Chad (merged thread)

[Stan]

Interesting this near immediate flare up when I think back on all the French involvement from the late 80s. Then it was US Hawk batteries (transported by US C-5s via Zaire), on occasion a few aging Mirage IIIs on Kinshasa's tarmac, and lately the Arche de Zoe affair (The French accused of kidnapping Chadian children). I'm certain that's done wonders for the scrutiny of humanitarian and other aid organizations in the region.

Back to battle - The rebels accuse the French army of feeding strategic information to the Chadian army thanks to the their Mirage jets which regularly over fly the rebel border hide-outs.

France, which has more than 1,000 troops stationed in Chad, says it keeps a check on rebel movements in order to protect its citizens in N'Djamena from possible attack.

The UFDD say they consider the French army an enemy and have gone on to issue a statement declaring a state of war against all foreign troops on Chadian soil.

There goes any hope of foreign military protection to aid workers

Well, they are helping US Expats

The U.S. Embassy requests that all American citizens still in N’Djamena who would like to be evacuated should prepare to depart immediately, and identify themselves to the French military, who will retrieve American citizens to escort them to the airport.

[davidbfpo]

From another website an early view of what has just happened:

http://counterterrorismblog.org/ Title Chad's Future Taliban enters capital while the West is asleep.....It was indeed a Sudanese-backed operation to change the regime in Chad, and backed by Wahabi circles, as a preemptive move to crumble the forthcoming humanitarian operation in Darfur.

davidbfpo

[Rex Brynen]

From another website an early view of what has just happened:

http://counterterrorismblog.org/ Title Chad's Future Taliban enters capital while the West is asleep.....It was indeed a Sudanese-backed operation to change the regime in Chad, and backed by Wahabi circles, as a preemptive move to crumble the forthcoming humanitarian operation in Darfur.

davidbfpo

Ahh, Walid Phares at his best....

The insurgency in Chad is far, FAR more complex than the link suggests. Certainly, some of the rebels likely enjoy Sudanese backing. However, Débay's amendment of the constitution (to allow himself a third term), rampant corruption, authoritarianism, his reliance on his own Zagawa community (which itself has fractured), and the usual lure of capturing the state to siphon off its resources are all at play here. Moreover, Sudan is far from the only neighbour that he has alienated.

On top of this, Phares labels both the Sudanese Janjaweed (Darfuri Arab) militia and the Sudanese government as "jihadi". Neither label fits. The former are driven by a combination of mercenary motives, economic struggles over land, and ethno-tribal tensions; the former certainly utilize Islam as a rallying cry, but also has repeatedly arrested or detained Hassan al-Turabi, the leading Islamist figure in the country, and (post-9/11) provided significant intelligence to the US on al-Qa'ida.

[Beelzebubalicious]

What are the implications for Sudan now and for stability in the Horn in general? Any good analysis or information out there...?

[davidbfpo]

Far too early to expect any good analysis, especially as very few reporters likely to be on the ground, excluding French speakers.

If the civil war remains a new high level - what will the French reaction be? Limited to protection of French and other nationals? Secondly the EU intervention, planned to be based in Eastern Chad on the Darfur border, will disappear, far too dangerous for EU members, let alone logistics. With a knock-on effect on the Darfur intervention (EU, AU & UN). Wily Sudanese win again.

davidbfpo

[wm]

Far too early to expect any good analysis, especially as very few reporters likely to be on the ground, excluding French speakers.

If the civil war remains a new high level - what will the French reaction be? Limited to protection of French and other nationals? Secondly the EU intervention, planned to be based in Eastern Chad on the Darfur border, will disappear, far too dangerous for EU members, let alone logistics. With a knock-on effect on the Darfur intervention (EU, AU & UN). Wily Sudanese win again.

davidbfpo

Interesting that new sources are now hinting that Libya is brokering talks. Reminds me of early 80's incursion in Chad by the good Colonel Q. Perhaps he is at it again, only this time trying a sham diplomatic effort after using "Sudanese" forces as his shills so that he can walk into Chad as an occupying peacemaker. Should that start to materialize, I wonder what may come out of the Elysee Palace. I suspect it may be be something other than Sarko and Carla whispering sweet nothings to each other.

[Uboat509]

Far too early to expect any good analysis, especially as very few reporters likely to be on the ground, excluding French speakers.

If the civil war remains a new high level - what will the French reaction be? Limited to protection of French and other nationals? Secondly the EU intervention, planned to be based in Eastern Chad on the Darfur border, will disappear, far too dangerous for EU members, let alone logistics. With a knock-on effect on the Darfur intervention (EU, AU & UN). Wily Sudanese win again.

davidbfpo

France probably doesn't care if Deby gets the boot and in fact may welcome it given Deby's ham-handed attempts at extorting the west over mineral resources. France will, however, do whatever they think is necessary to protect their mineral interests in the country. While there is almost certainly a radical Islamic facet to the current rebellion but it is not a dominate one. In all likelyhood France, and any other foreign powers who have interests in Chad are calculating whether or not they can do business with the rebels if they win. I would not even be suprised if there were some low level exploritory talks going on with the rebels, though I wouldn't bet the house on it.

I doubt that this will have much effect on the horn but whenever this happens it creates huge headaches for Niger and Gabon.

SFC W

[Stan]

In this morning video, France’s official position is fairly neutral, but still siding with President Idriss Deby. That is Deby was free and fairly elected with European monitoring bodies. Several of the article bleeds indicate that the rebels feel the French are the enemy – assisting the Chadian government from their Mirages. More interesting was the Chadian MOIs most recent version…we sent the Sudanese mercenaries more than 700 clicks out of town after being assisted by Sudanese helicopters and Antonov aircraft.

All Africa has a good article with a bit of history for those late in the game.

The closest the rebels had previously come to seizing control of the capital and the country was in April 2006. One month before presidential elections...That attack failed in part because the rebels, most apparently unfamiliar with N'djamena's unnamed streets and lack of sign posts, lost their way when they reached the city centre and attacked the empty National Assembly building

Deby - survivor?

Chad's President Idriss Deby is no stranger to fighting for survival...A French-trained helicopter pilot and former colonel in Chad's army, in 1989 Deby formed his own rebel movement in Sudan, with the backing of Khartoum.

Said by analysts to be a master strategist, in 1990 he swept back into Chad and seized control of the vast, semi-desert country with barely a shot fired.

Looks like Libreville will soon be enjoying an otherwise off-season boost in Expat and Official visitors (err, refugees)

[Tom Odom]

Ahh, Walid Phares at his best....

The insurgency in Chad is far, FAR more complex than the link suggests. Certainly, some of the rebels likely enjoy Sudanese backing. However, Débay's amendment of the constitution (to allow himself a third term), rampant corruption, authoritarianism, his reliance on his own Zagawa community (which itself has fractured), and the usual lure of capturing the state to siphon off its resources are all at play here. Moreover, Sudan is far from the only neighbour that he has alienated.

On top of this, Phares labels both the Sudanese Janjaweed (Darfuri Arab) militia and the Sudanese government as "jihadi". Neither label fits. The former are driven by a combination of mercenary motives, economic struggles over land, and ethno-tribal tensions; the former certainly utilize Islam as a rallying cry, but also has repeatedly arrested or detained Hassan al-Turabi, the leading Islamist figure in the country, and (post-9/11) provided significant intelligence to the US on al-Qa'ida.

Thanks Rex! The good mssr Phares was just here lecturing--I skipped. Something about a Jesuit trained Lebanese I find less than balanced.

Best

Tom