Originally Posted by Ron Humphrey
Long and Short
I'm not quite sure there's really so much wrong with reasonable predictions based on known historical factors, rather that those predictions should never be blindly followed with upfront expectations that you don't know what you don't know until you get there
excellent.
Sam Liles
Selil Blog
Don't forget to duck Secret Squirrel
The scholarship of teaching and learning results in equal hatred from latte leftists and cappuccino conservatives.
All opinions are mine and may or may not reflect those of my employer depending on the chance it might affect funding, politics, or the setting of the sun. As such these are my opinions you can get your own.
Definition, please
Seli, could you define 'reliability' in this context, please?
I hope I am misunderstanding your usage, it sounds like a variation on the accuracy/precision thing.
Also, your gaussian curve of answers makes me antsy. Clustering around different possibilities invites more productive discussion.
It is a variation on the accuracy/precision element.
Reliability/repeatability does not have to be a bulls eye. It can be the same spot on the target but a clear miss. It has an unfortunate tendency to be related to causation but is more indicative of clustering.
The gaussian curve will occur in a large enough set of classes. I have NEVER had a perfect bell with one course of 20 students. I'm just not that consistent and the students, time of day, and so many other variables just keep it from happening. But, feeding five or six courses with an n+100+ and looking at that the curve looks like Monte Carlo data. I do have a course that has a dumbbell shape to them. F's and A's. That is because it has one project and you either pass or you don't. Some don't.
Sam Liles
Selil Blog
Don't forget to duck Secret Squirrel
The scholarship of teaching and learning results in equal hatred from latte leftists and cappuccino conservatives.
All opinions are mine and may or may not reflect those of my employer depending on the chance it might affect funding, politics, or the setting of the sun. As such these are my opinions you can get your own.
Van,
I like this website for all my definitional needs:
http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/reliable.php
Drill up or down for a 'splanation of what you need.
And they even have the targets http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/relandval.php
Sam Liles
Selil Blog
Don't forget to duck Secret Squirrel
The scholarship of teaching and learning results in equal hatred from latte leftists and cappuccino conservatives.
All opinions are mine and may or may not reflect those of my employer depending on the chance it might affect funding, politics, or the setting of the sun. As such these are my opinions you can get your own.
Swans and prediction
For those who are interested in 'Black Swans' here is French analyst's review:http://www.redanalysis.org/2013/01/2...-of-foresight/
Not that I'm obsessed with Mali; there is a link to a forecast of a coup in Mali in 2012 correctly, after some number crunching:http://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.c...asts-for-2013/
davidbfpo
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