Just got hit upside the head by a 'wise olde owl' (no, not Ken - different 'wise olde owl'). One who is a forth generation farmer overseeing the running of a very large operation.

We were talking 'Commodities' (in general), and impacts of what we are seeing in the marketplace - copper, oil, metals of all types, grains, etc. He told me to really pay attention to Soybeans going forward, because they have pretty much decoupled from the other grains (like corn, wheat, etc.).

This is going to have some interesting side effects. South American (Brazil & Argentina) soybean production is down, and initial US reports are that farmers are actually planning on planting lower soybean acreage than last year. We'll see. Have my doubts based on current bean prices.

Here's an interesting table:
World Supply & Demand Table

Btw, there are differences in production numbers. The 2009 numbers for the US soybean production was 91.4 mil metric tons, from a different source. The link is: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soybean

We produce 600% more than what China produces, about 60% more than what Brazil produces, and about 295% more than what Argentina produces.

And as a little aside, Argentina, with their expropriation of YPF, the Argentine petroleum company majority owned by Repsol (a Spanish firm), has just made their ability to export Soybeans much more difficult. You will likely see an army of lawyers at work claiming that all sales are actually being made by the Argentine government, and the proceeds from those sales could be held up in court as payment for the expropriation of YPF. Fun times!

As a point, if there is a soybean supply squeeze on both the #2 and #3 soybean suppliers, basic food prices in China are likely to increase. And rising food prices in China can create instability.

And China's trade surplus with the US has been shrinking, and they are not buying Treasuries anymore.

This is going to get interesting.