Warfare: Food Supply/Access

[Norfolk]

But think about what the consequences would be in the international relations arena if all the sudden the US starts treating food exports the same way as OPEC treats oil.

Thoughts?

An intriguing point, to be sure, and not absolutely out of the realm of possibility. It would be very interesting to see what the great food staples conglomerates (Cargill, Archer-Daniels Midland, etc.) would make of such a development.

As to genetic diversity in food staples crops, of course there's the little matter of the modern banana possibly going extinct within a generation or so due to genetic manipulation by humans. And many Third World people rely on bananas like we rely on grains.

[Jedburgh]

A couple of recent pieces from the Chatham House, focusing on the potential future impact to the UK:

A Jan 08 Briefing Paper: UK Food Supply: Storm Clouds on the Horizon?

Summary Points

 In an environment of increasing uncertainty, the ability of global food production to meet rising demand is becoming recognized as an issue of fundamental importance. Constraints on the availability of energy, water and land are identified as being of particular significance.

 The Chatham House Food Supply Project is studying the effects of global trends on the networks that supply two staples, wheat and dairy products, to the UK market. The issues addressed in this paper featured in a series of interviews and discussions undertaken in 2007 with leading players within and around Britain’s wheat and dairy supply networks. They are presented in six sections: global demand, global supply, rises in commodity prices, supply network opinion on implications for the EU/UK food system, scenario development and conclusions.

 These preliminary findings will influence the development of four global scenarios that could shape the future of the UK’s food supply. Some of the interactions involved would create only a limited degree of change in Britain’s food supply arrangements; others could indicate a shift to a quite different UK supply dynamic.

 Britain as a society will need to make the right policy choices if it is to secure the kind of food supply that best supports its interests.

From the Feb 08 issue of CH's The World Today:

Britain's Food Supply: Lunch as a Strategic Issue

.....The dominant conventional view is that, as a rich society, Britain will always be able to buy the food it needs on world markets. But much will depend on the reaction of our competitors and trading partners to the emerging challenges. Could we identify new sources of supply if it became necessary? What would be the geo-political implications, particularly if faced by competitors who have already made food supply a strategic requirement and who may follow a foreign policy free of values regarded as essential for the west’s trade and development stance?

A fundamental change in the production and consumption of the last half-century may be in prospect. Food supply is once again on track to become a focus of international, and national, debate – and an issue of increasing political significance.

[Watcher In The Middle]

...rice also. WSJ article dated 12.15-16.2007 (Pg. B1).

Unfortunately the article is not available to non-subscribers.

Then there's this (from a different source):

The Russian government’s decree imposing a 40 percent export duty on wheat, meslin (wheat and rye mixed), and barley, but not less than EUR 0.105 per 1kg, will take effect on January 29, 2008. The document was signed by Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov on December 28. The measure, which almost quadruples Russia’s protective duties on grain exports, will apply until April 30, 2008.

On October 8, the Russian government decided to introduce export duties on wheat and barley, at the same time lowering import duties on milk, butter, cheese and sour cream. The export duty on grain was set at 10 percent of contract price but not less than EUR 22 per tonne, and at 30 percent for barley, but not less than EUR 70 per tonne.

Link is Here

[kehenry1]

I find these tariffs interesting since the probably outcome of reducing food stuffs from the global market to retain internally is -ta-da- sky rocketing prices.

But, just in case, I'm going to start investing in wheat futures. LOL

[JJackson]

More on rice shortages
Thais hold key to rice shortages
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7222043.stm

selil I think the term you were looking for is mono-culture and in the perpetual war between pathogens and our food crops the pathogens will always adapt faster (this is an inevitable result of the differences in their evolutionary genetic strategy). Loss of bio-diversity is a major long term problem and concern regarding pandemics not misplaced. The widespread use of infertile hybrids and genetic modification of food species giving improved yields will aggravate the problem as they promote a further curtailing in genetic diversity (only in the food crop not in the pathogen).

[selil]

More on rice shortages
Thais hold key to rice shortages
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7222043.stm

selil I think the term you were looking for is mono-culture and in the perpetual war between pathogens and our food crops the pathogens will always adapt faster (this is an inevitable result of the differences in their evolutionary genetic strategy). Loss of bio-diversity is a major long term problem and concern regarding pandemics not misplaced. The widespread use of infertile hybrids and genetic modification of food species giving improved yields will aggravate the problem as they promote a further curtailing in genetic diversity (only in the food crop not in the pathogen).

Thank JJackson... I believe mono-culture is exactly what they called it. The briefing I got on the topic and a subsequent video I was shown about Canada wheat really brought home the risks. I'd seen a few years back some stuff about pork and the risks of infection, but the feed crops really make me worry.

[JJackson]

The pig is very topical, in a pandemic context, at the moment. The HP AI A/H5N1 (AKA Bird Flu) needs to accumulate a few genetic changes in its RNA sequence to adapt to man. We do not really know what most of these are but one that we do know is a modification to the H (in H5N1). An area on the Hemagglutinin called the RBS binds to a sugar on the host cell surface before it can enter the cell. There is a small configurational difference between the versions of the sugar the virus binds in birds and humans, this makes it difficult for avian flus to infect people. The bad news – for us and the pigs - is that pigs have both isomers and can catch both human and bird flus. They can then act as mixing vessel recombining and reassorting the genetic material to create new flu strains.