Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
Far too early to expect any good analysis, especially as very few reporters likely to be on the ground, excluding French speakers.

If the civil war remains a new high level - what will the French reaction be? Limited to protection of French and other nationals? Secondly the EU intervention, planned to be based in Eastern Chad on the Darfur border, will disappear, far too dangerous for EU members, let alone logistics. With a knock-on effect on the Darfur intervention (EU, AU & UN). Wily Sudanese win again.

davidbfpo
France probably doesn't care if Deby gets the boot and in fact may welcome it given Deby's ham-handed attempts at extorting the west over mineral resources. France will, however, do whatever they think is necessary to protect their mineral interests in the country. While there is almost certainly a radical Islamic facet to the current rebellion but it is not a dominate one. In all likelyhood France, and any other foreign powers who have interests in Chad are calculating whether or not they can do business with the rebels if they win. I would not even be suprised if there were some low level exploritory talks going on with the rebels, though I wouldn't bet the house on it.

I doubt that this will have much effect on the horn but whenever this happens it creates huge headaches for Niger and Gabon.

SFC W