ISN Security Watch, 4 Feb 08: Chad, Sudan, and a Risky Western Game
....At stake is Chad's oil, which came on stream in 2003, granting Deby lavish revenues to fund his counterinsurgency. Deby has manipulated Chad's constitution to allow him a third term as president, and his government is notably corrupt, abrogating a World Bank-led scheme to have oil revenues spent on health, education and invested for the future.

Two of the main rebel factions are headed by former Deby apparatchiks and family members, who doubtless have designs on the oil largesse. As does the NCPs patron in Beijing, which has largely stood by Khartoum throughout the Darfur catastrophe, despite the bad publicity in the run-up to this years' Olympic Games.

With south Sudan likely to secede in 2011 and take with it much of Sudan's oil - though north-south borders have not been decided, as the NCP seeks the best line possible - new oil sources via a client regime in Chad would be welcomed in Beijing, as a sanction-covered Sudan is out of bounds for western petroleum investment. South Sudan would not be out of bounds, however, and Beijing would have to contend with western oil company rivals in Juba.

Chad provides an alternative, and Deby himself has sought to curry Chinese favor by switching diplomatic allegiance from Taipei, which in hindsight looks like a pre-emptive move to show the Chinese that they did not need to depose him to access Chad's oil.....