A couple of recent pieces from the Chatham House, focusing on the potential future impact to the UK:

A Jan 08 Briefing Paper: UK Food Supply: Storm Clouds on the Horizon?
Summary Points

 In an environment of increasing uncertainty, the ability of global food production to meet rising demand is becoming recognized as an issue of fundamental importance. Constraints on the availability of energy, water and land are identified as being of particular significance.

 The Chatham House Food Supply Project is studying the effects of global trends on the networks that supply two staples, wheat and dairy products, to the UK market. The issues addressed in this paper featured in a series of interviews and discussions undertaken in 2007 with leading players within and around Britain’s wheat and dairy supply networks. They are presented in six sections: global demand, global supply, rises in commodity prices, supply network opinion on implications for the EU/UK food system, scenario development and conclusions.

 These preliminary findings will influence the development of four global scenarios that could shape the future of the UK’s food supply. Some of the interactions involved would create only a limited degree of change in Britain’s food supply arrangements; others could indicate a shift to a quite different UK supply dynamic.

 Britain as a society will need to make the right policy choices if it is to secure the kind of food supply that best supports its interests.
From the Feb 08 issue of CH's The World Today:

Britain's Food Supply: Lunch as a Strategic Issue
.....The dominant conventional view is that, as a rich society, Britain will always be able to buy the food it needs on world markets. But much will depend on the reaction of our competitors and trading partners to the emerging challenges. Could we identify new sources of supply if it became necessary? What would be the geo-political implications, particularly if faced by competitors who have already made food supply a strategic requirement and who may follow a foreign policy free of values regarded as essential for the west’s trade and development stance?

A fundamental change in the production and consumption of the last half-century may be in prospect. Food supply is once again on track to become a focus of international, and national, debate – and an issue of increasing political significance.