.

Two remarks;

a) it may be correct English, but "produced" is not really a good choice of words.

b) Water is a local, at most regional (along rivers or in water pipeline projects as known in Libya) resource.

An important consequence is that the solutions/adaptions need to be local or at most regional.

This is similar to the firewood sustainability problem, which can best be addressed on the local level.

Desertification and soil erosion problems are usually regional as well and require local (in)action.



Global(-sounding) discussions on subjects like these are not worthwhile in my opinion.

[Surferbeetle]

b) Water is a local, at most regional (along rivers or in water pipeline projects as known in Libya) resource.

An important consequence is that the solutions/adaptions need to be local or at most regional.

Arbitrary lines on maps have a history of causing problems....

Local boundaries are often a political definition, while the concept of drainage basins and aquifers are technical definitions. Rarely do their boundaries conicide. Effective problem solvers have to balance political, economic, and technical concerns in order to find lasting solutions...

Drainage basin by wikipedia

A drainage basin (also known as a watershed) is an extent or an area of land where surface water from rain and melting snow or ice converges to a single point, usually the exit of the basin, where the waters join another waterbody, such as a river, lake, reservoir, estuary, wetland, sea, or ocean. In closed drainage basins the water converges to a single point inside the basin, known as a sink, which may be a permanent lake, dry lake, or a point where surface water is lost underground.[1] The drainage basin includes both the streams and rivers that convey the water as well as the land surfaces from which water drains into those channels, and is separated from adjacent basins by a drainage divide.[2]

Aquifer by wikipedia

An aquifer is a wet underground layer of water-bearing permeable rock or unconsolidated materials (gravel, sand, or silt) from which groundwater can be usefully extracted using a water well. The study of water flow in aquifers and the characterization of aquifers is called hydrogeology. Related terms include aquitard, which is a bed of low permeability along an aquifer,[1] and aquiclude (or aquifuge), which is a solid, impermeable area underlying or overlying an aquifer. If the impermeable area overlies the aquifer pressure could cause it to become a confined aquifer.

[JJackson]

I won't quibble about the 'produce' but I was referring to planetary fresh water production when I wrote it (or at least the precipitation that falls on the land). The paragraph was taken from a post on another site which has quite a lot more information about the planet's water situation. In post 3 at the link I have included a graph, from the above linked report, which shows almost no countries are expected to be in credit by 2030. As watcher said "And this wasn't a bunch of 'enviro wacko' types at all" This report was commissioned by the likes of Nestle, Coca-Cola, Standard Chartered and similar 'greenies'. I agree that the problems are local but the problem is all the local problems have now 'keyholed' into a global one.
Over 50% of the worlds fresh water is now used for agriculture and over 50% of the worlds food comes from irrigated crops.
The planet has a lot of water but only 0.03% is accessible to terrestrial plants and animals.
More data, and more links, at the link (posts 3, 5 & 8 are most relevant to water others cover population and more general resource depletion)

Edit:
I was looking at the World Economic Forum 'Global Risks Report 2012' and noted an interesting change. The report collates risk data and graphs risks by plotting 'event likelihood' against 'event impact'. If you look at page 12 you will see another graph giving the top five risks for each of the last 6 years. This year 'water supply crisis' has appeared for the first time and is placed No.2 by impact and No.5 by likelihood. Another first time entry is 'food crisis' at No.3 by impact.

Fuel, food and water are in fact, to a degree, interchangeable in that fuel can be used to make fertilisers (5% of all natural gas goes into ammonia for nitrates) which with water can be used to grow plants for food or bio-fuels with which you can desalinate sea water or make fertiliser etc.

[Watcher In The Middle]

Just got hit upside the head by a 'wise olde owl' (no, not Ken - different 'wise olde owl'). One who is a forth generation farmer overseeing the running of a very large operation.

We were talking 'Commodities' (in general), and impacts of what we are seeing in the marketplace - copper, oil, metals of all types, grains, etc. He told me to really pay attention to Soybeans going forward, because they have pretty much decoupled from the other grains (like corn, wheat, etc.).

This is going to have some interesting side effects. South American (Brazil & Argentina) soybean production is down, and initial US reports are that farmers are actually planning on planting lower soybean acreage than last year. We'll see. Have my doubts based on current bean prices.

Here's an interesting table:
World Supply & Demand Table

Btw, there are differences in production numbers. The 2009 numbers for the US soybean production was 91.4 mil metric tons, from a different source. The link is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soybean

We produce 600% more than what China produces, about 60% more than what Brazil produces, and about 295% more than what Argentina produces.

And as a little aside, Argentina, with their expropriation of YPF, the Argentine petroleum company majority owned by Repsol (a Spanish firm), has just made their ability to export Soybeans much more difficult. You will likely see an army of lawyers at work claiming that all sales are actually being made by the Argentine government, and the proceeds from those sales could be held up in court as payment for the expropriation of YPF. Fun times!

As a point, if there is a soybean supply squeeze on both the #2 and #3 soybean suppliers, basic food prices in China are likely to increase. And rising food prices in China can create instability.

And China's trade surplus with the US has been shrinking, and they are not buying Treasuries anymore.

This is going to get interesting.

[davidbfpo]

I have re-opened this closed thread, to enable the next post. This thread started in 2008 and the last post was in 2012. It had 158 posts and 47,868 views.

[davidbfpo]

Found a link to this 2014 podcast by Professor Paul Rogers, from Bradford University, whose approach to security is different: Human Security and it is a broad brush analysis - which includes the role of food.
Link:http://www.tansey.org.uk/news/PRtalk.html

Food production and climate change starts at 14:54. To be fair the more I listen, it is interesting and just about fits here!

Since 2012 there have been a small number of posts on the purchase, development and sometimes using imported labour on agricultural land. IIRC with China and Saudi Arabia to the fore.

[davidbfpo]

A BBC News pointer to a Chatham House report; it starts with:

The world's food security is increasingly reliant on 14 "chokepoints" for trade, a think-tank report has warned.
UK-based Chatham House says more needs to be done to protect key transport routes such as the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal and the Turkish Straits.
Almost 25% of the world's food is traded on international markets.
This, the report says, makes food supply and prices vulnerable to unforeseen crises or climate change.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-40415756